Live: Take-Two Reports Q1 Earnings Tonight Ahead of GTA VI’s Massive November Launch

By Thomas Richmond Published May 21, 2:55PM EDT

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Quick Read

Take-Two management is signaling record-level Net Bookings for fiscal 2027 driven by GTA VI’s November release. Investors are focused on the timing of launch marketing spend and on whether the company maintains this elevated guidance trajectory through the game’s pre-order phase.
This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Take-Two’s earnings. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Take-Two’s earnings to be released shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.
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Live Updates

Why Take-Two's Guidance Tonight Outweighs Quarterly Results

7 minutes ago

Live

Tonight’s headline numbers matter less than what Strauss Zelnick says about fiscal 2027. Wall Street is modeling fiscal 2027 bookings of $9.4 billion, and the whisper bar sits above $8 billion in Net Bookings tied to GTA VI.

Management has historically under-promised and overdelivered: the FY2026 Net Bookings outlook was raised three consecutive quarters, ending at $6.65B–$6.70B. That conservative cadence sets a high bar for tone, not just numbers.

Bullish scenario: Reaffirming the November 19, 2026, GTA VI date, a Q4 raise above $1.56B, and a path to GAAP profitability.

Bearish scenario: Any slippage language, withheld FY27 guide, or recurrent spending mix slipping below 76%. Investors also want clarity on EBITDA trajectory beyond the current $657M–$681M range.

Topics to Address

FY2026 Net Bookings reaffirmation at $6.65B-$6.70B
WWE 2K26 reception
Judas and next BioShock timing

Red Flags

Any GTA VI slippage hint
Decelerating recurrent spending
Fresh impairments after the prior $3.55B goodwill write-down

Last Quarter with a Clean Read Before GTA VI Changes Everything

49 minutes ago

Live

Take-Two’s upcoming Q1 earnings report tonight gives investors one of the final clean looks at the business before Grand Theft Auto VI reshapes the company’s financial profile.

Investors will focus heavily on mobile trends, NBA 2K monetization, and overall balance-sheet strength ahead of the biggest game launch in years.

If management reinforces confidence in fiscal 2027 and maintains expectations for GTA VI, sentiment toward the stock could improve quickly. A weaker guide would likely pressure the premium investors are already assigning to the launch cycle.

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is expected to report fiscal Q4 results today, May 21, at 4:05 PM ET. With Grand Theft Auto VI six months out, this earnings report matters less for the quarter itself than for the runway management sets for fiscal 2027.

Three Straight Raises, One Cautious Q4 Guide

Last quarter, revenue hit $1.70B, up 24.9% YoY and beating consensus by 7.59%. Net Bookings reached $1.76B, up 28% YoY, with recurrent consumer spending growing 23% and accounting for 76% of bookings. The GAAP loss of $0.50 missed the $0.3889 consensus loss, and shares fell roughly 8% on the report despite a third consecutive raise to the full-year outlook.

For this quarter, management guided Net Bookings of $1.51B to $1.56B, versus $1.58B in the prior-year period. Pre-launch marketing for GTA VI is starting to land. Since the Feb 3 report, shares have climbed 11.52%, helped by GTA VI pre-order numbers and a 9.12% one-month rally to $241.08.

Consensus Estimates

Metric	Q4 FY26	Full Year FY26
Revenue (Street)	~$1.55B (-2% YoY)	$6.55B–$6.60B (guided)
EPS (Street)	-$0.51	($2.00)–($1.84) (guided)
Net Bookings (guided)	$1.51B–$1.56B	$6.65B–$6.70B

All Eyes on GTA VI News

I’ll be watching three things with Take-Two tonight. First, whether Net Bookings clear the top of guidance. Polymarket traders price a 96.55% chance bookings exceed $1.55B and an 89.5% chance they top $1.60B, reflecting Take-Two’s habit of sandbagging guidance with low estimates and beating it.

Second, the GTA VI cadence. Management has reaffirmed the November 19, 2026, release date twice, and Rockstar’s marketing push is set to begin in summer 2026. Investors will listen for any signal on launch marketing spend, since it will compress early FY27 margins before bookings catch up.

Third, the initial fiscal 2027 framing. CEO Strauss Zelnick has said the company expects “record levels of Net Bookings” in FY27, establishing a new baseline. Wedbush already pencils in $9.4B in FY27 bookings with a $300 price target. Any softening of that “record” language would rattle a stock priced for a flawless launch.

Also worth tracking: the mobile portfolio (Toon Blast up 43%, Empires and Puzzles up 116% YoY), GTA Online (recurrent spending up 27% even ahead of VI), and the balance sheet, which ended Q3 with $2.16B in cash. Options markets imply the stock will see a 9.4% move on the release.

About the Author Thomas Richmond →

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.

His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.