XRP Analysis: Can XRP Hold $1.25 Support After a 12.5% Drop in October?

The XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) price fell 12.5% in October, through October 19, 2026. It is now at a critical juncture, testing the $1.25 support level—a point where buyers have historically entered the market. Today, XRP is trading at $1.29, below the psychological barrier of $1.30.

Over the past 24 hours, it’s down 0.6%, 5.8% over the past week, and 14% over the last two weeks. This positions XRP 64.6% below its all-time high of $3.65 reached in July 2025.

XRP has logged two consecutive weekly losses, falling 7.3% from October 5 to 11, and another 7.3% from October 12 to 18. The lowest point in the second week came on October 18, when the price dipped to about $1.255, just above the pivotal $1.25 level.

XRP also closed below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages on October 18, which are around $1.41. A moving average smooths price data over a specific period. A close below these averages suggests that sellers are dominating both short-term and medium-term trends. So, what’s causing XRP to move lower?

Traders Are Reversing XRP’s September Rally as ETF Demand Fades

XRP rallied from a close of $1.295 on September 17 to an intraday high of around $1.66 on September 23, driven by increased investment in XRP spot ETFs that hold XRP directly. For instance, these funds received a substantial $22.6 million influx on September 25. However, XRP is now trading below where that upward move began.

ETF demand has since diminished. On October 16, these funds experienced a $2.5 million outflow, indicating that investors withdrew more funds than they added. By October 19, the net flow was zero, according to SoSoValue. Their total net assets shrank from $1.77 billion on September 25 to $1.48 billion by October 19, mainly because XRP’s price declined. While ETF holders are remaining invested, they are not increasing their positions.

Stock Market Volatility Adds Pressure to XRP

Wall Street has grown more anxious as well. The VIX, which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 options market, closed at 19.99 on October 16, up 34.7% in one week. When stock investors brace for uncertainty, they often sell off riskier assets first, and cryptocurrencies like XRP typically top that list.

Although rising Treasury yields can pressure non-interest-bearing assets like XRP, the latest drop isn’t driven solely by this factor. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 5.31% on October 5, but it fell to 5.09% by October 16 as XRP continued to slip—suggesting other underlying issues are at play.

XRP Price Levels to Watch Below $1.25 and Above $1.30

Buyers have defended the $1.25 support level multiple times. XRP hit intraday lows of $1.28 on October 15, $1.29 on October 16, $1.27 on October 17, and $1.255 on October 18, closing above $1.29 each time. These “long lower wicks” on daily candles suggest dip-buyers stepped in to absorb selling pressure before the day ended.

Trading volume during the decline from October 14 to 19 was lighter than on October 8, suggesting ongoing selling without panic.

If the $1.25 support fails, the next support levels to watch are the September 16 low of $1.246, followed by the August 19 close of around $1.11, the August 16 close of $0.993, and the August 17 low of $0.987—XRP’s lowest mark since July 20.

On the upside, XRP must first reclaim the $1.30 level. Upcoming resistance includes the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, positioned roughly 7.6% and 7.7% above the October 18 close, followed by the $1.56 high from October 2.

XRP Continues to Lag Behind Bitcoin

Over the past 60 days, XRP has declined 10.9%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) gained 4.1% and is trading around $81,425. Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH), on the other hand, has lost 4.9%, now at approximately $2,382. Year to date, XRP has dropped 29.6%, compared to declines of 6.8% for Bitcoin and 19.3% for Ethereum.

In the past month, Ethereum fell 9.5% while XRP dipped 8.1%, and Bitcoin showed a slight gain of 0.4%. Thus, the latest downturn has hit many altcoins, not just XRP.

Bitcoin has a much larger pool of institutional buyers, bolstered by spot ETFs and corporate investment. In contrast, XRP’s ETFs are smaller, so days of stagnation can hit demand harder. Additionally, many XRP holders purchased their tokens above $1.29 following the July 2025 peak and often sell during rallies to break even. This caps rebounds, and XRP also tends to swing harder than Bitcoin in both directions.

Can XRP Maintain $1.25 Support?

In the near term, XRP is likely to hold the $1.25 support level on a daily close, although any rebound appears weak. From October 15 to 18, buyers successfully defended this zone, and XRP has not closed below $1.25 since August 19. However, this support relies primarily on dip-buyers, as the last recorded net inflow for spot XRP ETFs occurred on October 14 and was a modest $740,000.

The clearest signal of weakness would be a daily close below the September low of $1.246, which could extend the decline toward $1.11. Furthermore, a VIX reading above 20—indicating elevated market uncertainty—would increase the likelihood of such a break. On the upside, a reversal may happen only if XRP closes above its moving averages near $1.41, pushing toward the $1.56 high from October.

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