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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning that nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 50,000 in December. This was less than the 56,000 jobs gained in November, and less than the 73,000 jobs economists had predicted, indicating a weakening economy — that just might be ripe for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Investors seem happy to hear the bad news, and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) gained 0.3% in early morning trading.
Unemployment fell to 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5%. BLS also revised its estimate of job losses for October. Previously estimated at 105,000, the agency now believes the U.S. lost 173,000 jobs that month.
All told for the year, BLS says the U.S. averaged monthly jobs growth of 49,000 in 2025 — exceptionally weak.
Tariffs news
The next big economic news will come, strangely, not from BLS or the U.S. Department of Labor, but from the U.S. Supreme Court.
The Court is considering a case challenging President Trump’s power to unilaterally impose trade tariffs on foreign countries based on supposed threats to national security (the International Emergency Economic Powers Act). U.S. Treasury Department data shows that the country collected $195 billion in tariffs under this Act in 2025, and $62 billion more already in 2026. If the Court rules against the President, then this money may need to be repaid (but to whom?)
A decision may come as early as today.
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