Musk Says SpaceX Will Hit a Revenue Number That Not One of Its 37 Analysts Believes
Elon Musk calls his latest SpaceX forecast a best guess, not a promise, yet it dwarfs every model on the Street. The gap between his vision and the current quarterly numbers shows just how much has to go right.
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Elon Musk just put a number on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) that sits above every revenue model on Wall Street. He spoke at the Baron Investment Conference, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and SpaceX watcher Sawyer Merritt relayed the remark on X:
“It seems quite likely that our ARR in Dec 2027 will exceed $500B. This is not a promise, this is my best guess. $1 trillion…”
Merritt’s summary added that $1 trillion is “not out of the question” and said Musk had “reiterated” the view.
Musk’s Floor Clears Even the Most Bullish Analyst
Thirty-seven analysts put average fiscal 2027 revenue at roughly $180 billion. The high estimate is $290 billion and the low is about $72 billion. Musk’s floor comes to about 2.8 times consensus and sits roughly $210 billion above the Street’s most aggressive model.
ARR, or annual recurring revenue, usually takes one month of recurring sales and multiplies it by 12. Analysts model total revenue for the full year. A company that reaches a $500 billion run rate in December would book much less than that across the whole year, so the two figures don’t line up exactly. Musk did not define the term, and he presented the figure as his best guess.
A $500 Billion Run Rate Needs a Huge Jump
SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.60 billion, ahead of the $13.02 billion consensus. AI Solutions and Infrastructure brought in $7.60 billion, up 830%. Connectivity grew 69% to $5.20 billion, and Starlink reached 13.6 million consumer subscribers. That quarter annualizes to $58.4 billion, and Musk’s target is about 8.6 times that level, roughly 14 months out.
Analysts are moving his way. The average fiscal 2027 EPS estimate has climbed to $4.0304, up from $0.5696 90 days ago. Fourth-quarter revenue consensus stands at $22.9 billion. For scale, Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) produces trailing revenue of about $736 billion.
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile Show the Scale Gap
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB), the closest public launch rival, reported second-quarter revenue of $234 million. CEO Peter Beck said:
“We achieved a record $234 million in Q2 revenue, up 62% year-over-year.”
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) competes with Starlink in direct-to-phone service. It confirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $150.0 million to $200.0 million. CEO Abel Avellan described a platform built for “the space-based cellular broadband market we invented.” The two peers carry market caps of $31.2 billion and $9.7 billion. SpaceX is valued at about $1.76 trillion.
SPCX Shares Remain Well Below October Levels
SPCX trades at $133.56, down 22.31% from $171.92 a month ago, even after an 8.04% gain today. CNBC reported that Tesla and SpaceX gave up a large share of their combined market value after the midterms. Over the next several months, keep an eye on fourth-quarter results against consensus, the 800 MHz spectrum deal set to close in H1 2027, and the COLOSSUS II expansion to 1.7 GW.
Data Sources
- Musk SpaceX ARR projection tweet: Musk’s direct quote and the context that he called it a guess.
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Jake has been been working in financial media for almost 15 years. He focuses on all things personal finance for 24/7 Wall St. with high hopes to educate and entertain. Most recently, Jake spent 12 years working various roles at The Motley Fool. He started copy editing fool.com content, worked on premium and marketing campaigns, and helped launch The Ascent, a personal finance brand.
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