Currently, most national polls give Democratic candidate Joe Biden a slight edge over Trump in the race for the White House. However, much can change between now and Nov. 3, and in some states, Biden’s lead is razor thin.
Using data from FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregation platform, as well as The Economist, a weekly news publication, 24/7 Wall St. determined who would most likely win in each state if the election were held today. With only two exceptions, the winner is awarded all of a state’s electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes, awarding one vote to the winner in each congressional district and two to the winner across the state as whole.
As has been the case in most recent presidential elections, both the Republican and Democratic nominees can generally rely on winning the electoral votes of several states. In these states, voters tend to overwhelmingly prefer one party over another. For example, New York has not gone to a Republican presidential candidate in over three and a half decades, while Mississippi has not gone to a Democrat in over four decades.
As in previous years, the outcome of the 2020 election will likely be decided in a handful of politically divided, closely contested battleground states — in many of which Trump was able to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Here is a look at the 2020 battleground states.
Current polls show that Biden is leading in six states that Trump won in the previous election. If he can maintain that lead through election day, and also win the same states that his Democratic predecessor took in 2016, he will far surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to be elected president.
One factor that could prove decisive in several of the states on this list is voter turnout. Participation rates among eligible voters can fluctuate from one election to another, and motivation among likely voters remains a critical unknown factor going into Election Day. Voter turnout tends to fluctuate more among Democratic voters — and as has been the case in recent presidential elections, high voter turnout will likely benefit the Democratic Party in 2020. Here is a look at the states with the highest voter turnout.
Click here to see who would win in every state if the presidential election was today
Click here to read our methodology
Source: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
Alabama
> Electoral votes: 9
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +15.0 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +27.7 points
> 2016 voter participation in Alabama: 56.4% (18th lowest)
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Source: whitehouse / Flickr
Alaska
> Electoral votes: 3
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +7.8 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +14.7 points
> 2016 voter participation in Alaska: 59.4% (24th highest)
Source: Pool / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Arizona
> Electoral votes: 11
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +4.5 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +3.5 points
> 2016 voter participation in Arizona: 53.3% (10th lowest)
Source: Benjamin Krain / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Arkansas
> Electoral votes: 6
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +20.2 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +26.9 points
> 2016 voter participation in Arkansas: 56.0% (16th lowest)
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Source: David McNew / Getty Images News via Getty Images
California
> Electoral votes: 55
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +29.1 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +30.1 points
> 2016 voter participation in California: 48.2% (3rd lowest)
Source: thenationalguard / Flickr
Colorado
> Electoral votes: 9
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +9.9 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +4.9 points
> 2016 voter participation in Colorado: 63.8% (7th highest)
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Source: Photo by Drew Angerer / Getty Images
Connecticut
> Electoral votes: 7
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +20.5 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +13.6 points
> 2016 voter participation in Connecticut: 57.5% (21st lowest)
Source: Win McNamee / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Delaware
> Electoral votes: 3
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +22.1 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +11.4 points
> 2016 voter participation in Delaware: 57.2% (19th lowest)
Source: Drew Angerer / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Florida
> Electoral votes: 29
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +2.0 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +1.2 points
> 2016 voter participation in Florida: 52.9% (8th lowest)
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Source: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
Georgia
> Electoral votes: 16
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +0.7 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +5.1 points
> 2016 voter participation in Georgia: 55.7% (15th lowest)
Source: Photo by Drew Angerer / Getty Images
Hawaii
> Electoral votes: 4
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +35.6 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +32.2 points
> 2016 voter participation in Hawaii: 43.3% (the lowest)
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Source: Drew Angerer / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Idaho
> Electoral votes: 4
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +27.0 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +31.8 points
> 2016 voter participation in Idaho: 58.3% (23rd lowest)
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Source: Scott Olson / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Illinois
> Electoral votes: 20
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +17.2 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +17.1 points
> 2016 voter participation in Illinois: 58.8% (24th lowest)
Source: Scott Olson / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Indiana
> Electoral votes: 11
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +14.5 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +19.2 points
> 2016 voter participation in Indiana: 56.0% (17th lowest)
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Source: Tom Brenner / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Iowa
> Electoral votes: 6
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +1.1 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +9.4 points
> 2016 voter participation in Iowa: 60.7% (19th highest)
Source: J Pat Carter / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Kansas
> Electoral votes: 6
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +9.6 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +20.6 points
> 2016 voter participation in Kansas: 58.0% (22nd lowest)
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Source: Bryan Woolston / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Kentucky
> Electoral votes: 8
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +18.7 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +29.8 points
> 2016 voter participation in Kentucky: 55.3% (13th lowest)
Source: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
Louisiana
> Electoral votes: 8
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +10.7 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +19.6 points
> 2016 voter participation in Louisiana: 59.7% (23rd highest)
Source: Photo by Scott Olson / Getty Images
Maine
> Electoral votes: 4 (1 per congressional district, 2 statewide)
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +13.7 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +3.0 points
> 2016 voter participation in Maine: 71.3% (the highest)
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Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Maryland
> Electoral votes: 10
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +31.0 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +26.4 points
> 2016 voter participation in Maryland: 59.2% (25th highest)
Source: Scott Eisen / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Massachusetts
> Electoral votes: 11
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +33.9 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +27.2 points
> 2016 voter participation in Massachusetts: 61.7% (14th highest)
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Source: Bill Pugliano / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Michigan
> Electoral votes: 16
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +7.5 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +0.2 points
> 2016 voter participation in Michigan: 61.8% (13th highest)
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Source: Drew Angerer / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Minnesota
> Electoral votes: 10
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +9.1 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +1.5 points
> 2016 voter participation in Minnesota: 65.3% (5th highest)
Source: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Mississippi
