Broadcom CEO Reveals on Conference Call That AI Semiconductor Bookings Last Quarter Hit $30 Billion – Shares Now Are Down 13%

Here’s another question from Broadcom’s earnings call that’s worth diving into. Morgan Stanley asked about why Broadcom’s backlog suddenly surged to $30 billion in the quarter. In Hock Tan’s response, he gave more details about the company gaining visibility into 2028.

With Broadcom getting more visibility into 2028, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tan had a good idea where growth will land that year, that’s he’s saving as another ‘wow’ moment in a future conference call. Here’s the exchange.

“Joseph Moore Morgan Stanley, Research Division

You talked about $30 billion of AI bookings in the quarter, which is a lot, I guess, relative to this quarter and next quarter shipments. Can you talk about the dynamic? Why is there so much backlog now? Or is there — you sort of said you can react to upside with supply, just why so many bookings this quarter relative to revenue?

Hock Tan Chief Executive Officer

Well, that’s — that’s a huge demand of compute — see a lot of large is few 6 customers now being realized that lead time to get compute, you need lead time. You need to be thoughtful. And it’s not just asking for wafers to get the chips on memory to ensure that HBMs are available or DRAM is available, they’re also talking about, “Hey, I got to have the power, the power shell.”

So all this is planning ahead. And what we are seeing the bookings that come in is not for immediate delivery some hope to have. But the reality, they all accept is they need to align quite a few other things in place before they can deliver. But they are placing their orders early and they’re placing their orders down, and they are placing orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility than we normally otherwise would have in semiconductors. . Our visibility runs all the way to 2028 right now.

Three months ago, I can tell you, visibility run pretty much ’27. Today, it runs ’28, and that’s — and that’s a big part of the reason why we are creating this XPV platform as really the platform to plan, to build up this cap — put in place such capacity for those lockfrontier model customers of ours who are seeing, as you guys are seeing in some of the financials, they are telling you and there are any experience you have, which is driving a huge amount of consumption of tokens from those compute capacity we are giving them. We have the benefit now of a lot of lead time. and we’re planning that.

And it’s not because of shortage of our components is also the other elements that need to be put in place, which particularly relates to power and connection to into an infrastructure globally through America, at least, that enables inference to be distributed through to consumers and enterprises throughout the country. So it’s — we’re just getting a lot of lead time.”

On Broadcom’s conference call, there was just a good question from Analyst Stacy Rasgon. He was probing to see if CEO Hock Tan would update guidance in ways beyond their expectations of AI revenues ‘in excess of $100 billion’ by asking about how many gigawatts of compute the company will ship.

During the exchange Hock Tan said something very interesting. Here’s the exchange with analysis below it.

“Stacy Rasgon Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, Research Division

Hock, you gave some gigawatt shipment targets for next year for your various customers. I just want to know, are those any different? Do they contemplate any change from what you said last quarter, where I think you said that was like close to 10 gigawatts, you’d be shipping in ’27. And can you just sort of help us shape the year? It sounded to me like you expected that to be more back half loaded in ’27 given the shape of the ramps. But most importantly, is there any change that is it more gigawatts or less gigawatts or the same gigawatts versus what you were suggesting last quarter?

Hock Tan Chief Executive Officer

Well, good question. Yes, for ’27, we indicated about 10 gigawatts shipment in ’27. There’s still very much intact. They will be shipping — we’re planning to ship 10 gigawatts in ’27. And that nothing has changed. Back half loaded to that extent, yes, and which really provides an interesting trajectory into ’28 with this back half trajectory. So ’28, we expect a lot more gigawatts.”

Here’s what’s important here. Earlier in the call, Broadcom had noted they’ve secured their supply for 2026 and 2027 and are negotiating for 2028 and 2029. Right now, Wall Street expects Broadcom to deliver $24.03 in EPS during Fiscal $24.03.

If Broadcom continues to hint at a ramp that year, shares could have more room for upside. For example, Broadcom shares currently trade at 17X Fiscal 2028 EPS expectations. If those expectations rose closer to $30 per share over time and growth rates for the year rose, that would leave more room for Broadcom to re-rate.

As we’ve noted in prior updates, Broadcom (AVGO) shares are falling in large part because the company hasn’t updated AI revenue guidance for 2027. Last quarter, Broadcom guided investors to ‘in excess of $100 billion’ in AI revenue last year.

