Rocket Lab Is Still Down 17% in 2026: Did RKLB Stock Just Find a Bottom?

A sharp rebound is reopening the debate over whether the launch and spacecraft maker behind the pending Iridium Communications acquisition has finally stopped sliding. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) stock has risen 8% to $58.20. That bounce reduces a decline that still stands at 17% year to date (YTD).

Smaller space operators are carrying most of this year’s damage. Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is down 42% YTD to $41.96, and Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) stock is down 26% YTD to $14.52, both larger slides than the decline in Rocket Lab stock.

Space-focused and broad-market funds have held up far better. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is up 7% YTD; this fund holds Rocket Lab alongside navigation, defense and satellite names. Over the same stretch, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 13% YTD, which places this year’s weakness directly in the smaller space operators.

Settled Deal Financing Anchors the Bottom Case

Rocket Lab agreed to acquire satellite operator Iridium Communications, adding subscription revenue to a business paid largely per launch and per spacecraft. In September, the Federal Communications Commission accepted the license-transfer applications for filing, and Rocket Lab completed an equity sale that let it terminate its bridge financing for the deal.

Today’s rebound puts that settled financing at the core of the argument that Rocket Lab stock has found a floor. CEO Peter Beck declared on the August 10 earnings call that “Rocket Lab will become a self-launching Tier 1 space power, delivering critical communications capability to millions of users worldwide.”

Operating results help too. Rocket Lab’s revenue rose 62% year over year to $234.07 million in Q2 2026, and backlog hit a record $2.36 billion. Iridium’s network serves more than 2.5 million subscribers, a recurring base Rocket Lab can’t match alone.

The case against a bottom starts with the share count. Rocket Lab raised $1.53 billion through its at-the-market program in the first half of the year, ahead of the September equity sale, and its Q3 2026 outlook assumes 641 million basic weighted average shares. Each new share dilutes existing holders’ claim on future earnings, and Rocket Lab still posted a $49.3 million net loss in Q2.

Regulatory and shareholder hurdles add a second layer of uncertainty. Closing on Iridium still requires a shareholder vote and regulatory approval, with the target set for the middle of next year, so the recurring revenue piece of the story remains on paper. Neutron adds execution risk on top of that, with Rocket Lab targeting Q4 2026 delivery of the reusable rocket to the launch pad.

Rocket Lab’s Iridium Deal Against a Year-Long Decline

Rocket Lab now faces the question of whether the Iridium deal passes its shareholder vote and the regulatory review now underway. Rocket Lab’s Q3 guidance calls for record revenue of $250 million to $265 million. Shareholders can watch for whether that report and the deal timeline support the bounce in Rocket Lab stock.

Neutron’s debut timing could also shape opinion, since a reusable medium-lift rocket would give Rocket Lab its own ride for future constellations. Beck stated on the same call, “Pre-test flight or post-test flight, Neutron demand is not a concern.” Any slip past Q4 would give the bearish side fresh material.

A year-long decline and a sharp rebound can coexist for some time before either side of the debate proves out. Holding Rocket Lab stock through that stretch means accepting both dilution risk and deal risk, the sort of asymmetric setup we built rules around in a free speculation playbook here. When all is said and done, RKLB share position sizes should stay modest until Rocket Lab’s Iridium review concludes.

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