Target Stock Has Been Crushed. Here’s Why I’m Not Giving Up on It.

Few large-cap consumer stocks have swung as violently as Target (NYSE:TGT | TGT Price Prediction) over the past year. Shares bottomed near $81.20 in late 2025, but a turnaround under CEO Michael Fiddelke, a blowout Q2, and a fresh tariff-refund tailwind have driven the stock up 66.28% year to date. Even after that rally, I still see room to run.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Target is $183.19, implying 12.2% upside over the next 12 months, with a buy rating and high confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Target is finally producing the traffic, comp, and margin recovery investors have waited three years for. The multiple still prices in a broken story despite the operational turnaround. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target captures that valuation gap.

A Beaten-Down Retailer Snaps Back

Target has staged one of the sharpest reversals in retail. Shares are up 15.14% over the past month and 66.74% over the past year, now trading essentially at the 52-week high of $161.98.

Q2 delivered: revenue of $26.54 billion grew 5.27%, comps rose 3.8%, traffic climbed 3.6%, and adjusted EPS of $4.11 blew past the $2.3374 consensus. That includes a $1.65 per share benefit from $994 million in IEEPA tariff refunds, but even excluding refunds, underlying EPS grew about 20% year over year. Management raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $9.90 to $10.90.

Why Bulls See a Breakout to $200+

The bull case rests on durability. Digital comps accelerated to 8.7%, same-day delivery grew more than 25%, and non-merchandise revenue (Roundel ads, Target+ marketplace, Target Circle 360) jumped over 20%, with Roundel billings up nearly 20% and Target Plus GMV up more than 40%.

These high-margin, high-multiple businesses hide inside a discount retailer’s P&E. Layer in $8.3B of remaining buyback authorization, resuming repurchases in the back half, and a raised sales outlook, and the bull path to $204.67 aligns with 32 bullish analyst ratings on file.

What Could Go Wrong

The tariff refund flatters the numbers. That $1.65 per share is non-recurring, and management expects only modest additional refunds. Home and apparel remain underperforming, competitive pressure from Walmart and Costco is unrelenting, and capex is up 27% year over year.

Heavy capex funds roughly 130 remodels and 24 new stores this year, investments bulls argue drive the traffic gains now showing in comps. The bear path lands near $150.16, or about 8% downside.

How Target Stacks Up Against Walmart and Costco

Walmart (NYSE:WMT) posted 5.9% revenue growth with adjusted EPS of $0.81, but trades at 40x forward earnings, more than double Target’s 19x.

Costco (NASDAQ:COST) posted 9.8% comparable sales in its most recent quarter, but trades at 42x forward earnings. TGT trades at less than half the peer multiple.

Against that field, our price target looks conservative. TGT needs only a modest re-rating as the turnaround extends.

Why the Setup Still Screens Attractive

My verdict is a buy at $163.34, with a 24/7 Wall St. price target of $183.19 and 90% confidence. The widening valuation gap versus peers combined with reaccelerating traffic tips the scale.

I’d be a buyer here as long as comparable sales stay positive through the holiday quarter. I’d step aside if Q3 traffic rolls over or home and apparel deteriorate further.

Here is where our model projects Target could trade, assuming the current turnaround holds.

These projections assume Target continues executing on its refreshed strategy. Meaningful deviation could come from tariff policy shifts or a sustained recovery in home and apparel.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.