On the call, Hock Tan hasn’t updated that number. In the first call with Wall Street, Tan gave his reasoning for leaving this number the same despite plenty of good news from the AI supply chain in the past quarter. Here’s what he had to say:

Hock Tan Chief Executive Officer

“I think you will easily see that 2027 will very easily $100 billion in 2027, which is pretty much what we indicated last quarter, and we are continuing to say that it will be over $100 billion in 2027.

So in that sense, if anything else, it might be based on what we’re doing very much on track, if not stronger. But — we’re not trying to guide you every quarter what 27 would be like. So we basically say we continue to be in excess of $100 billion in ’27. But it is on the same trajectory as we are seeing in the back half of ’26.”

So, if you’re looking at this as ‘glass half full,’ the reaction after-hours is likely Wall Street overreacting after Tan usually has something ‘bold’ to say on the company’s conference calls.

If you’re looking ‘glass half empty,’ Broadcom isn’t raising guidance at a time their main customer (Google) has been raising equity through secondary markets for an even bigger offering.

My personal opinion: this seems like an overreaction. Expecting updates to their 2027 guidance on a quarter-by-quarter basis is fairly unreasonable. That being said, as I’ve noted time and time again during this live blog, Broadcom had rallied significantly headed into earnings.

A company issuing just “fine” earnings and giving back its rally the week before is perfectly normal. Albeit, it certainly looks more dramatic when the stock drops 14% in after-hours trading!

We’re moving into Q&A. The downside of Hock Tan often dropping huge news on earnings calls is that when he doesn’t, it often leads to investors selling the stock even when earnings were fairly solid. If he reveals anything new during Q&A, we could probably see a recovery. Otherwise, I’d expect shares to open in the red tomorrow.

As a note: if you’re worried about Broadcom’s post-earnings drop, remember that shares were up 15% across the past week. Cloudflare was up more than 20% the week headed into its earnings, dropped 20% the next day after its beat wasn’t ‘big enough.’ Since that post-earnings drop, shares have rallied 42%.

What disappoints investors in the short run often has very little correlation to the direction of a stock long-term.

Broadcom’s (AVGO) conference call is ongoing. As we noted in our last update, shares fell recently (likely because CEO Hock Tan reiterated the company’s guidance of ‘in excess of $100 billion’ in AI revenue in 2027). However, they’re now rebounding some lost ground.

One of the big areas to watch in Broadcom’s conference calls is their partnerships with companies like Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta. These agreements can all scale to tens of billions in annual revenue, so tracking each one is important for investors. Here’s what CEO Hock Tan had to say about each:

Hock Tan Chief Executive Officer

“As you are aware, with Google, we announced in April that we entered into a long-term agreement to develop and supply multiple generations of TPUs and AI networking. Our relationship continues to be strategic and very substantial as we continue to deliver vastly superior technology and execution compared to other alternatives. This ability to provide differentiated value to Google ensures that our business will sustain and grow for the foreseeable future.

For Anthropic. As you know, for 2026, we are providing access to Broadcom TPU-based compute of over 1 gigawatt. In April, we entered into an agreement to enable Anthropic to access another 5 gigawatts of next-generation TPU-based compute beginning in 2027. For OpenAI, we have delivered silicon, and we are on track for production late 2026. We have a contractual commitment to deploy 1.3 gigawatts in 2027 as part of the larger 10 gigawatts that we by 2029 agreement we announced last year.

For Meta, in April, we announced a partnership to deliver multiple generations of MPIA XPUs. And under this agreement, we expect to deploy 3 gigawatts through the end of 2028. The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking has been received and we’ll start delivering in the second half of 2027. For our other 2 customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. To date, we have received purchase orders totaling $6 billion.”

We’re on the Broadcom earnings call, and right now it’s a standard introduction.

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Hey everyone – my name’s Eric Bleeker and I’ll be taking over for Thomas during Broadcom’s conference call.

Shares are currently down about 5% as of 5 p.m. ET. However, if there’s one conference call in all of technology that you need to pay attention to, its Broadcom’s. I’ve hosted several live blogs where Broadcom shares saw massive reversals (normally to the upside) as CEO Hock Tan dropped new whoppers.

We’ve often reacted to these statements in real time. So, if we say that some major news was just announced, pay attention… Because it might be the start of Broadcom’s shares reversing direction very quickly.

I will continue updating this live blog during Broadcom’s earnings call. So I strongly encourage you to leave this page open. New updates will post automatically. 

$16B AI Guidance Changes the Math

Hock Tan just delivered a step change in guidance. Management guided Q3 revenue to approximately $29.40 billion, implying 84% year-over-year growth, dramatically above the prior $22B Q2 run-rate.

