Live Analysis: Lam Research (LRCX) Earnings Drop After the Bell
Key Points
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Lam Research reports tonight after the bell. Earnings should drop shortly after 4 p.m. ET.
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Here is what Wall Street expects the company to report last quarter (Lam’s Fiscal Q4):
- Revenue: $5.004 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $1.21
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The moment earnings hit, we’ll be posting live news and analysis on this live blog. All you have to do is leave this page open in your browser and new updates will automatically post.
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Final Reaction to Tonight's Earnings
Post-Earnings Move: 🟢 +2.73%
What Happened:
Beat across the board: revenue ($5.17B), EPS ($1.33), and margin (50.3%). Q1 guidance also came in above consensus on both revenue and EPS.
Why the Stock Rose:
Lam delivered clean execution and raised the outlook, while tying its tools to structural AI infrastructure growth. Deferred revenue and installed base trends were strong.
My Take:
This was a high-quality print. LRCX is positioning itself as a key AI-enabler, and the market is now rewarding any semi name with backlog and pricing power.
Qrt-O-Qrt Changes
| Area | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.72B | $5.17B | Backlog converted to sales |
| Gross Margin | 49.0% | 50.3% | Efficiency + mix shift |
| EPS (Adj.) | $1.04 | $1.33 | AI demand tailwinds rising |
| Free Cash Flow | ~$1.02B† | ~$2.38B† | Massive QoQ improvement |
| Guidance | $5.0B (implied) | $5.2B (guided) | Slight upward revision |
How the core business performed
Deferred revenue surge suggests robust backlog, especially for Japan-bound systems awaiting customer acceptance.
| KPI | Q4 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Systems Revenue | $3.44B | $3.04B | 🔼 +13% |
| Customer Support Revenue | $1.73B | $1.68B | 🔼 +3% |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 50.3% | 49.0% | 🔼 +130bps |
| Cash from Ops | $2.55B | $1.31B | 🔼 +95% |
| Deferred Revenue | $2.68B | $2.01B | 🔼 +33% |
Guidance Update (Q1 FY2026)
This is in-line to slightly above the Street’s prior forecast of $4.657B revenue and $1.00 EPS — a notable raise in topline outloo
Q1 FY2026 (Ending Sept 2025):
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Revenue: $5.20B ± $300M
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Gross Margin: 50.0% ± 1%
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EPS: $1.20 ± $0.10
Management Tone Meter → ↑ Bullish Shift
CEO Tim Archer:
“With deposition and etch criticality intensifying in the AI era, we are executing on our long-term strategic initiatives and leveraging our differentiated product portfolio to position Lam for outperformance.”
Tone is more confident than Q3, where the focus was on navigating uncertainty. Now Lam is framing its tools as mission-critical to AI’s physical infrastructure.
Big spike after LRCX Beat Earnings Estimates
Lam Research Corporation reported strong financial results for the quarter ended June 29, 2025, with revenue reaching $5.17 billion, surpassing the estimated $5.11 billion.
The company achieved a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.33, exceeding the estimated $1.20. The results reflect a 9.6% increase in revenue compared to the previous quarter. The company reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 50.3% and a non-GAAP operating income margin of 34.4%.
CEO Tim Archer highlighted the company’s strategic positioning in the AI era, emphasizing the criticality of deposition and etch technologies. Cash and cash equivalents increased to $6.4 billion, driven by strong operating cash flows. T
he company also provided guidance for the next quarter, projecting revenue of approximately $5.20 billion. Lam Research continues to leverage its differentiated product portfolio to drive growth and maintain its competitive edge in the semiconductor industry.
| EPS |
1.33 Beat
|
Est. EPS |
1.20 |
| Revenue |
$5.17B Beat
|
Est. Revenue |
$5.11B |
Powell's Conference Sparks Broad Sell-Off
If you’re worried seeing Lam Research shares plunge shortly before their earnings release, there’s no need for worry.
At around 3 p.m., Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there has been no decision made on cutting rates at the September meeting. Immediately after the comment, Treasury yields jumped 6 basis points and stocks fell.
Point being: This is a broader market sell-off and nothing related to Lam Research’s upcoming report after the bell.
In late trading, Lam Research is down .27% on the day.
Sitfel Raises Its Price Target on Lam Research Ahead of Earnings
Stifel Research raised their price target on Lam Research from $92 to $110 per share yesterday. The researcher maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on shares.
Stifel expects Fiscal Q4 earnings today to ‘modestly’ exceed expectations and sees AI infrastructure acceleration as a big catalyst headed into the second half of the year.
The researcher notes that its multiple on Lam’s 2026 earnings is a 20% discount to the S&P 500 tech sector.
Wall Street Expectations
Here’s what Wall Street expects when Lam Research reports today:
Expectations for Lam’s Fiscal Q4 (Ending June 2025)
- Revenue: $5.004 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $1.21
- Free Cash Flow: $1.566 billion
- Gross Margins: 49.64%
And looking ahead to next quarter, here’s what Wall Street projects for Lam’s Fiscal Q1 (ending September 2025):
- Revenue: $4.657 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $1.00
Clearly, that’s a step down from the current quarter, but remember that these expectations are already baked into Lam’s share price.
Lam Research (Nasdaq: LRCX) reports earnings after the bell tonight and we’ll be updating this live blog.
Lam Research shares are up 37% year-to-date, which significantly outpaces the broader semiconductor market. For comparison, Applied Materials is up 15% so far this year. ASML shares are doing even worse, up 3% so far this year. This is to say, Lam Research has had a good year.
The moment earnings hit, we’ll be posting live news and analysis on this live blog. All you have to do is leave this page open in your browser and new updates will automatically post.
Let’s look back at Lam Research’s last quarter, and then in our first update we’ll post what Wall Street expects when the company reports earnings tonight.
What Lam Research Reported Last Quarter
Here’s a look back at what Lam Research reported on April 23rd:
- Lam Research reported strong financial results for the quarter ending March 30, 2025, with revenue reaching $4.72 billion, an 8% increase from the previous quarter.
- The company achieved a non-GAAP gross margin of 49.0% and a non-GAAP operating income margin of 32.8%.
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.04, reflecting a 14% increase from the prior quarter. Net income for the quarter was $1.33 billion, up from $1.19 billion in the previous quarter.
- Lam Research’s balance sheet showed cash and equivalents of $5.45 billion, a decrease from $5.67 billion, primarily due to capital return activities and debt payments.
- Operating cash flow improved significantly to $1.31 billion from $741.94 million in the previous quarter.
- CEO Tim Archer expressed confidence in the company’s ability to outperform industry growth despite tariff-related uncertainties.
- The company projects revenue for the next quarter to be approximately $5 billion, with a gross margin of 49.4% and an EPS of $1.20.
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