Price Prediction: 5 Years From Now, This Could Be Nvidia Stock’s Price

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) just reported a quarter that most companies would need ten years to build. Revenue reached $96.22 billion, up 105.85% year over year. Data Center brought in $89.023 billion, and networking alone added $40.313 billion.

CEO Jensen Huang put it simply: “AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue.”

Even so, the stock is up only 20.86% this year. Sales doubled and the stock trailed far behind. My question is simple: can NVIDIA reach $500 by 2031?

What’s Holding NVIDIA Back Right Now

Shares rose 2.52% over the past week and 5.67% over the past month. They still trade below the $236 52-week high. Bloomberg says the stock is flashing a warning sign as valuation falls. Barron’s reported a pullback after Huang suggested a drastic alternative to AI regulation. The earnings call points to real friction.

Memory prices are climbing faster than planned, and margins should bottom at 71% to 72% in Q4. Guidance includes no China data center compute revenue. Supply obligations have reached $279 billion.

Critics also call the nearly 50 billion NVIDIA has invested in AI labs circular financing. With a beta of 2.217, each of these concerns moves the stock hard.

Wall Street Sees 45.7% Upside. Our Model Says 18.9%

The consensus target is $327.7, which implies 45.7% upside. Analysts assign 9 strong buy ratings, 48 buy ratings, 2 hold ratings and 1 sell. Our one-year forecast stands at $266.42, or 18.94% upside.

The one-year range runs from $230.75 to $310.1, and model confidence is high at 0.9.

Over five years, I think the analysts are too conservative. 95% of them are bullish. Yet earnings growth adds only 0.03 to our factor after mega-cap muting. In just 90 days, the FY2028 EPS estimate jumped from $12.6737 to $15.6826. Over the past 30 days there were 42 upward revisions and zero cuts. Estimates keep running behind actual results.

Here’s What It Takes for NVIDIA to Reach $500

Reaching $500 at the current price of $224.87 requires a gain of 122.4%, or about 17.3% a year. Given forward EPS of $13.0579, $500 would mean a forward P/E of 38x. The forecast already implies 32x, so the bold target needs about 6x of additional multiple expansion.

Earnings growth closes most of that gap. On FY2028 consensus EPS, $500 works out to only 32x. Management expects revenue growth of approximately 70% in fiscal 2028 while still supply limited.

Vera Rubin gets $40 billion per gigawatt, compared with $25 billion for Blackwell. AWS is deploying 2 million more GPUs. Neocloud revenue sharing adds a recurring stream: “we get paid twice.” The main risk is that hyperscalers slow their spending or switch to custom silicon.

Where NVIDIA Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power

At $224.87, NVIDIA trades at 17x forward earnings. That is cheap for a business whose sales doubled. Shares sit between the $163.9 low and the $236 high.

Over ten years the stock has returned 14145.56%. Today’s low multiple gives the bull case room to work without extreme assumptions.

$500 Is a Stretch, But Here’s Why It’s Possible

Reaching $500 requires 122.4% upside, which is above our five-year bull case of $482.87. I see it as a stretch with a clear path.

The thesis requires Vera Rubin to ramp on schedule, memory supply to improve, and non-hyperscaler demand to keep growing. A sharp pullback in AI capex would undermine the thesis. Such gains won’t happen every year, but we’ve outlined the path for how NVIDIA could reach $500 in 2031.

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