Jim Cramer Flips the Script: Why Older Investors Should Ditch Growth Stocks for 30-Year Treasuries
Jim Cramer just told retirees holding Nvidia and Apple to reconsider what "safe" actually means, and the math behind his argument is harder to dismiss than it sounds.
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Jim Cramer used his Mad Money broadcast on September 10, 2026 to make a case that has been slowly building all year: long-dated Treasuries are once again a serious rival to stocks for investors at or near retirement. His comment, in full: “But historically it’s not so bad to get a 5.3% risk free return. Believe me, when you get older you can still own some Nvidia and some Apple. You might like a little Chevron or a Procter too.”
The framing matters because it positions the long bond as a credible core holding again for older investors, with mega-cap tech relegated to a satellite role while retirees keep their winners.
What the 30-Year Yield Actually Is
On September 11, 2026, the 30-year Treasury constant maturity yield closed at 5.35%. The rest of the curve read 4.96% at the 10-year, 5.38% at the 20-year, 4.63% at the 2-year, and 4.07% at the 3-month bill. A constant maturity yield is a standardized figure the Treasury publishes by interpolating from actively traded issues, so a 30-year reading always reflects a bond with roughly that time to maturity, even as individual issues age.
The long bond matters specifically because it locks a coupon for the longest span the government offers. For someone planning income into their eighties, that duration is the point.
Why Cramer Is Making the Comparison Now
Look at what a retiree gets from the two names Cramer called out.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) carries a market cap of roughly $5.27 trillion and a trailing P/E near 44. The board just raised the payout, with the latest quarterly dividend at $0.25 and an annualized forward rate of $1.00, but the yield still rounds to essentially nothing. The stock is up 17.32% year to date and 875.38% over five years. Q2 FY2027 revenue hit $96.22 billion, up 105.8% year over year, with Data Center revenue of $89.02 billion on the Blackwell Ultra ramp. Those are extraordinary numbers, and they come with beta of 2.217.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is the calmer name, but only by comparison. Market cap sits near $4.85 trillion, trailing P/E around 43, quarterly dividend at $0.27 for a yield of roughly 0.32%. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue reached $109.42 billion, up 16.4% year over year, detailed in the company’s 8-K filing. Shares have run 44.98% over the past year and 22.56% year to date.
The Real Tradeoff for Retirees
The 5.35% on the 30-year is contractual and backed by the U.S. government. A dividend is a board decision every quarter. That is the key distinction. In exchange for accepting that decision risk, an equity holder gets two things a bond does not deliver: dividends that can grow, and a share price that can compound. Apple has walked its quarterly payout from $0.23 in early 2023 to $0.27 in 2026, and NVIDIA has authorized $99 billion in remaining buybacks.
The catch on the bond side is that yield is only risk free if the bond is held to maturity. Sell early, and the price fluctuates. The catch on the equity side is valuation. Paying 43 times earnings for a company with a 0.32% yield leaves no margin if growth slows. This is the same reframing behind our free guide on why the 4% rule is wobbling and what an income-first approach looks like instead.
What to Watch Next
The 30-year has drifted higher, from 5.24% on September 4 to 5.35% on September 11. Any further move up rewards new bond buyers and pressures long-duration equity multiples. NVIDIA’s Q3 FY2027 guide of $108.0 billion plus or minus 2% will test whether AI capex still supports a 44 P/E when Treasuries pay north of 5%. That is the calculation older investors are actually running.
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Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
