Up 275% This Year, Micron (MU) Is Still a No-Brainer Buy Before September 30
Micron's September 30 earnings report could be the most important catalyst in its history, and three specific numbers will determine whether the AI memory bull case holds or breaks entirely.
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Keep an eye on Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) into the September 30 earnings report. The stock is up 276.99% year to date at $1,075.31, sits on a roughly $1.21 trillion market cap, and has advanced 15.92% in the past week. Today it trades 1.9% lower. That frames the setup.
AI Memory Is the Business Now
High bandwidth memory (HBM) is stacked DRAM that sits next to AI accelerators and feeds them data fast enough to keep the compute fed. Micron supplies HBM, DDR5, and NAND SSDs into cloud, data center, and edge AI systems. Management stated “HBM4 12 high volume ramp is tracking twice as fast as HBM3E 12 high” and has already shipped over $1 billion in HBM4 revenue. Cloud Memory alone did $13.77 billion last quarter. Micron has also signed 16 Strategic Customer Agreements carrying cumulative minimum-price revenue of approximately $100 billion across the remaining term. That is contracted AI demand.
September 30 Catalyst Investors Cannot Ignore
Micron has confirmed its fiscal Q4 report for September 30, 2026, after market close. Guidance is revenue of $50.0 billion plus or minus $1.0 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of about 86%, and non-GAAP EPS of $31.00 plus or minus $1.00. Watch the HBM revenue disclosure, the gross margin against 86%, and any update to the $100 billion RPO figure. Those three lines confirm or break the thesis.
Room to Run Above the Rally
The obvious objection is that MU has run too far. The math says otherwise. Forward EPS consensus for fiscal 2027 is $156.53, pushing the forward P/E to 7 against a trailing P/E of 24. The PEG ratio sits at 0.15. Analyst target price is $1,515 with 44 Buy ratings against 4 Holds and zero Sells. Head-to-head against the loudest AI comparable, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Micron trades at a fraction of NVIDIA’s forward multiple while growing revenue at 346% year-over-year. Cheaper stock, faster growth, same AI backbone.
Risk, Dismissed
Insider net direction is selling, and capex hit $7.83 billion last quarter. Fair, but management expects tight DRAM and NAND conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027, and the balance sheet holds $24.995 billion in cash. A cyclical stock with a multi-year supply shortfall and a fortress balance sheet still has runway.
Keep an eye on MU into September 30.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