> Electoral votes: 6
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +11.7 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +17.8 points
> 2016 voter participation in Mississippi: 66.7% (4th highest)
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Source: Jamie Squire / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Missouri
> Electoral votes: 10
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +6.9 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +18.6 points
> 2016 voter participation in Missouri: 62.8% (10th highest)
Source: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Montana
> Electoral votes: 3
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +8.1 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +20.4 points
> 2016 voter participation in Montana: 65.2% (6th highest)
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Source: Matt Sullivan / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Nebraska
> Electoral votes: 5 (1 per congressional district, 2 statewide)
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +18.6 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +25.0 points
> 2016 voter participation in Nebraska: 63.4% (9th highest)
Nevada
> Electoral votes: 6
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +5.5 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +2.4 points
> 2016 voter participation in Nevada: 53.5% (12th lowest)
Source: Spencer Platt / Getty Images News via Getty Images
New Hampshire
> Electoral votes: 4
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +6.6 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +0.4 points
> 2016 voter participation in New Hampshire: 66.9% (3rd highest)
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Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News via Getty Images
New Jersey
> Electoral votes: 14
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +18.9 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +14.1 points
> 2016 voter participation in New Jersey: 53.4% (11th lowest)
Source: Photo by Alex Wong / Getty Images
New Mexico
> Electoral votes: 5
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +12.6 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +8.2 points
> 2016 voter participation in New Mexico: 49.4% (4th lowest)
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Source: Pool / Getty Images News via Getty Images
New York
> Electoral votes: 29
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +26.5 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +22.5 points
> 2016 voter participation in New York: 50.7% (6th lowest)
Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News via Getty Images
North Carolina
> Electoral votes: 15
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +1.2 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +3.7 points
> 2016 voter participation in North Carolina: 61.6% (15th highest)
Source: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images News via Getty Images
North Dakota
> Electoral votes: 3
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +26.8 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +35.7 points
> 2016 voter participation in North Dakota: 62.1% (12th highest)
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Source: Alex Wong / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Ohio
> Electoral votes: 18
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +1.5 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +8.1 points
> 2016 voter participation in Ohio: 61.4% (16th highest)
Source: Win McNamee / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Oklahoma
> Electoral votes: 7
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +23.7 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +36.4 points
> 2016 voter participation in Oklahoma: 53.2% (9th lowest)
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Source: Photo by Theo Wargo / Getty Images for Global Citizen
Oregon
> Electoral votes: 7
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +16.8 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +11.0 points
> 2016 voter participation in Oregon: 61.0% (18th highest)
Source: Rick Loomis / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Pennsylvania
> Electoral votes: 20
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +4.5 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +0.7 points
> 2016 voter participation in Pennsylvania: 60.2% (21st highest)
Source: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images
Rhode Island
> Electoral votes: 4
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +23.0 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +15.5 points
> 2016 voter participation in Rhode Island: 55.5% (14th lowest)
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Source: Spencer Platt / Getty Images News via Getty Images
South Carolina
> Electoral votes: 9
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +6.9 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +14.3 points
> 2016 voter participation in South Carolina: 59.8% (22nd highest)
Source: Mark Wilson / Getty Images News via Getty Images
South Dakota
> Electoral votes: 3
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +21.6 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +29.8 points
> 2016 voter participation in South Dakota: 57.3% (20th lowest)
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Source: Drew Angerer / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Tennessee
> Electoral votes: 11
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +12.5 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +26.0 points
> 2016 voter participation in Tennessee: 52.0% (7th lowest)
Source: Joe Raedle / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Texas
> Electoral votes: 38
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +0.8 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +9.0 points
> 2016 voter participation in Texas: 47.7% (2nd lowest)
Source: George Frey / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Utah
> Electoral votes: 6
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +12.6 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +18.1 points
> 2016 voter participation in Utah: 58.9% (25th lowest)
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Source: Photo by Tom Brenner / Getty Images
Vermont
> Electoral votes: 3
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +34.4 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +26.4 points
> 2016 voter participation in Vermont: 61.0% (17th highest)
Source: Alex Wong / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Virginia
> Electoral votes: 13
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +11.0 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +5.3 points
> 2016 voter participation in Virginia: 62.6% (11th highest)
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Source: Scott Olson / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Washington
> Electoral votes: 12
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +24.2 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Clinton; +15.7 points
> 2016 voter participation in Washington: 60.5% (20th highest)
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Source: Alex Wong / Getty Images News via Getty Images
West Virginia
> Electoral votes: 5
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +34.2 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +42.1 points
> 2016 voter participation in West Virginia: 50.4% (5th lowest)
Source: Handout / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Wisconsin
> Electoral votes: 10
> 2020 election front-runner: Biden; +6.4 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +0.8 points
> 2016 voter participation in Wisconsin: 68.7% (2nd highest)
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Source: Pool / Getty Images News via Getty Images
Wyoming
> Electoral votes: 3
> 2020 election front-runner: Trump; +41.2 points
> Winner in 2016 election: Trump; +46.3 points
> 2016 voter participation in Wyoming: 63.5% (8th highest)
Methodology
To determine who would win in every state if the presidential election were today, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed polling data from several sources. For most states, we used polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight, a political poll analysis company. In much of the country during this campaign season, polls are constantly being taken and updated. Therefore, polling data are not necessarily from the same time period for each state.
For each of the following states, polling data reflects an average of at least five total polls covering varying time periods from at least three pollsters: Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico ,New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. The leading candidate’s margin is current as of Sept. 22, 2020.
In other states that do not meet the threshold used for averages by FiveThirtyEight, the front-runner was determined using polling data from The Economist, a weekly print news publication. These states are as follows: Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Poll results are current as of Sept. 22, 2020.
Voter participation in the 2016 presidential election by state came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey.
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