XRP Price Analysis: XRP Just Bounced 4% Off Its Low. Can It Break Back Above $1.40?
XRP just posted its biggest single-day gain among major cryptocurrencies, but a stubborn ceiling has crushed every rally attempt in 2026 and institutional buyers are nowhere to be found. Here is what needs to change for this bounce to mean…
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XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) has seen a recovery of nearly 8% from its low of $1.25 on October 18, 2026, and is currently trading at $1.35 as of October 21. This marks a 4.2% increase over the last 24 hours, making it the highest gainer among the four largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies.
However, on a longer time horizon, the outlook appears less positive. XRP is down 0.7% over the past week, 7.9% over the last 30 days, and 10.4% from October 1 to October 20. During the week of October 14 to 20, XRP reached a high of $1.39, just shy of a key level traders watch.
The crucial level is $1.40. XRP last closed above this mark on October 11 at $1.41. Since then, it has dropped to $1.34, with its 20-day and 50-day moving averages hovering around this key threshold. So, can XRP push back above $1.40 and hold its ground?
XRP Has Failed to Hold Above $1.40 All Year
To reach $1.40, XRP needs to rise 3.7%, and to hit $1.50, it would need an 11.1% gain. Given crypto market volatility, such price movements can happen quickly. For instance, on August 20, XRP opened at $1.11 and closed at $1.27, reflecting a remarkable 14.7% jump in a single day.
Unfortunately, every attempt to break above $1.40 in 2026 has been short-lived. XRP closed at $1.48 on April 17, reached $1.55 on May 14, and then fell back to $1.39 by May 18. It closed near $1.57 in late September, but by October 11, it had returned to that critical $1.40 level.
Even achieving $1.50 would still leave XRP significantly below its all-time high of $3.65. It currently trades about 63% below that peak and is down 27.3% year-to-date. Compounding the difficulty is Ripple’s continued release of XRP from escrow, increasing the number of tokens in circulation. This means that to regain its past value, XRP would need a larger influx of investment.
XRP Needs to Reclaim Its 20-Day and 50-Day Averages
A moving average smooths daily price fluctuations by averaging recent closing prices. The 20-day moving average for XRP, a short-term trend indicator, stands at $1.395, while the 50-day average, which reflects medium-term trends, stands at $1.413. Both averages are positioned just above the current price.
A close above the 50-day average would signal to traders that buyers might be regaining control of the medium-term trend. However, past recoveries above this line have been mixed, so this signal alone does not guarantee further price increases. If XRP can surpass $1.413, the next resistance level will be around October’s opening area near $1.49, followed by $1.50.
Bitcoin’s price movement also plays a significant role, as XRP often follows its trend. As of October 21, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is priced at $83,316, up 2.1% over the past 24 hours and 0.5% over the past week. Nevertheless, Bitcoin remains down 5.1% for the year, indicating that a broader rally in the cryptocurrency market has yet to materialize.
Spot XRP ETF Flows Have Stalled at Zero
Spot XRP ETFs, which are U.S.-listed funds that own actual XRP, saw no net flows on both October 19 and October 20. These funds currently hold $1.5 billion in assets and have recorded $1.8 billion in net inflows to date. Their most recent notable move was a $2.5 million outflow on October 16.
This recent price bounce has occurred without significant institutional buying. The last substantial increase came when these funds saw heavy inflows, adding $20 million on September 22 and $23 million on September 25, when XRP was near $1.57 on both days.
Can the XRP Price Break Back Above $1.40?
XRP may touch $1.40, but sustaining that level will be challenging unless ETF buyers return to the market. The current bounce is driven by thin institutional interest, and since every attempt to break above $1.40 in 2026 has faded, patience may be required.
For a meaningful breakout, XRP must first close above the 50-day average at $1.413, and we need to see a series of inflows into spot ETFs. Additionally, XRP would need to climb into the $1.49 area, targeting $1.50. However, if the price falls below the October 18 low of $1.25, sellers would regain control, pushing the $1.40 level off the immediate radar.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
