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Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO | AVGO Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal Q3 2026 results today at 4:15 PM ET. With a market cap of roughly $1.75 trillion, this report will likely offer the investment world one of the best real-time insights into the current state of the AI infrastructure trade.
Beat, Guide, and a Sharp Reset
Q2 FY26 delivered record numbers: revenue of $22.19 billion (+47.87% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $2.44, and free cash flow of $10.26 billion, or 46% of revenue. AI semiconductor revenue reached $10.80 billion, up 143% and above management’s forecast.
Yet the market’s reaction was harsh. AVGO fell 12.59% on the day and 7.21% over 30 days. The stock is down 5.03% over the past month and up 7.21% YTD. CEO Hock Tan’s Q3 guidance of $29.4 billion in revenue, up 84% year on year, sets an unusually high bar heading into tonight.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q3 FY26 Estimate |
YoY Change |
FY26 Estimate |
FY27 Estimate |
| Revenue |
$29.44B |
+84% |
$106.04B |
$173.57B |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) |
$3.2382 |
+91.6% |
$11.626 |
$19.5323 |
Revisions skew positive: Q3 EPS saw 25 upward revisions against 9 downward over 30 days, and FY27 EPS moved from $18.22 to $19.53 over 90 days. The setup implies growth reacceleration, not just AI mix.
What I’m Watching Tonight: Custom Silicon, Networking, and Visibility Through 2028
Tonight, I’ll be watching the AI semiconductor line first. Management guided $16 billion for Q3 and $56 billion for full-year FY26 AI revenue, with second-half AI revenue expected to double from the first half. Q2 AI bookings alone were over $30 billion.
Analysts will also focus on customer commitments. Broadcom signed a long-term TPU and networking deal with Google, secured over 1 gigawatt for Anthropic in 2026 plus another 5 gigawatts from 2027, is tracking OpenAI production for late 2026, and will deliver 3 gigawatts of Meta MTIA XPUs through 2028.
I’ll also watch networking momentum. AI networking hit almost 40% of Q2 AI revenue, with the 200 terabit next-gen switch tape-out due this quarter. Infrastructure Software is guided to $8.9 billion, up 31% year on year, a sharp acceleration from Q2’s 9%. Finally, gross margin mix matters: TPUs carry lower margins, offset partially by “very rich margins” in networking.
Earnings History
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
Day-Of Move |
1-Week Move |
30-Day Move |
| Q2 FY26 |
+1.79% |
-12.59% |
-7.96% |
-7.21% |
| Q1 FY26 |
+1.32% |
+4.8% |
+0.96% |
+0.36% |
| Q4 FY25 |
+4.27% |
-11.43% |
-5.44% |
-4.7% |
| Q3 FY25 |
+1.6% |
+9.41% |
+7.46% |
+0.45% |
On average, shares moved -0.16% seven days after earnings across the past nine reports.
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