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Prediction: Eli Lilly Could Be the Next $2 Trillion Drugmaker

Eli Lilly just posted a 47.7% revenue surge while rivals like Novo Nordisk are watching earnings fall, and a fresh pipeline catalyst could push Lilly toward a valuation Wall Street has only seen from two companies in history.

By Vandita Jadeja
Published October 2, 2026, 9:00am ET · 3 min read

Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.

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Two blue and white medical injection pens, one with a needle exposed, lie on a light brown wooden cutting board next to a coiled white measuring tape. The pens have labels displaying '1 mg' and '0 mg'.
Medical injection pens and a measuring tape symbolize the growing market for GLP-1 drugs, a key battleground for pharmaceutical giants like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in the obesity treatment race. © Caroline Ruda / Shutterstock.com

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) trades at $1,184.92, which gives it a market value of about $1.057 trillion. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Eli Lilly is $1,401.42 over the next 12 months. That means 18.27% upside and earns a high-confidence buy rating from our model.

An infographic titled 'Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) 12-Month Price Prediction' by 24/7 Wall St. The top section, 'THE CALL,' shows the current price of $1,184.92 and a price target of $1,401.42, with an arrow pointing upwards, indicating a +18.27% UPSIDE and a 'BUY' recommendation with 90% High Confidence. The 'HOW WE GOT THERE' section displays a bar chart showing contributing prices: Forward P/E-Based Price: $1,215.72 (50% weight), Analyst Consensus: $1,328.83 (30% weight), and Trailing P/E-Based Price: $1,184.92 (20% weight), leading to a Weighted Base of $1,243.50. The 'OUR ADJUSTMENTS' section features a waterfall chart starting from a Base Price of $1,243.50, showing increments for Market Sentiment (+0.9%), Earnings Growth (+2.6%), Sector Momentum (+1.1%), Analyst Contribution (+4.4%), and a 24/7 Factor Adjustment of +$157.92 (1.127x), culminating in a Final Target of $1,401.42. A 'BULL CASE - What Could Go Right' section lists: Retatrutide BLA Submission (Q1 2027), Foundayo Global Rollout (2027), and Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program (20M Eligible), with a Bull Case Target of $1,460.67 (+23.27%). A 'BEAR CASE - What Could Go Wrong' section lists: Declining Realized Prices (-9% U.S. Ex-Rebates), Revenue Concentration (Mounjaro/Zepbound), and Generic Competition & Litigation, with a Bear Case Target of $1,191.31 (+0.54%). The bottom line reiterates 'BUY +18.27% UPSIDE Price Target: $1,401.42' and states, 'Strong earnings growth and pipeline catalysts drive a high-confidence buy rating.'
24/7 Wall St.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Metric Value
Current Price $1,184.92
Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $1,401.42
Upside/Downside 18.27%
Recommendation BUY
Confidence Level 90%

If shares hit our target, Lilly would be worth about $1.25 trillion. A $2 trillion valuation would take a share price near $2,243 on today’s share count. It sits above our base-case 2031 milestone of $2,000.56, so the headline goal depends on the pipeline outperforming.

LLY price target

A Blowout Q2 and Fresh Retatrutide Data Keep Lilly Near Its Highs

Shares have gained 1.21% over the past week, 10.74% year to date and 64.04% over the past year. The stock sits 8.3% below its 52-week high of $1,292.65.

Second-quarter revenue of $22.97 billion rose 47.7% and beat the $20.69 billion consensus. EPS of $8.38 exceeded the $6.58 estimate even after $3.03 of acquired IPR&D charges. Management also raised full-year revenue guidance to $85 billion to $87 billion.

September added to the momentum. The FDA approved Onswik, a once-weekly insulin, on September 24. At the EASD meeting, Lilly presented new retatrutide results and a comparison in which Foundayo beat oral semaglutide.

LLY price scenario

Why Bulls See $1,460 and Beyond

Lilly plans to file retatrutide in Q1 2027, after trial patients lost up to 71.2 lbs. Foundayo prescribers rose to about 36,000, and a global rollout is planned for 2027.

Medicare’s GLP-1 Bridge Program opened coverage to 20 million eligible Americans. Analysts expect 2027 EPS of $47.5425, up from $44.4568 90 days ago. The consensus target is $1,328.83. Our bull case hits $1,460.67, or 23.27% upside.

LLY analyst ratings

Falling GLP-1 Prices Could Stall the Rally

Excluding rebate adjustments, U.S. prices fell 9% last quarter. Mounjaro and Zepbound brought in $14.9 billion, most of Lilly’s revenue. Generic semaglutide is now on sale in India and Brazil, and the retatrutide filing pathway faces litigation. One analyst rates the stock Sell and another Strong Sell.

The bear case of $1,191.31 suggests little gain from here. On the other side, the IPR&D charges come from acquisitions and do not repeat. Volume growth also more than made up for lower prices.

Lilly Earns Its Premium Over Novo Nordisk, Merck and AbbVie

Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) is Lilly’s direct GLP-1 rival. It trades at 12x forward earnings, but quarterly earnings fell 20.6%. Merck (NYSE:MRK) shows what a mature pharma multiple looks like. AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) competes with Lilly in immunology.

Company Forward P/E Quarterly Revenue Growth
Eli Lilly 24x 47.7%
Novo Nordisk 12x 2.1%
Merck 15x 5.1%
AbbVie 16x 10.2%

Lilly is growing revenue several times faster than any of these peers. That growth supports its higher multiple and makes the 24/7 Wall St. price target look reasonable.

Lilly Still Has Room to Run

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,401.42 carries a buy rating and high confidence. What tips the scale is rising earnings estimates.

Bulls stay in control if volume continues outpacing price cuts and retatrutide files on schedule. Bears take over if U.S. price declines grow faster than prescriptions. Right now, the growth numbers favor the bulls.

Here is where our model projects Lilly trading if current growth trends and market conditions hold.

Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St.
2026 $1,233.89
2027 $1,406.11
2028 $1,583.87
2029 $1,748.51
2030 $1,889.79

These projections assume Lilly continues executing its current strategy. Retatrutide’s approval or faster GLP-1 price erosion could drive results well above or below this path.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

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