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Costco Stock: Earnings Growth Could Shape the Next Big Move

Six straight earnings beats have pushed Costco shares up 20% this year, yet a 49x trailing P/E leaves little room for error. One metric could decide whether the rally keeps running or finally stalls.

By Vandita Jadeja
Published November 6, 2026, 8:33am ET · 3 min read

Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.

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Costco Wholesale warehouse storefront standing under a clear sky with its red and blue sign
© jetcityimage / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Costco (NASDAQ:COST | COST Price Prediction) is $1,098.23. That represents 7.75% upside from the $1,019.26 close. The stock earns a buy rating with 90% confidence.

COST price target

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Metric Value
Current Price $1,019.26
The 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $1,098.23
Upside/Downside 7.75%
Recommendation BUY
Confidence Level 90%

Costco has now beaten EPS estimates 6 consecutive quarters. Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 10.14% to $303.15 billion. Our model treats that earnings consistency as the variable most likely to drive the next move. Confidence is high because the trailing, forward and analyst-based valuations group tightly together.

Six Straight Beats Fuel a 20% Year-to-Date Run

Shares rose 4.27% over the past week, 12.37% over the past month and 20.49% year to date. At the latest close, the stock sits about 6.8% below its 52-week high of $1,093.14 and roughly 21.5% above its $839.11 low.

The fiscal fourth quarter, reported September 24, set the tone. EPS of $6.75 beat the $6.53 estimate. Revenue of $95.72 billion topped the $94.85 billion estimate and rose 11.1%. Excluding a $0.15 nonrecurring tariff refund benefit, EPS still grew 12.4%.

Digitally enabled comparable sales rose 19.5% as DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH) and Uber Eats delivery from Uber (NYSE:UBER) expanded nationwide. The stock gained 7.52% in the 30 days after that report.

COST earnings explorer
An infographic titled 'COST NASDAQ 12-Month Price Prediction' by 24/7 Wall St. on a dark background. The top section, 'THE CALL', shows the Current Price of $1,019.26 and a Price Target of $1,098.23, indicating '+7.75% UPSIDE' and a 'BUY' recommendation with '90% Confidence'. The 'HOW WE GOT THERE' section details a Weighted Base Price calculation derived from Forward P/E (50% Weight) $1,019.96, Analyst Target (30% Weight) $1,067.59, and Trailing P/E (20% Weight) $1,019.26, resulting in a Weighted Base Price of $1,034.11. 'OUR ADJUSTMENTS (247Factor)' show positive adjustments of +0.034 for Analyst Consensus: Bullish, +0.015 for Earnings Growth: +15% YoY, +0.005 for Price Position: Upper Range, and a negative adjustment of -0.004 for Social Sentiment: Cautious, with 'Mega-Cap Dampener: Applied'. These adjustments lead to the Final Price Target of $1,098.23. The 'BULL CASE' (What Could Go Right) lists: Membership growth & renewal rates (92.3%) hold, Digital sales (+19.5%) & ancillary businesses expand, and Warehouse expansion (33 planned in FY27) continues, with a 'BULL CASE TARGET: $1,162'. The 'BEAR CASE' (What Could Go Wrong) lists: Valuation pressure (Trailing P/E: 49, PEG: 5.07), Capital expenditures rise ($7.5B planned in FY27), and Membership growth deceleration or economic volatility, with a 'BEAR CASE TARGET: $995'. The 'THE BOTTOM LINE' section presents a 'BUY RECOMMENDED TARGET: $1,098.23 (+7.75%)' and the statement 'Strong earnings momentum and membership trends underpin the BUY rating.' The 24/7 Wall St. logo is visible at the top and bottom.
24/7 Wall St.

Why Bulls See $1,162 Within Reach

The bull case reaches $1,162.37. Membership quality drives it. Paid executive members reached 42.3 million, up 9.4%, and the U.S. and Canada renewal rate hit 92.3%. Management plans 33 openings in fiscal 2027, while the SG&A rate fell to 8.94% from 9.21%.

On the call, then-CFO Gary Millerchip pointed to “record high executive penetration, guest engagement, and digital engagement” as signs of loyalty. Analysts lean bullish, with 4 Strong Buy and 20 Buy ratings and a consensus target of $1,067.59.

COST analyst ratings

What Could Stall the Rally

The bear case sits at $995.32. Valuation is the pressure point, with a trailing P/E of 49 and a PEG ratio of 5.07. After the fiscal Q2 2025 miss, shares fell 6.07% on earnings day.

Total paid members grew only 3.8%, and capex is set to rise to about $7.5 billion. Management expects capex growth to slow after fiscal 2027. That spending also funds the warehouse pipeline that creates future fee income.

How Costco Compares to Walmart and BJ’s

Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) is the biggest scale rival, and its Sam’s Club unit competes directly for warehouse members. Walmart trades near 45x earnings, a smaller premium than Costco’s, but its latest revenue grew only 5.94%.

BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE:BJ) is the closest pure-play club. It beat EPS estimates by 16.52%, but its comparable sales excluding gas rose just 3.1%.

Company Latest Quarter Revenue Growth Membership Fee Growth
Costco 11.1% 7.3%
Walmart 5.94% 17%
BJ’s 15.73% 9.9%

Walmart’s high multiple, despite slower sales growth, suggests the 24/7 Wall St. price target is reasonable.

Earnings Momentum Tips the Scale Toward Buy

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,098.23 supports a buy at 90% confidence. Steady double-digit earnings growth is what underpins the call.

The bull thesis strengthens if comparable sales excluding gas stay in the 6% to 7% range. The thesis weakens if membership growth slows further. Until that happens, the earnings case remains intact.

COST price scenario

Costco Price Prediction 2026-2030

This is where the model projects Costco could trade if current trends hold.

Year The 24/7 Wall St. Price Target
2026 $1,029.40
2027 $1,098.23
2028 $1,165.48
2029 $1,256.10
2030 $1,294.14

These estimates rest on Costco continuing to execute on warehouse growth and membership. Faster openings in Asia could push results above these targets, while slower membership additions could pull them below.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

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