Live update #2

Applied Digital’s Bull vs Bear Case Ahead of Q1 Earnings Tonight

From live coverage: Live: Will Applied Digital Fall on Q1 Earnings Tonight After Sinking 6% Intraday?
APLD
Applied Digital

Thesis check


intact$24.00 -5.3% today
“Signed AI leases convert into durable recurring rent faster than Applied Digital burns cash”

Bull case
  • Roughly $36 billion in signed lease revenue standing behind the build-out
  • 175 MW now live at Polaris Forge 1, the first real test of recurring base rent
  • Operating cash flow positive at $133 million in Q2 FY2026
Bear case
  • Gross margin swung from 42.5% in Q1 FY2026 to 15.7%, leaving lease economics unproven at scale
  • Street still models a loss of $0.3023 per share on $124.57 million in revenue
  • Revenue expected to land below last quarter's fit-out-heavy total

The key assumptions for Applied Digital's Bull Case still hold: the backlog is signed and the first 175 MW is energized. The swing factor is the recurring base rent line we flagged this afternoon. A clean step-up in lease revenue with margin recovering toward prior-year levels strengthens the thesis, while another quarter carried by fit-out revenue at a compressed margin would be bearish.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Applied Digital Q1 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Applied Digital’s Q1 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Tune in to the earnings call tonight at 5 PM EST for more updates.

APLD Reaches $36B in Contracted Revenue With Big EPS Beat

Thomas Richmond
APLD
Applied Digital

Q1 2027

4:43pm ET

EPS
-$0.01
est -$0.30
+96.7%

Revenue
$342M
est $125M
+174.4%

Revenue climbed 432% year over year as HPC hosting at the Polaris Forge campuses ramped, far exceeding expectations. Applied Digital now has about $36 billion of contracted revenue over initial base terms.

Analysts Are Bullish on APLD With Stock Trading Near 52-Week Low

Thomas Richmond
APLD
Applied Digital

Valuation · as of Oct 7

4:05pm ET

$23.81-6.0%Target $66.43 · +179.0%
52-wk low $19.0052-wk high $50.73

Price/Sales
12.1×
EV/EBITDA
-7.4×
Price/Book
4.5×
Market cap $7.4B · Revenue +406.6% YoY
2 Strong buy11 Buy2 Hold

At $23.81, Applied Digital sits within a few dollars of its 52-week low of $19 and less than half its $50.73 high, even with revenue up 406.6% year over year and 12x sales. No earnings multiple exists yet, with EV/EBITDA at -7.4, and the $66.43 consensus target from 13 buy ratings against 2 holds is nearly triple the price.

Applied Digital Q1 Earnings Are Out - Stock Up 3% on Results

Thomas Richmond

Applied Digital just reported fiscal Q1 2027 earnings, with shares initially up roughly 3% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $341.9 million vs. $124.57 million expected
  • Adjusted EPS: -$0.01 vs. -$0.30 expected
  • Adjusted Revenue: $300.4 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $64.4 million
  • Net Operating Income: $58.8 million

Quick Read:

Applied Digital crushed expectations, with adjusted EPS nearly reaching breakeven and reported revenue soaring 322% year over year.

The top-line beat was enormous, while $64.4 million in adjusted EBITDA and $58.8 million in NOI provide an early look at earnings power as more AI data center capacity comes online.

The company reported a GAAP net loss attributable to common shareholders of $221.0 million, or $0.76 per share.

Applied Digital Says Another 75 MW Is Ready for Service at Polaris Forge 1

Thomas Richmond

While investors continue waiting for Applied Digital’s earnings results, the company just posted a fresh construction update across its North Dakota campuses.

Applied Digital said another 75 MW is now Ready for Service at Polaris Forge 1, bringing the campus to 250 MW. The company is also preparing for the building’s first utility power energization, while generator and mechanical equipment installation progresses.

Elsewhere, commissioning continues at Polaris Forge 2, while construction at Polaris Forge 3 is moving vertically as additional precast wall panels are installed.

The update is notable because execution and bringing additional capacity online remain a big piece of Applied Digital’s growth story.

We're Still Waiting for Applied Digital's Q1 Results

Thomas Richmond

Applied Digital’s fiscal Q1 results are now running about 10 minutes later than expected.

We’ll update this live blog as soon as results are out!

