Prediction: Eli Lilly Could Be the Next $2 Trillion Drugmaker
Eli Lilly just posted a 47.7% revenue surge while rivals like Novo Nordisk are watching earnings fall, and a fresh pipeline catalyst could push Lilly toward a valuation Wall Street has only seen from two companies in history.
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Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) trades at $1,184.92, which gives it a market value of about $1.057 trillion. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Eli Lilly is $1,401.42 over the next 12 months. That means 18.27% upside and earns a high-confidence buy rating from our model.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $1,184.92 |
| Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. | $1,401.42 |
| Upside/Downside | 18.27% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
If shares hit our target, Lilly would be worth about $1.25 trillion. A $2 trillion valuation would take a share price near $2,243 on today’s share count. It sits above our base-case 2031 milestone of $2,000.56, so the headline goal depends on the pipeline outperforming.
A Blowout Q2 and Fresh Retatrutide Data Keep Lilly Near Its Highs
Shares have gained 1.21% over the past week, 10.74% year to date and 64.04% over the past year. The stock sits 8.3% below its 52-week high of $1,292.65.
Second-quarter revenue of $22.97 billion rose 47.7% and beat the $20.69 billion consensus. EPS of $8.38 exceeded the $6.58 estimate even after $3.03 of acquired IPR&D charges. Management also raised full-year revenue guidance to $85 billion to $87 billion.
September added to the momentum. The FDA approved Onswik, a once-weekly insulin, on September 24. At the EASD meeting, Lilly presented new retatrutide results and a comparison in which Foundayo beat oral semaglutide.
Why Bulls See $1,460 and Beyond
Lilly plans to file retatrutide in Q1 2027, after trial patients lost up to 71.2 lbs. Foundayo prescribers rose to about 36,000, and a global rollout is planned for 2027.
Medicare’s GLP-1 Bridge Program opened coverage to 20 million eligible Americans. Analysts expect 2027 EPS of $47.5425, up from $44.4568 90 days ago. The consensus target is $1,328.83. Our bull case hits $1,460.67, or 23.27% upside.
Falling GLP-1 Prices Could Stall the Rally
Excluding rebate adjustments, U.S. prices fell 9% last quarter. Mounjaro and Zepbound brought in $14.9 billion, most of Lilly’s revenue. Generic semaglutide is now on sale in India and Brazil, and the retatrutide filing pathway faces litigation. One analyst rates the stock Sell and another Strong Sell.
The bear case of $1,191.31 suggests little gain from here. On the other side, the IPR&D charges come from acquisitions and do not repeat. Volume growth also more than made up for lower prices.
Lilly Earns Its Premium Over Novo Nordisk, Merck and AbbVie
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) is Lilly’s direct GLP-1 rival. It trades at 12x forward earnings, but quarterly earnings fell 20.6%. Merck (NYSE:MRK) shows what a mature pharma multiple looks like. AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) competes with Lilly in immunology.
| Company | Forward P/E | Quarterly Revenue Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly | 24x | 47.7% |
| Novo Nordisk | 12x | 2.1% |
| Merck | 15x | 5.1% |
| AbbVie | 16x | 10.2% |
Lilly is growing revenue several times faster than any of these peers. That growth supports its higher multiple and makes the 24/7 Wall St. price target look reasonable.
Lilly Still Has Room to Run
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,401.42 carries a buy rating and high confidence. What tips the scale is rising earnings estimates.
Bulls stay in control if volume continues outpacing price cuts and retatrutide files on schedule. Bears take over if U.S. price declines grow faster than prescriptions. Right now, the growth numbers favor the bulls.
Here is where our model projects Lilly trading if current growth trends and market conditions hold.
| Year | Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,233.89 |
| 2027 | $1,406.11 |
| 2028 | $1,583.87 |
| 2029 | $1,748.51 |
| 2030 | $1,889.79 |
These projections assume Lilly continues executing its current strategy. Retatrutide’s approval or faster GLP-1 price erosion could drive results well above or below this path.
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Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
