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Eli Lilly Jumped 6% After Earnings. It’s Up 68% in a Year. Where Does the Target Go Now?

Mounjaro and Zepbound just handed Lilly a blowout quarter, but falling realized drug prices and one-time revenue boosts that won't repeat raise real questions about whether the rally holds from here.

By Vandita Jadeja
Published November 2, 2026, 8:47am ET · 3 min read

Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.

Two scientists in a bright, modern laboratory setting. A woman on the left, wearing a white lab coat, clear safety goggles, and light green gloves, is intently manipulating a clear tube. Her dark hair is cut short. To her right, a man with a beard, also wearing a white lab coat, clear safety goggles, and purple gloves, observes her work. A red 'Lilly' logo is visible on the man's lab coat pocket. Various scientific instruments, containers, and tubing are arranged on the stainless steel workbench around them.
Eli Lilly researchers meticulously work in a laboratory setting, symbolizing the crucial development efforts behind new drug combinations like eloraTZP, set for a key data presentation on September 30, 2026. © Eli Lilly and Co.

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) rose 6.39% to $1,370.64 after third-quarter results came in ahead of estimates and management raised guidance.

Lilly’s 24/7 Wall St. price target is $1,572.21 over the next 12 months. The target implies 14.7% upside, and our model rates the stock a buy with high confidence.

An infographic titled 'Eli Lilly and Company 12-Month Price Prediction' with a white background and green, red, and blue accents. The top section, 'THE CALL', shows a current price of $1,370.64 as of Oct 29, 2026, with an arrow pointing to a price target of $1,572.21, representing a +14.7% increase, marked with a 'BUY' rating and 90% high confidence. Below, 'HOW WE GOT THERE' displays a bar chart breaking down a weighted base of $1,405.01 into Forward P/E (50%) at ~$1,497, Analyst Consensus (30%) at ~$1,334, and Trailing P/E (20%) at ~$1,282. The 'OUR ADJUSTMENTS' section shows a series of bar charts with green (positive) and red (negative) bars adjusting the weighted base to the final price target of $1,572.21 (+11.9%), listing factors like Earnings Growth, Analyst Sentiment, Low Beta, Mega-Cap Dampener, and 247Factor Adjustment. Two large colored boxes outline 'BULL CASE: What Could Go Right' in green, with a target of $1,807.23 (+31.9%), detailing three positive developments including Retatrutide, Foundayo global launch, and raised revenue guidance. Alongside is 'BEAR CASE: What Could Go Wrong' in red, with a target of $1,317.78 (-3.9%), listing three negative factors like declining realized prices, lower operating income growth, and one-time benefits ending. The bottom section, 'THE BOTTOM LINE', reiterates 'BUY -> $1,572.21 (+14.7%)' and states, 'Raised revenue guidance and a deep obesity pipeline carry the thesis.'
24/7 Wall St.
Metric Value
Current Price $1,370.64
Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $1,572.21
Upside/Downside 14.7%
Recommendation BUY
Confidence Level 90%

Today’s gain eats into some of the upside, but the target still sits well above the share price. Raised revenue guidance and a deep obesity pipeline carry most of the thesis.

LLY price target

Mounjaro and Zepbound Drove a 38.6% Revenue Surge

Lilly is up 7.86% in a week, 15.69% in a month, 28.16% year to date and 68.19% over 12 months. It now trades above its prior 52-week high of $1,321.21 and far above the $804.56 low.

Third-quarter revenue reached $24.40 billion, up 38.6%, against a $22.62 billion consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $7.48 exceeded the $6.67 estimate even after booking $4.57 per share of acquired IPR&D charges.

Mounjaro brought in $10.72 billion (up 65%) and Zepbound $5.35 billion (up 49%). Full-year revenue guidance rose to $91-$92 billion from $85-$87 billion, and the injectables made up for a Foundayo sales miss, according to Reuters. CEO David Ricks said Lilly “had another strong quarter, exceeding our prior expectations.”

LLY earnings explorer

Why Bulls See $1,800 Within Reach

Retatrutide produced more than double the weight loss of Ozempic 2mg in a head-to-head trial, and Lilly plans a U.S. submission in quarter 1 2027. EloraTZP Phase 3 starts in Q4 2026, and Foundayo’s global launch is planned for 2027.

Performance margin guidance rose to 52%-52.5%. Analysts lean heavily positive, with 6 Strong Buy and 19 Buy ratings. Our bull case reaches $1,807.23, or 31.9% upside.

LLY analyst ratings

Falling Drug Prices Are the Risk to Watch

Tirzepatide volume rose 53% while realized prices fell 15%. Revenue also included about $900M of one-time benefits, among them $410M in Jardiance milestones, and no more of those milestones remain.

Operating income grew just 11.4%, though $4.18 billion of IPR&D charges from deals meant to branch out beyond GLP-1s explain much of that gap. The bear case of $1,317.78 implies 3.9% downside.

LLY price scenario

Lilly Commands a Premium Over Amgen and Merck

Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) is the closest U.S.-listed obesity challenger, with MariTide in ten Phase 3 studies. It trades near 20x the midpoint of its 2026 EPS guidance, compared with about 39x for Lilly.

Merck (NYSE:MRK) is a useful mega-cap value comparison, but its 2026 EPS guidance includes large acquisition charges that make a P/E misleading. Its revenue grew only 4.68% last quarter.

Company P/E (2026 Guidance) Latest Revenue Growth
Eli Lilly 39x 38.6%
Amgen 20x 9.68%
Merck Not meaningful 4.68%

With growth about four times faster than Amgen’s, Lilly’s premium looks earned. Against this peer group, our target looks reasonable.

Lilly’s Growth Still Justifies the Premium

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,572.21 carries a buy rating at 90% confidence. Volume growth is what tips the scale. The case strengthens if volume keeps outpacing price cuts and retatrutide’s filing stays on schedule. It weakens if realized prices fall faster than volume can make up for.

Eli Lilly Price Prediction 2026-2030

Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St.
2026 $1,331.00
2027 $1,581.07
2028 $1,807.24
2029 $2,041.58
2030 $2,193.77

The model set its 2026 year-end target before today’s rally, and the stock has already passed it. These projections assume Lilly keeps executing. Retatrutide approval or deeper GLP-1 price cuts could move them significantly in either direction.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

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