Tesla and SpaceX Have Lost $457 Billion in Two Days
Elon Musk spent hundreds of millions on the midterms, and the election results now threaten his Texas empire. While Tesla's stock takes the headlines, the real warning sign is flashing in SpaceX's debt market.
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Roughly $457 billion of market value left Elon Musk’s two biggest public companies between the Election Day close on November 3, 2026, and the November 5 close. Meanwhile, the cost of insuring debt of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) hit a record.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell 13.75% across the two sessions, from $398.50 to $343.69, a loss of about $217 billion. SpaceX fell 12.52%, from $141.31 to $123.62, a loss of about $240 billion.
Democrats won both houses of Congress and key races in Texas, where both companies are based. Musk had spent at least $474 million on the midterms, including $224 million in Texas. Neither company has commented on the selloff.
Both stocks rose slightly after hours on November 5. As of 7:59 p.m. ET, SpaceX was at $126.70, and Tesla was at $345.97.
Texas Threats Are Still Campaign Intent
Gina Hinojosa defeated Gov. Greg Abbott after pushing to stop new data-center development and questioning state tax incentives for Musk’s companies; while she wants an immediate ban, she hasn’t taken office yet and has implemented nothing.
She has taken one concrete step so far. She asked Texas Parks and Wildlife to pause talks on selling public land to SpaceX near Starbase. In a television interview on November 5, she said data-center work should stop until protections for Texans are in place. That directly threatens Terafab, the chip factory and data center that Tesla and SpaceX are building together in Grimes County.
SpaceX’s Credit Spreads Matter More Than Its Stock
A credit default swap works like insurance against a borrower defaulting. SpaceX’s five-year swaps widened as much as 14.6 basis points on November 5 to a record 284.3 basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
Lenders are focused on roughly $40 billion of AI equipment financing and roughly $38 billion of debt at the end of September. But SpaceX also held nearly $90 billion in cash and short-term investments, so the wider spread signals rising perceived risk. A default remains unlikely.
SpaceX Carries More AI Data-Center Risk Than Tesla
SpaceX’s AI Solutions and Infrastructure segment brought in $7.60 billion of its $14.60 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 830% year over year. A slower data-center buildout would hit its fastest-growing business directly.
Tesla’s exposure shows up in its spending. Third-quarter revenue was $28.046 billion, down 0.17%. Operating income fell 55.79% to $718 million as spending on Optimus, self-driving software and AI computing power rose.
David Wagner, a portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, said a less friendly Congress could make it harder to combine Tesla and SpaceX. Special committees are reportedly weighing a merger, but no deal has been announced.
Republican control of the legislature limits how far a new governor can change tax incentives or impose a statewide ban, and Musk’s political spending once looked like an advantage for both companies, but investors are now pricing it as a risk.
Tesla’s Valuation Leaves Little Room for Political Setbacks
Tesla trades at about 357 times earnings while revenue is flat and operating income is shrinking. Its valuation depends on autonomy and robotics projects that Texas and Washington can now slow down.
SpaceX’s AI and Starlink businesses already make money, with third-quarter net income of $4.40 billion. Its risk shows up in the credit market, and its cash still tops its debt.
If SpaceX’s swaps fall back from 284.3 basis points and Tesla stays above its 52-week low of $297.38 through Hinojosa’s inauguration, the selloff went too far. If Tesla closes below that low, the stock probably has further to fall.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
