4 Wildcards That Could Move Apple’s Stock After Tonight’s Q2 Earnings

Apple just provided guidance for next quarter on their conference call. We’ll provide the full quote and then layer on some context below it:

Kevan Parekh Chief Financial Officer

“Importantly, the color we’re providing assumes that global tariff rates, policies and their application remain in effect as of this call, and the global macroeconomic outlook does not worsen from today. We expect our June quarter total company revenue to grow by 14% to 17% year-over-year, which comprehends our best view of constrained supply. On iPad, keep in mind, we face a difficult compare driven by the launch of the A16 powered iPad in the prior year. We expect services revenue to grow at a year-over-year rate similar to what we reported in the March quarter, after removing the favorable year-over-year impact from foreign exchange tailwinds.

Keep in mind, during the March quarter, FX was a 2.5 percentage point tailwind to the total company growth rate and for services, that impact was slightly more favorable. We expect gross margin to be between 47.5% and 48.5%. We expect operating expenses to be between $18.8 billion and $19.1 billion. We expect OI&E to be around $250 million, excluding any potential impact from the mark-to-market of minority investments and our tax rate to be around 17%.”

I bolded the gross margin expectations because that’s the figure Wall Street will be most closely studying. The Street expected gross margins to be 47.6%, so this guidance is above expectations.

Apple shares are up 3.6% as of 6 p.m., in large part due to the company maintaining pricing power despite rising supply costs.

Apple CEO Tim Cook discussed the company’s Services division passing $31 billion in revenue this quarter. Here’s what he had to say about Apple TV and how the company is using sports to drive subscriptions:

Timothy Cook Chief Executive Officer

“Now let’s turn to services, which set an all-time revenue record with $31 billion. We saw double-digit growth in both developed and emerging markets and set new all-time revenue records across most of the services categories. There’s no better place to find celebrated storytellers than Apple TV. Audiences are plotting the return to shows like your friends and neighbors shrinking and for all mankind while discovering new favorites like Winow’s Bay.

Apple TV has also earned its place among the most decorated names in entertainment with more than 800 wins and more than 3,400 nominations in the 6 years since launch. This is a great time for sports fans on Apple TV, too. Formula One season kicked off in March and Apple TV subscribers in the U.S. have 1 of the best views of the track. The new MLS season is also well underway and subscribers in more than 100 countries and regions can watch every match with no blackouts. And Friday night baseball returned for its fifth year on Apple TV with a full season of marquee matchups.”

Updates will be slowing down as we wrap up earnings coverage. Stick around for our coverage on Apple’s upcoming Conference Call at 5 PM EST!

With the $2.01 EPS and $111.18B revenue double beat in hand, focus shifts to the 5:00 PM ET call with Tim Cook and CFO Kevan Parekh.

Top Analyst Questions

• Is Greater China’s Q1 reacceleration sustaining into Q3?
• Can Services hold a double-digit growth rate after $30.98B?
• Tariff impact on June-quarter gross margin?
• Apple Intelligence monetization timeline and attach rates?
• iPhone 17/Air sell-through and iPhone 18 readiness?

Key Topics

• June-quarter revenue and margin ranges
• M5 silicon adoption across Mac and iPad Pro
• Capital returns pace following $24.7B in Q1 buybacks
• Vision Pro and regulatory updates (DMA, App Store)

Red Flags

• Vague forward commentary
• Services guided to single digits
• Wearables weakness extending past $11.49B base
• Tariff language signaling margin compression below 47%

With shares at $271.35 and the $297.88 analyst target in view, Cook’s tone on China and tariffs will likely dictate the after-hours move.

With Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) earnings now out, context from peers April 29 sharpens the read. All four mega-cap peers beat EPS estimates: Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) by 94.10%, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) 60.69%, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) 56.79%, and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) 4.90%.

The market rewarded AI capacity over headline beats. Alphabet rallied 9.96% on Google Cloud’s 63% growth and a $460 billion backlog. Meta fell 8.55% after lifting 2026 capex guidance to $125 to $145 billion. Microsoft slipped 3.93% despite Azure growth of 40%.

Apple differs from these peers. With minimal AI capex and a Services-led beat at $30.98B, today’s 0.5% slip reflects a sector tired of premium multiples for in-line execution. Margin commentary on tonight’s earnings call remains the key swing factor.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) cleared the bar with $111.18B revenue and $2.01 EPS, yet shares slipped 0.5%. The June quarter call commentary now matters more than tonight’s earnings report.

Apple does not issue formal numerical guidance, so investors parse CFO Kevan Parekh’s qualitative ranges on revenue growth, gross margin, opex, and tax rate. Management historically guides conservatively.

