PC Sales Just Crashed 21% as AI Eats the World’s Memory Chips
AI servers are quietly driving up the cost of every laptop on the shelf, and the companies caught in the middle face a choice between shrinking margins and shrinking sales. How each major PC maker is navigating that trap reveals…
On October 22, 2026, Counterpoint Research released preliminary data showing global PC shipments fell 21% year over year in the third quarter, to 57 million units. The headline’s “sales” is shorthand. These figures count shipments into the sales channel, which differ from consumer purchases.
Counterpoint said, “elevated memory and other component costs continued to push up PC prices and constrain demand.” The stocks barely moved on October 23, 2026. HP (NYSE:HPQ | HPQ Price Prediction) fell 0.36% to $33.64, Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) rose 0.77% to $456.44, and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) gained 2.46% to $877.55.
Three Trackers Show the Same Collapse, With Worse Expectations in Q4
All three trackers’ counts are preliminary, and their totals differ. Gartner counted 55.4 million shipments, down 22.4% from 71.3 million. IDC counted 62.7 million, down 20.1% from 78.5 million.
Counterpoint also logged a 13.8% drop from the second quarter. It expects a 27% year-over-year decline in the fourth quarter and flat volumes in 2027.
HP shipped 10.3 million units, down 31%, which was the steepest drop among the top six. Dell fell 25% to 7.6 million, and Lenovo, the market leader, fell 23% to 15.0 million.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shipped 11% fewer Macs, but its share rose to 9.8% from 8.7%, a gain Counterpoint credits to its cheaper MacBook Neo. That shift suggests buyers are responding mainly to price.
How AI Servers Raise the Price of a Laptop
Counterpoint attributes the decline to component costs. The AI connection comes from TrendForce, which said on September 30, 2026, that server demand will push Q4 conventional DRAM contract prices up another 10% to 15% and NAND flash up 15% to 20%.
AI servers use far more memory than PCs, so memory makers shift capacity toward higher-margin server chips, and PC makers pay more for the supply that remains and pass the cost on through higher prices. Counterpoint’s Minsoo Kang said this forces “consumers to delay replacement purchases.”
Other factors also contributed to the drop. The year-ago quarter was inflated by buying ahead of the Windows 10 support deadline and by tariff stocking. IDC’s Jitesh Ubrani also pointed to “the strong first half pull-in.”
HP Depends Most on PCs, While Dell Sells to Both Sides
In its fiscal third quarter, Personal Systems revenue rose 18% while units fell 16%, but the segment’s operating margin narrowed to 4.6% from 5.4%. The stock trades near its 52-week high of $36.23, so investors are counting on price increases to offset lost volume.
Dell sells both PCs and AI servers. Its AI server backlog reached $95 billion, and management said it “optimized the bits and bytes we have towards the infrastructure business.”
Micron benefits from the higher contract prices, and its market value stands at $992.88 billion. Even so, the stock sits well below its 52-week high of $1,255.00, and a shrinking PC market weakens part of its own customer base.
What Rising Memory Costs Mean for PC Stock Investors
The bull case for PC stocks is that higher prices can protect margins and revenue while unit volumes fall. The bear case rests on Counterpoint’s David Naranjo, who warned that “stabilization should not be mistaken for recovery.”
Dell looks better situated. PCs are a shrinking share of what the company is worth, and it gets first claim on memory for the servers that drive its value. HP looks more exposed, because its share price assumes pricing will offset volume just as memory costs keep climbing.
The test comes with HP’s next report, estimated for November 24, 2026, but not yet confirmed by the company. If HP’s fiscal 2027 outlook shows the Personal Systems margin rising back above 4.6% and the stock closes above $36.23, this view of HP is wrong.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