The surprise sits in AI silicon. Tan guided Q3 AI semiconductor revenue to $16.00 billion, a jump from Q2’s $10.8B result and well beyond the bullish whisper of $12B. Tan said, “In Q3, we expect semiconductor revenue from AI to grow over 200% year-over-year.”

Margins were maintained: ~67% non-GAAP operating margin and ~68% adjusted EBITDA.

Four Surprises the Market Didn’t Price In

Q3 AI guide blew past the curve. Polymarket assigned just 3.0% probability to Q2 AI revenue clearing $12B, yet management guided Q3 AI semis to $16.0 billion, implying over 200% YoY growth.

Total Q3 revenue guide of $29.4 billion (+84% YoY) shattered the Street’s $23B anchor referenced earlier in this blog.

Margin leverage exceeded the 68% expectation. Operating income jumped +85.07% and net income +87.51%, with adjusted EBITDA margin landing at 69%.

Buybacks collapsed. Just $600 million repurchased versus $7.8 billion in Q1, despite cash swelling to $19.628 billion. That capital-return air pocket likely contributed to the market’s reaction despite the operational beat.

Conference Call Starts at 5:00 PM ET

Broadcom‘s (NASDAQ:AVGO) Q2 FY2026 call begins at 5:00 PM ET via webcast at investors.broadcom.com. With results out and shares down roughly 5%, management commentary will drive after-hours trading.

Top 5 Questions for Hock Tan

1. What is the customer mix behind the $16.0 billion Q3 AI guide, and is OpenAI XPU ramping?
2. Is the $73 billion AI backlog still current?
3. Does the 2027 $100B AI target need an upward revision?
4. Why did Infrastructure Software grow only 9%?
5. TSMC capacity constraints into 2027?

Clarify and Red Flags

Clarify: Gross margin mix shift, customer financing exposure, and pace of the $10B buyback after just $600 million repurchased in Q2.

Red flags: Cautious hyperscaler capex tone, inventory build, or customer concentration disclosures.

Historical Earnings Day Reactions

Tonight’s roughly 4% drop fits a fairly familiar pattern for Broadcom. Across eight consecutive beats, Broadcom’s day-of reaction has averaged +5.85%, while the next-day follow-through has averaged -1.16%, signaling routine profit-taking.

Additionally, the size of the beat has not always predicted the reaction. Q1 2025’s +6.11% beat produced an +8.64% move, while Q4 2024’s +2.16% beat triggered a +24.43% rip. The sharpest reversal came in February, when a 4.28% beat sparked an 11.43% selloff on guidance worries, mirroring today’s setup.

Recovery is typical: One-week returns average +0.81%, suggesting initial dips often fade once call commentary settles. Hock Tan’s Q3 guidance remains the swing factor.

Highlights

• AI semiconductor revenue reached $10.8 billion, topping management’s prior forecast of $10.7 billion.
• Q3 revenue guidance of $29.4 billion came in ahead of Wall Street estimates, with management forecasting 84% year-over-year growth.

Lowlights

• Total revenue only modestly exceeded consensus estimates, leaving little room for upside given Broadcom’s nearly $2.3 trillion valuation.
• While Q3 guidance beat published estimates, investors appeared to expect an even larger raise following the stock’s strong run heading into earnings.
• Broadcom guided to $16 billion in Q3 AI revenue, which appears to have fallen short of some of the more bullish Wall Street forecasts.

The Bottom Line

• Broadcom’s AI business remains strong, but expectations had become extraordinarily high heading into the report.
• Revenue growth will likely remain somewhat lumpy as large custom AI chip deployments are delivered to hyperscale customers.
• Shares initially fell roughly 8% after earnings before recovering part of the decline. As of 4:26 p.m. ET, the stock was down about 4%.
• Investors should pay close attention to Broadcom’s earnings call tonight at 5 PM ET. CEO Hock Tan frequently provides additional color on customer demand, AI deployments, backlog growth, and long-term revenue opportunities that can meaningfully change Wall Street’s interpretation of the quarter.

Broadcom’s AI business continues to accelerate. Management had guided for $10.7 billion in AI semiconductor revenue during Q2, but delivered $10.8 billion and now expects that figure to jump to $16 billion in Q3, representing more than 200% year-over-year growth.

The guidance suggests demand for custom AI accelerators and networking products remains extremely strong among hyperscale customers. AI revenue is quickly becoming one of the largest growth engines in all of technology.