Bullish setup: revenue growth framed in high-single to low-double digits, Services sustaining 13%+, gross margin at the 46-47% high end, and constructive China color after Q1’s $25.53B surge.

Bearish setup: deceleration commentary, tariff-driven margin pressure, Services slowing toward high single digits, or cautious iPhone normalization tone. With shares at $271.35 and a 34 P/E, the call sets the tone into Friday.

Prediction Markets Nailed the Beat

With results in hand, Polymarket’s pre-earnings call looks vindicated. The headline market priced a 99.9% probability of an EPS beat above the $1.94 consensus, and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) delivered $2.01. The “Yes” contract was trading at 0.9995 into the close on $18,008 in volume.

Price-level markets were equally calibrated. Traders assigned probability 1.0 to a close above $270 and only 0.001 above $275. Apple sits at $271.35, threading that range exactly.

Context matters: across 73 resolved AAPL markets, the crowd correct rate is 71.2%, with an average Brier score of 0.1. Watch the week-of-April-27 market, where $276 leads at 74.2%.

This quarter carries added significance as it marks one of the final earnings calls for Tim Cook as CEO of Apple. Cook is expected to step down in September 2026, with longtime executive John Ternus set to take over, signaling the start of a major leadership transition.

Cook’s tenure reshaped Apple into one of the most valuable companies in the world, with its market value rising from roughly $350 billion to over $4 trillion. Investors will be paying close attention not just to the quarter’s results, but also to any commentary on the transition, Apple’s long-term strategy, and how the next phase of leadership will build on that foundation.

Apple reported a solid beat across the board, with strength driven by Services and steady iPhone demand.

• EPS: $2.01 vs. $1.96 expected
• Revenue: $111.18B vs. $109.66B expected

Segment Performance:

• iPhone: $56.99B vs. $56.98B expected
• Services: $30.98B vs. $30.37B expected
• Products: $80.21B vs. $79.26B expected
• Mac: $8.40B vs. $8.13B expected
• iPad: $6.91B vs. $6.65B expected

Services continues to lead on upside, while hardware came in steady across the board with modest beats in most categories.

Apple’s Q2 Earnings are out now:

• Revenue: $111.18B vs Est. $109.58B
• EPS: $2.01 vs Est. $1.94

The stock is trading down o.5% on the news.

Apple earnings are expected in 8 minutes. Once they drop, we’ll provide the key figures you need to know and analysis on their earnings.

If you haven’t followed a 24/7 Wall St. live blog before, there’s no need to refresh this page. New updates will post automatically at the top of this feed. 

Tonight’s reaction will hinge on management commentary around guidance, margins, and segment trends. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) doesn’t issue formal numerical guidance, so investors will parse CFO Kevan Parekh’s qualitative ranges on revenue growth, gross margin, and segment color.

Wall Street consensus sits at $1.94 EPS and $109.5 billion revenue, with Polymarket pricing a 97.5% implied probability of a beat. Last quarter set a high bar at $143.756 billion.

Bullish scenario: Tim Cook signals sustained double-digit growth, Services tracking ≥14%, gross margin above 47%, and continued China strength after Q1’s $25.526 billion surge.

Bearish scenario: iPhone deceleration after the blowout, China softening, tariff-driven margin pressure, and muted Apple Intelligence commentary. History favors guidance: the average day-of reaction is -0.19% despite eight straight beats.

As we’ve noted throughout this live blog, one of the biggest metrics Wall Street will be watching tonight is Apple’s margins. Components like memory continue soaring in price, which has pressured companies across the smartphone supply chain.

NAND producer SanDisk just reported earnings and they were an epic blowout. The company’s EPS came in at $23.41, ahead of Wall Street’s expectations of $14.42.

The bad news for SanDisk stockholders? Even with the blowout, shares are down 7%.

SanDisk’s results have limited visibility into Apple’s earnings. The company has long-term supply agreements. However, with SanDisk forecasting EPS of $30 to $33 per share next quarter, the momentum behind rising memory prices continues to build.

While we wait for Apple’s earnings (expected at about 4:30 p.m.), let’s talk about a free resource providing market-beating investment ideas.

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Apple (AAPL) shares are up 1.45% in late trading while the Nasdaq is up 1%. 

It’s been a day of diverging performances for the largest technology stocks. Meta Platforms, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet all reported last night. 

Alphabet shares are soaring 9% after the company issued blowout cloud and search revenues last night. On the other end, Meta shares are down afte the company raised its capex forecast up to $145 billion on the high end for the year. 

Apple won’t have to worry about rising capex (the company is famously holding back on the arm’s race its rivals have embarked on). However, investors will be concerned that rising margins could crimp the company’s profitability. Any commentary from Tim Cook on supply costs will be carefully studied.