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Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) will be reporting Q2 2026 earnings results tonight at around 4:00 PM ET. AWS acceleration, Prime Day contribution, and a $200B AI infrastructure buildout put this report at the center of the current Mag 7 earnings week.
AI Spend Meets Margin Discipline
Q1 2026 set a high bar. Amazon delivered $2.78 EPS versus a $1.64 estimate, revenue of $181.52B, up 16.6% YoY, and operating income of $23.85B, up 30%. AWS grew 28%, its fastest in 15 quarters, with a 37.7% operating margin.
Since then, shares have cooled. AMZN closed at $226.65 yesterday, down 5.62% over one month and 1.81% YTD. Andy Jassy framed the setup bluntly: “We’re in the middle of some of the biggest inflections of our lifetime, we’re well positioned to lead, and I’m very optimistic about what’s ahead.”
Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q2 2026 Estimate |
Company Guidance |
FY 2026 |
FY 2027 |
| Revenue |
$196.4B |
$194.0B to $199.0B |
N/A |
N/A |
| EPS (Normalized) |
$1.82 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| Operating Income |
N/A |
$20.0B to $24.0B |
N/A |
N/A |
Revenue guidance implies 16%-19% YoY growth, an acceleration from Q1. The operating income band, compared with $19.2B a year ago, reflects pressure from a $1B step-up in Leo satellite costs and elevated AI depreciation.
AWS, Chips, and the Capex Question
Tonight, I’ll be watching AWS growth first. Sustaining 28% on this base would validate the company’s capex thesis. Any deceleration reopens the debate that dogged shares through July.
Trainium and Graviton are a second item to watch. Amazon’s chip business hit a $20B+ revenue run rate, growing in the triple digits, with OpenAI committing ~2 GW of Trainium capacity starting in 2027 and Anthropic up to 5 GW. Bedrock adoption also matters: Q1 processed more tokens than all prior periods combined, with 170% QoQ growth in customer spend.
Investors will also focus on margins. AWS operating margin slipped to 37.7% from 39.5% a year earlier as depreciation ramps. North America margin, by contrast, expanded to 7.9% from 6.3%. Advertising, now over $70B TTM and up 24%, remains a sneaky profit lever.
Finally, the tone on tariffs. Management flagged FX, trade policy, and memory chip supply as Q2 risks, and Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% chance the call mentions tariffs.
Earnings History
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
Day-Of Move |
1-Day Move |
1-Week Move |
| Q1 2026 |
+60.69% |
+0.77% |
+1.21% |
+2.31% |
| Q4 2025 |
0% |
-5.55% |
-0.76% |
-5.48% |
| Q3 2025 |
+26.62% |
+9.58% |
+4.00% |
+0.08% |
| Q2 2025 |
+26.32% |
-8.27% |
-1.44% |
+3.70% |
On average, shares moved 2.72% in the week after an earnings beat over the past year.
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