Saudi Arabia ‘Big Winner’ Of Iran War, With Kingdom’s Oil Revenues Soaring To $210 Billion, As Trump Ponders Escalating Conflict After Midterms
While most analysts focus on oil supply disruptions and rising prices, one economist argues the real story is who is quietly pocketing an extraordinary windfall as the conflict drags on, and why they want it to continue.
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Economist Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution argues that “The Saudi Kingdom is perhaps the only winner in this war.” In a post titled “Saudi Arabia Is Winning This War,” he makes two key points. Most coverage has picked up only the first.
- Before the war: 7 mb/d exports and Brent at $60 implied $150 billion in annual revenues., according to Robin J Brooks Substack
- Height of conflict (March-April): Exports fell to 4 mb/d with Brent around $110, generating $160 billion annualized., according to Robin J Brooks Substack
- Now: 5.5 mb/d exports with Brent near $105 imply $210 billion, a $60 billion rise from pre-war levels., according to Robin J Brooks Substack
At the war’s worst moment, exports had dropped by roughly three million barrels a day, yet Saudi revenue remained above pre-war levels. “Higher oil prices more than offset the fall in export volumes.”
For scale, Brooks notes that Saudi nominal GDP has averaged around $1 trillion in recent years, so that’s a windfall worth 6% of GDP. Fortune separately reported a windfall of more than 6% of GDP. Brooks also says the buffer is deep: at 5.5 mb/d, Brent would have to fall meaningfully below $75 before the Kingdom ends up worse off than before the war. He adds that Brent is up 75% since early 2026. In his view, the attack on the East-West pipeline gave a misleading picture of a Kingdom under pressure. Brooks credits that pipeline. It bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and kept exports from ever reaching zero: “Saudi Arabia never saw its oil exports fall to zero at the height of hostilities.”
According to FRED data, Brent’s settled spot price was $113.96 on September 29, 2026, and $119.97 the day before, on September 28. Both readings are above Brooks’s assumption of roughly $105, which makes his estimate look conservative. As of that September 29 reading, Brent was up 27.0% over the past month. Its trailing-year high was $138.21 on April 7, 2026, and its low was $59.93 on December 16, 2025. WTI settled at $96.16 on September 29.
Brooks supports the U.S. blockade: “There’s good reasons to stick with the blockade, which I’m strongly in favor of. Iran’s economy is imploding, with its currency, the Rial, in freefall.” He notes that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have lobbied Washington to maintain it. He adds: “It’s important to know when people are ‘talking their book.’ The Saudis and the UAE clearly are, according to Robin J Brooks Substack. If anything, they should be made to contribute meaningfully to the cost the US is bearing to ensure safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Reports on the size of the new deployment differ slightly. The Wall Street Journal reported a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops, and Al Jazeera cited 10,000, while Fortune reported 9,000. The deployment, which includes a Marine expeditionary unit, joins roughly 50,000 U.S. troops already in the Middle East. By late November, the presence is reported to include three carrier strike groups and two amphibious groups near Iran.
The New York Post reported the news. The president is considering a post-midterm Iran assault. In a Time interview, he said it is possible he increases bombing after the midterms. He warned that Iran would act properly or would not be around very long. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said forces are “ready to go” if ordered.
Some analysts view the buildup as leverage in indirect talks. The president has also suggested the war could end soon, and ABC News reported that he hasn’t made a final decision and is unhappy with negotiations.
Robin Brooks writes that “The longer this conflict lasts, the better for Saudi Arabia.” Track three indicators: whether Brent stays above $75, whether Saudi export volumes keep recovering, and whether the buildup ends in strikes or a agreed deal.
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AJ spent 10 years writing about financial markets at The Motley Fool. His coverage centers on technology stocks and the broader macroeconomic trends, from interest rates to geopolitics, that shape where markets are headed next. AJ is drawn to the stories where big-picture economics and individual companies collide.