Additionally, Semiconductor revenue soared 79% year over year to $15 billion in Q2, while infrastructure software grew just 9% to $7.2 billion. Semiconductors now account for 68% of total revenue, up from 56% a year ago.

The shift highlights how rapidly AI is reshaping Broadcom. Just a year ago, VMware was viewed as a major driver of the investment story. Today, AI chips and networking are generating the vast majority of Broadcom’s incremental growth.

Broadcom generated $10.3 billion of free cash flow during Q2, up 60% from a year ago and equal to roughly 46% of revenue.

The company ended the quarter with nearly $19.6 billion in cash while continuing to pay dividends and reduce debt.

At its current pace, Broadcom is on track to generate more than $40 billion in annualized free cash flow, giving management enormous flexibility to invest in AI, repurchase stock, and return capital to shareholders.

Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) reported another strong quarter, beating Wall Street’s expectations on both revenue and earnings. Despite the beat, shares fell roughly 8% immediately after earnings as investors digested the results against very high expectations.

Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $22.19B vs. $22.12B expected
• Adjusted EPS: $2.44 vs. $2.40 expected

Quick read:

• Broadcom delivered another solid quarter, with revenue up 48% year over year and EPS up 54%, extending one of the strongest growth streaks among mega-cap technology companies.
• Investors entered earnings expecting a major AI upside surprise, stronger guidance, and additional visibility into Broadcom’s path toward more than $100 billion in annual AI revenue, creating a high bar for the stock despite the beat.

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Broadcom (AVGO) shares are up 15% across the past five days. A big catalyst for recent gains is that their largest customer, Google, announced it was planning an $80 billion stock sale. The purpose of that sale is primarily to fund growing capital expenditures next year. 

That’s extremely important for Broadcom, because one of the main concerns from investors has been “just how much bigger can AI capex get.” After all, Google’s parent company, Alphabet (GOOG), has guided to $190 billion in capital expenditures this year. 

Wall Street expects Alphabet to generate $212 billion in cash from operations this year, so the company is effectively ‘tapped out’ on funding capital expenditures through its business. 

However, CNBC reported today that Alphabet’s secondary offering is multiple times oversubscribed. This opens the path to large technology companies issuing shares to continue funding AI buildouts in excess of their cash flow. 

Of course, this is great news for Anthropic. Google is a major customer, but in recent conference calls CEO Hock Tan has spoken of new engagements with customers like Anthropic. If funding continues flowing into the AI space, Broadcom will continue benefiting as its networking products and custom chips have become the top rival to NVIDIA. 

We expect Broadcom’s earnings to be released at about 4:15 p.m. ET, and we will continue updating this live blog. 

Broadcom generated more than $8 billion in free cash flow during Q1 and returned roughly $10.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The company also authorized another $10 billion repurchase program through the end of 2026.

The combination of rapid AI growth, stable margins, and massive cash generation is creating a powerful capital return engine. AI is driving revenue growth, VMware is supporting margins and recurring cash flow, and Broadcom’s growing cash generation is giving management more flexibility to buy back stock, raise dividends, and invest for future growth.

Broadcom’s AI chip business gets most of the attention, but VMware is becoming a major part of the company’s AI strategy.

VMware Cloud Foundation is increasingly being used to manage private AI infrastructure, helping enterprises connect GPUs, storage, networking, and compute resources into a single platform.

That gives Broadcom exposure to both sides of the AI stack. The company sells the hardware that powers AI workloads while also generating recurring software revenue from customers building AI infrastructure in their own data centers.

Investors often focus on Broadcom’s custom AI chips, but the networking business is becoming a major growth engine. Management’s guidance implies AI networking revenue could approach a $17 billion annual run rate, driven by demand for Ethernet switching and data center connectivity.

The company also appears to have an early lead in next-generation AI networking hardware. Broadcom’s Tomahawk 6 switch chip entered volume production months before several competing products, potentially giving it an advantage as hyperscalers build out massive AI clusters.

The result is a business that could become one of the most valuable networking franchises in the AI ecosystem.

Broadcom’s long-term AI story may be moving faster than Wall Street expects. The company’s current goal calls for more than $100 billion in AI chip revenue by 2027, but several major customer agreements announced after management last disclosed its $73 billion AI backlog could materially increase that figure.

Investors will be watching closely tonight to see whether Broadcom refreshes its backlog figures during earnings. New commitments from Meta, Alphabet, and Anthropic have strengthened visibility into future deployments and could support a higher long-term revenue outlook.

Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) has become one of the biggest winners of the AI infrastructure boom, but investors may be overlooking a growing risk: customer financing. Broadcom is helping support some of the massive capital commitments required to build next-generation AI infrastructure, including projects tied to OpenAI and Anthropic.

AI infrastructure projects are becoming extraordinarily expensive. Individual deployments can require tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars in capital, creating a financing challenge alongside the technology challenge. Broadcom’s long-term growth increasingly depends on customers securing the funding needed to build the systems they’ve committed to.

Investors are already focused on Broadcom’s reported $73 billion AI order book and management’s goal of generating more than $100 billion in annual AI chip revenue by 2027. The next question is whether customers can fund those deployments on schedule. Delays in financing could slow infrastructure buildouts even if demand remains strong.

Broadcom’s Q2 earnings call tonight could offer new clues about customer funding, deployment timelines, and how much visibility management has into the industry’s largest AI infrastructure projects.

What Wall Street Wants to Hear for Q3 Guidance

Hock Tan’s guidance will be Broadcom’s biggest potential catalyst tonight. He typically guides modestly. Q4 FY25’s $17.4B guide became $18.02B actual; Q1 FY26’s $8.2B AI guide printed $8.4B.

For Q3 FY2026, the street is anchoring on three numbers: total revenue tracking toward $23B+, AI semis at $12B+, and adjusted EBITDA margin holding at 68%. Investors also want hyperscaler color, especially OpenAI’s first-generation XPU ramp and VMware reacceleration above the $7.2B Q2 guide.

Bullish: Any Q3 AI figure above $12B validates the $100 billion 2027 path.

Bearish: A sub-$11B AI guide signals deceleration, with shares trading at 36x forward earnings.

What the Crowd Is Pricing In

Polymarket’s headline beat market is now pricing 96.1% odds that Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) tops Q2 EPS tonight, up from the 95.8% level cited in an earlier preview. Activity has surged, with $17,874.28 in 24-hour volume concentrated on the beat contract.

On AI revenue, the crowd assigns a 96.7% probability that the figure clears $10.5B and 81.0% above $11.0B, but only 29.0% above $11.5B and 8.0% above $12.0B. That frames the whisper number near $10.7B guidance.

Guidance Will Outweigh the Beat

Tonight’s reaction for Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) hinges on the company’s Q3 and full-year 2026 outlook. CEO Hock Tan typically guides conservatively, yet has raised AI semiconductor targets every quarter, with Q1 FY26 AI revenue hitting $8.4B versus an $8.2B prior guide.

Investors want explicit dollar figures on three lines: total revenue, AI semi revenue, and adjusted EBITDA margin (anchored at 67-68%).

Bullish setup: Q3 revenue guidance above $23 billion, AI semis above $12 billion, and reaffirmation of the $100B+ AI path by 2027.

Bearish setup: Revenue guide flat or below $22B, AI semis under $11B, or margin compression below 67%.

Polymarket prices only 8.5% odds on Q2 AI revenue clearing $12B, so any guidance above that level would reset the bar sharply higher.

Bull Case

• AI acceleration: Management guided Q2 AI revenue to $10.7 billion, up 140% year-on-year, with line of sight to over $100 billion in AI chip sales by 2027.
• Beat streak: 8 straight beats, and Polymarket prices 96% odds of another.
• Margins and cash: 68% adjusted EBITDA margin and $8.01B free cash flow support buybacks.

Bear Case

• Priced for perfection: Shares are up 39.42% YTD at a 36x forward P/E.
• Post-earnings reversals: Q4 2025’s +4.28% beat triggered an 11.43% drop.
• Insider selling: Zero insider purchases over three months, with heavy C-suite selling.
• Software drag: Infrastructure Software grew just 1% in Q1.

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) enters earnings with one of the highest bars in the market. The company has beaten EPS expectations in each of its last five quarters, while prediction markets now price a 95.8% chance that it beats again.

Broadcom is now worth roughly $2.29 trillion, and the stock has gained 95.18% over the past year. At that size, investors are already pricing in massive AI infrastructure demand, continued custom silicon momentum, and strong visibility from hyperscaler customers.

Investors will be watching for an AI revenue beat, stronger Q3 guidance, and better visibility into 2027 demand. Custom AI accelerators have become the center of the bull case, and any sign that large cloud customers are expanding orders could keep the rally going.

With the stock nearly doubling over the past year, investors are likely expecting more than just solid results heading into Q2 earnings.