XRP Price Analysis: XRP Just Bounced 4% Off Its Low. Can It Break Back Above $1.40?

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) has seen a recovery of nearly 8% from its low of $1.25 on October 18, 2026, and is currently trading at $1.35 as of October 21. This marks a 4.2% increase over the last 24 hours, making it the highest gainer among the four largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies.

However, on a longer time horizon, the outlook appears less positive. XRP is down 0.7% over the past week, 7.9% over the last 30 days, and 10.4% from October 1 to October 20. During the week of October 14 to 20, XRP reached a high of $1.39, just shy of a key level traders watch.

The crucial level is $1.40. XRP last closed above this mark on October 11 at $1.41. Since then, it has dropped to $1.34, with its 20-day and 50-day moving averages hovering around this key threshold. So, can XRP push back above $1.40 and hold its ground?

XRP Has Failed to Hold Above $1.40 All Year

To reach $1.40, XRP needs to rise 3.7%, and to hit $1.50, it would need an 11.1% gain. Given crypto market volatility, such price movements can happen quickly. For instance, on August 20, XRP opened at $1.11 and closed at $1.27, reflecting a remarkable 14.7% jump in a single day.

Unfortunately, every attempt to break above $1.40 in 2026 has been short-lived. XRP closed at $1.48 on April 17, reached $1.55 on May 14, and then fell back to $1.39 by May 18. It closed near $1.57 in late September, but by October 11, it had returned to that critical $1.40 level.

Even achieving $1.50 would still leave XRP significantly below its all-time high of $3.65. It currently trades about 63% below that peak and is down 27.3% year-to-date. Compounding the difficulty is Ripple’s continued release of XRP from escrow, increasing the number of tokens in circulation. This means that to regain its past value, XRP would need a larger influx of investment.

XRP Needs to Reclaim Its 20-Day and 50-Day Averages

A moving average smooths daily price fluctuations by averaging recent closing prices. The 20-day moving average for XRP, a short-term trend indicator, stands at $1.395, while the 50-day average, which reflects medium-term trends, stands at $1.413. Both averages are positioned just above the current price.

A close above the 50-day average would signal to traders that buyers might be regaining control of the medium-term trend. However, past recoveries above this line have been mixed, so this signal alone does not guarantee further price increases. If XRP can surpass $1.413, the next resistance level will be around October’s opening area near $1.49, followed by $1.50.

Bitcoin’s price movement also plays a significant role, as XRP often follows its trend. As of October 21, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is priced at $83,316, up 2.1% over the past 24 hours and 0.5% over the past week. Nevertheless, Bitcoin remains down 5.1% for the year, indicating that a broader rally in the cryptocurrency market has yet to materialize.

Spot XRP ETF Flows Have Stalled at Zero

Spot XRP ETFs, which are U.S.-listed funds that own actual XRP, saw no net flows on both October 19 and October 20. These funds currently hold $1.5 billion in assets and have recorded $1.8 billion in net inflows to date. Their most recent notable move was a $2.5 million outflow on October 16.

This recent price bounce has occurred without significant institutional buying. The last substantial increase came when these funds saw heavy inflows, adding $20 million on September 22 and $23 million on September 25, when XRP was near $1.57 on both days.

Can the XRP Price Break Back Above $1.40?

XRP may touch $1.40, but sustaining that level will be challenging unless ETF buyers return to the market. The current bounce is driven by thin institutional interest, and since every attempt to break above $1.40 in 2026 has faded, patience may be required.

For a meaningful breakout, XRP must first close above the 50-day average at $1.413, and we need to see a series of inflows into spot ETFs. Additionally, XRP would need to climb into the $1.49 area, targeting $1.50. However, if the price falls below the October 18 low of $1.25, sellers would regain control, pushing the $1.40 level off the immediate radar.

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