Analysts' Top Questions for Applied Digital Ahead of Q1 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
APLD
Applied Digital

Call preview · Q1 FY2027

3:49pm ET

Wed, Oct 7
Earnings call · after close

Project financing and capital structure has come up on all four of the last earnings calls, and after this afternoon's look at the buildout burn, that is the thread most likely to set the after-hours move tonight. Analysts have pressed just as consistently on lease economics and development yields, so management's answer on how the next tranche of capacity gets funded, may be the most important parts of the earnings call tonight.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26
  • Hyperscaler demand & lease pipeline
  • Project financing & capital structure
  • Execution capacity & growth governors
  • Lease economics & development yields
  • Polaris Forge 1 & 2 development
  • Power availability & Base Electron

Applied Digital’s $1.16 Billion FCF Burn Is the Number to Watch Tonight

Thomas Richmond
APLD
Applied Digital

Cash flow · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026

3:11pm ET

-$1.16BFree cash flow · Q2 2026
Operating CF $133M · Capex $1.29B · Returned to holders $2M

Operating cash flow has turned positive and reached $133 million in Q2 2026, but capex of $1.29 billion in the same quarter swamped it for free cash flow of roughly negative $1.2 billion. Every dollar is going into buildout, with just $2 million returned to shareholders in the latest quarter. That spending curve is the real context for tonight's numbers on the 175 MW now live at Polaris Forge 1.

Free cash flow by quarter

$-0.05B$-0.65B$-1.2B

APLD Revenue Doubled Last Quarter, But Gross Margin Crashed to 15.7%

Thomas Richmond
APLD
Applied Digital

Margin story · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026

3:01pm ET

Gross
15.7%-4.7pp YoY
Operating
-45.2%+8.3pp YoY
Net
-42.5%+95.7pp YoY

Gross margin has swung wildly, from 42.5% in Q1 2026 down to 15.7% in Q2 2026 as revenue doubled to $259 million while operating margin stayed deep in the red at -45.2%. Tonight's test is whether recurring base rent from the live Polaris Forge 1 capacity lifts gross margin back toward the 40% zone, which is the cleanest read on whether the lease model is actually scaling.

Operating margin by quarter

-17.9%-37.0%-56.1%

Wall Street Is Betting Big on APLD: 7 Funds Added, Just 1 Trimmed

Thomas Richmond
APLD
Applied Digital

Tracked 13F positioning

2:31pm ET

$1.1Bacross 11 tracked filers
7 added · 1 trimmed · 4 new

  • Situational Awareness

    $469M—

  • Two Sigma Investments LLC

    $384M+5.5%

  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc

    $113M-0.1%

  • Balyasny Asset Management LP

    $50M+1.4%

  • Millennium Management LLC

    $40M+11%

  • Tiger Global Management LLC

    $33MNew

  • Point72 Asset Management LP

    $29MNew

  • Marshall Wace LLP

    $8M—

+ 3 more tracked holders

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Across 11 filers, seven added and only one trimmed Applied Digital as of the June 30 quarter end, with Tiger Global and Point72 among four fresh positions and zero exits. That disclosure is roughly 45 days stale and reflects positioning as of quarter end, framing the institutional setup heading into tonight's earnings report.

Stay On This Page to Receive Live $APLD Q1 Earnings Updates

Thomas Richmond

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically.

We expect Applied Digital to release Q1 earnings shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.

APLD Traders Turn Bullish With 0.36 Put/Call Ratio as Implied Volatility Soars

Thomas Richmond
APLD
Applied Digital

Options positioning

2:11pm ET

Put/call 0.36Calls dominant
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
158.6%
Expiry
Fri, Oct 9chain as of Tue, Oct 6

A 0.36 put/call ratio into tonight's report says call buyers dominate the Oct. 9 expiration, though readings that lopsided can also mark the point where the market already expects strong earnings tonight. At 158.6% implied volatility on the $25.50 strike, options are priced for a violent reaction either way, and the heaviest put open interest sits at $24 and $25, just below where the stock trades.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $24

    5.5k / 1.6k

  • $24.5

    2.4k / 3.4k

  • $25

    5.5k / 3.8k

  • $25.5

    414 / 1.2k

  • $26

    892 / 3.5k

  • $26.5

    493 / 1.6k

Applied Digital Stock Falls 5% Ahead of Q1 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
APLD
Applied Digital

Regular session

1:55pm ET

$23.89
-5.74%
open $25.34

$24$24$24

Down 5.7% to $23.89 hours before Applied Digital reports earnings today, so the AI data center story gets repriced tonight on Q1 earnings. The company currently trades at a $7.2 billion market cap.

Applied Digital Falls 6% Ahead of Q1 Earnings. Here's the Number to Watch Tonight

Thomas Richmond

Applied Digital heads into earnings with Wall Street expecting a loss of $0.3023 per share on $124.57 million in revenue. Revenue is expected to come in below last quarter’s fit-out-heavy total, but the headline number may matter less than the underlying revenue mix.

The bigger focus is recurring base rent from the 175 MW now live at Polaris Forge 1. With roughly $36 billion in signed lease revenue, investors will be watching for evidence that Applied Digital can steadily convert its massive contracted backlog into recurring NOI.

New leasing could be another major catalyst. Applied Digital has a 1.7 GW pipeline, but growth comes with a cost: management has guided to roughly $600 million in capital expenditures.

With debt-to-equity around 2.86, additional lease wins and rising base rent could strengthen the case for the company’s $1 billion NOI target.

View the full live blog (15 updates) →