NVIDIA Is Now Up 20% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More?
NVIDIA just handed investors a report that left every semiconductor peer in the dust, and now the stock sits near all-time highs with a market cap that would make most countries nervous. The question of whether to lock in gains…
The AI trade narrowed to one name in August, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) is the entire story. NVIDIA delivered much of the semiconductor sector’s monthly gains while the rest of the group essentially stood still. For investors watching the space, that’s a concentration signal about where AI capex dollars are actually landing, and it sharpens the take-profit-versus-add question after Wednesday’s results.
NVIDIA stock is up 19.8% over the past month, with most of the advance packed into the sessions around the company’s August 26 earnings release. In Thursday afternoon trading, NVIDIA shares are up 8% to $225.61, extending the rally into a fresh leg after the results and pushing back toward the stock’s 52-week high of $236.26.
The framing evidence sits inside the sector fund that owns the name. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) was up 0.9% over the same month, marking a striking gap given the ETF holds NVIDIA as a top position. Capital concentrated in one name this month, and the fund’s muted return is the evidence.
Earnings Reset the Bar for AI Demand
NVIDIA reported fiscal Q2 2027 results after Wednesday’s close, and the numbers cleared the bar. Revenue more than doubled to $96.2 billion against expectations of $92.1 billion, and adjusted earnings came in at $2.22 per share against $2.09 expected, marking a fifth consecutive quarterly beat.
Data Center revenue alone reached $89.02 billion, up 117% year over year, with non-GAAP gross margin expanding to 75%.
Guidance carried the rest of the reaction. NVIDIA guided fiscal 2028 revenue growth of 70%, and CEO Jensen Huang told the call, “Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%”. Fiscal Q3 2027 revenue guidance landed at $108 billion, excluding any China Data Center compute contribution.
NVIDIA’s purchase commitments swelled from $119 billion in the prior quarter to $279 billion, tied primarily to memory for NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin ramp. That’s a forward pipeline signal about the shape of AI demand into fiscal 2028, and it helps explain why NVIDIA stock ran while the rest of the sector barely budged.
Furthermore, NVIDIA’s free cash flow yield sits at 1.9%, and the company returned $26 billion to shareholders in the quarter, with $99 billion left under its buyback authorization.
Peers Trail the Leader
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) stock and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) stock each gained 10% over the past month, meaningful moves in isolation but half of NVIDIA’s advance over the same period. Meanwhile, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) shares slipped 0.5% over that stretch, even as Broadcom’s custom accelerator franchise remains one of the loudest bull cases in AI silicon.
Capital concentrated in the company whose results most directly confirmed the AI infrastructure spend, while a broader sector re-rating would have lifted AMD, Intel, and Broadcom in step with NVIDIA. That same buildout also flows to the power, cooling, and networking suppliers behind the data centers, seven of which we profiled in a free report. Instead, the semiconductor fund holding all four of the chip names barely moved.
Reddit chatter reinforces the pattern. NVIDIA sentiment flipped sharply bullish after the report, with post-earnings readings reaching a score of 74 by Thursday morning after neutral discussion the prior day, and driving posts included “Nvidia earnings proved 2 things again…” from wallstreetbets. Broadcom and AMD Reddit sentiment stayed bearish over the same window, another indicator that both money and attention narrowed to NVIDIA.
Take Profits, or Buy More?
Both cases have merit here. NVIDIA’s report validated AI infrastructure demand at a scale the rest of the sector cannot match, and management’s willingness to guide to 70% growth for fiscal 2028 while calling supply the binding constraint suggests the ceiling is set by capacity. Analyst consensus still leans bullish on the setup, with an average price target of $304.73 and 58 buy or strong buy ratings against three neutral or negative calls.
However, NVIDIA stock is more expensive and more crowded than it was a month ago. The shares trade at a P/E ratio of 42.29x with a $5.49 trillion market cap, and $279 billion in supply commitments is a substantial forward bet on the AI capex cycle continuing to compound. Investors sitting on outsized gains from the month should consider trimming their positions back to a target weight without abandoning the thesis, while those underexposed can add on any pullback and keep their exposure modest given the stock’s 2.215 beta.
Traders can watch for whether today’s post-earnings enthusiasm holds through the close. Also, NVDA shareholders may want to check for whether the $279 billion supply commitment reads through to revenue in the coming quarters.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.
His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.
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