Live: Will United Airlines (NYSE: UAL) Soar After Earnings Tonight?

The mean price target for UAL is $96.20 which would be a 8.74% upside over the current price. Of the 10 analysts covering the stock, all have UAL as a “BUY”.

UAL stock is now down 1.53% after hours and Delta (down .40%) and Alaska Airlines Group down (.10%) are following suit in afterhours trading .

CEO Commentary:

• Scott Kirby: “Our second-quarter performance was more proof that the United Next strategy is working. I am extremely proud of the team for executing a strong operation and navigating through a volatile macroeconomic period, while still growing earnings and pre-tax margin for the first half of the year. Importantly, United saw a positive shift in demand beginning in early July, and, like 2024, anticipates another inflection in industry supply in mid-August. The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year.”

Strategic Updates:

• United announced Blue Sky, a collaboration with JetBlue that streamlines booking across the two airlines and allows customers to use MileagePlus® miles and TrueBlue points across both loyalty programs.
• The airline launched the largest international expansion in its history, inaugurating service to eight new destinations.
• United’s Newark operation regained the position of best on-time performance among New York City-area airports in June.

Q2 Segment Performance:

• Passenger Revenue: $13.8B (Est. $13.7B) ✅; UP +1.1% YoY
• Cargo Revenue: $430M; UP +3.8% YoY
• Other Operating Revenue: $970M; UP +8.8% YoY

Other Key Q2 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $1.8B (Est. $1.6B) ✅; DOWN -9.8% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $10.4B; UP +8.2% YoY
• Average Fuel Price per Gallon: $2.34; DOWN -15.3% YoY
• Ending Available Liquidity: $18.6B
• Total Debt: $27.1B
• Trailing Twelve Months Net Leverage: 2.0x
• Shares Repurchased: $0.2B in Q2 2025, approximately $0.6B year-to-date

Earnings are in and UAL beat on EPS and slightly down on revenue. The stock is now down 3% after hours.

• Adj. EPS: $3.87 ✅; DOWN -6.5% YoY
• Revenue: $15.2B (Est. $15.0B) ✅; UP +1.7% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 11.6% ✅; DOWN -150 bps YoY
• Net Income: $1.0B ✅; DOWN -26.4% YoY
• Free Cash Flow: $1.1B; DOWN -38.5% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 22.0% (vs. 23.9% YoY)

Q2’25 Outlook:

• Revenue: $9.00B to $11.00B [✅]

• Adj. Operating Income: $1.8B (Est. $1.6B) ✅; DOWN -9.8% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $10.4B; UP +8.2% YoY
• Average Fuel Price per Gallon: $2.34; DOWN -15.3% YoY
• Ending Available Liquidity: $18.6B
• Total Debt: $27.1B
• Trailing Twelve Months Net Leverage: 2.0x
• Shares Repurchased: $0.2B in Q2 2025, approximately $0.6B year-to-date

Earnings will be live shortly, United shares down 1.28% so far after hours. Updates coming shortly.

With United Airlines’ earnings due in about 30 minutes, let’s look at some of the key metrics from last quarter:

UAL | United Airlines Q1’25 Earnings Highlights:

• Adj. EPS: $0.91 ✅
• Revenue: $13.2B (Est. $13.0B) ✅; UP +5.4% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 3.0% ✅; UP +290 bps YoY
• Net Income: $0.4B ✅
• Free Cash Flow: $2.3B; UP +49.9% YoY
• Operating Cash Flow: $3.7B; UP +30.2% YoY
• Average Fuel Price per Gallon: $2.53; DOWN -12.2% YoY
• Ending Available Liquidity: $18.3B
• Total Debt: $27.7B
• Net Leverage: 2.0x

Q1 Segment Performance:

• Passenger Revenue: $11.9B (Est. $11.5B) ✅; UP +4.8% YoY
• Cargo Revenue: $429M (Est. $400M) ✅; UP +9.7% YoY
• Other Operating Revenue: $923M (Est. $900M) ✅; UP +10.5% YoY

Other Key Q1 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $500M (Est. $450M) ✅; UP +346.4% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $12.7B (Est. $12.5B) ✅; UP +2.3% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 19.0% (vs. 24.4% YoY)
• Capacity Growth: 4.9% YoY
• Passenger Load Factor: 79.2% (vs. 80.1% YoY)
• Average Stage Length: 1,454 miles (vs. 1,481 miles YoY)

CEO Commentary:

• Scott Kirby: “Our strategy coming out of the COVID pandemic was simple: Build the best airline in the world to attract brand-loyal customers. The people of United Airlines have executed and built that airline. United Next is on track and we will continue to execute our multiyear plan that has allowed United to thrive in any demand environment. It has given us industry-leading margins in the good times and we expect to expand our lead further in challenging economic times. Our ability to win brand-loyal customers and the resiliency of our business is a competitive advantage, and we are accelerating our investments in our product, service, technology and experience to further expand that lead.”

Strategic Updates:

• United is expanding its operations at Chicago O’Hare with six additional gates expected to be awarded this fall, and plans to install Starlink for the fastest WiFi in the sky across its United Express fleet by year-end.
• United Airlines Ventures announced an investment in Heirloom, a startup focused on direct carbon capture technology, as part of its commitment to sustainable aviation.

As we noted in our initial write-up below, United shares are down about 9% year-to-date. How does that compare to some other domestic rivals?

• Delta: Down 6% YTD
• Alaska Air Group: Down 19% YTD
• Southwest Airlines: Up 12% YTD
• American Airlines Group: Down 28% YTD

As you can see, it’s been generally a down year for airline stocks in general.