Alphabet Has Lost About $860 Billion Since Its Peak, Nearly a Whole Walmart. Apple Has Avoided the AI Race and Is Near All-Time Highs.
One tech giant has burned through capital at a pace that would swallow entire industries, while the other has quietly crept back toward record territory. For retirement investors, the choice between these two titans comes down to a bet on…
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL | GOOGL Price Prediction) or Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): which one better fits a retirement-focused portfolio right now? Alphabet has lost about $860 billion in market value since its peak. That is close to the entire value of Walmart, which is worth $937.1 billion. In an October 17 post on X, Charlie Bilello of Creative Planning listed Apple 0% below its all-time high and Google 17% below. Apple is now worth $4.95 trillion, while Alphabet is worth $4.21 trillion.
How AI Spending Split Two Giants
From November 30, 2022, when ChatGPT launched, through today, Apple gained 133.5%. That trailed the AI leaders: Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) at 1204.35%, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) at 501%, Alphabet at 232.5% and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) at 169.9%. Apple still beat Microsoft at 113.78% and Tesla at 96.24%.
That flipped in 2026. As concerns of heavy AI spending grew, Apple became the group’s safe haven and now leads the Magnificent Seven year to date at 25.26%, while Alphabet is up just 6.47%. Over twelve months the two are even (Alphabet up 29.99%, Apple up 29.98%), but Alphabet has fallen 4.84% in the past month.
Capital spending explains the gap. In the June 2026 quarter, Apple spent $2.455 billion on data centers, chips and equipment. Alphabet spent $44.92 billion. Alphabet’s latest guidance puts full-year capex as high as $185 billion. It also raised about $70 billion in equity and debt last quarter, and Yahoo Finance reported the shares fell 7% in July after it raised its AI spending outlook. All that capex has to be powered, cooled and networked by somebody, which is why we rounded up seven suppliers behind the data-center expansion in a free report.
Valuation: Alphabet Wins Clearly
Alphabet trades at 15 times trailing earnings, while Apple trades at 44. That trailing figure helps Alphabet, because a $99B equity securities gain inflated second-quarter EPS of $9.11. On forward earnings, the gap shrinks without closing: 23x for Alphabet versus 35x for Apple. Alphabet is the cheaper stock on any basis.
Income: Apple Wins Because the Cash Keeps Coming
Alphabet’s yield of 0.50% tops Apple’s 0.31%, but Alphabet’s capacity to keep paying is weaker. Alphabet suspended buybacks in the second quarter, posted free cash flow of -$5.86B, and saw long-term debt rise from $46.5B to $98.2B. Apple returned $33 billion to shareholders last quarter, raised its quarterly dividend to $0.27, and has a fresh $100B buyback authorization. If Alphabet’s AI returns fall short, shareholder payouts are what gets cut first.
Growth: Alphabet’s Cloud Surge Takes It
Alphabet grew second-quarter revenue 24.2% to $119.80B, with Google Cloud up 82%. Apple’s June-quarter revenue rose 16.4%, a strong number that included about $0.11 of EPS from one-time tariff refunds. Apple guided September-quarter growth to 9%-11%. Alphabet is growing faster, and the gap is widening.
Verdict: Apple Fits Retirement Goals Better Today
For a conservative investor near retirement, Apple wins. It funds its AI push without borrowing billions, keeps buybacks and dividend increases intact, and carries far less exposure to an unproven capex cycle. The key risk: Apple could fall behind if AI pays off. Asked how it will cover AI compute costs, then-CEO Tim Cook said, “It’s obviously early going for us. I don’t want to say that we have a complete plan for that.” A 44 multiple also leaves little room for a stumble.
Alphabet fits an investor with decades before withdrawals who can ride out a drawdown. If the $185 billion expansion Alphabet has guided pays off, the discount closes and losses reverse. For retirement money that needs to stay steady and keep paying out, Apple is the stronger stock right now.
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AJ spent 10 years writing about financial markets at The Motley Fool. His coverage centers on technology stocks and the broader macroeconomic trends, from interest rates to geopolitics, that shape where markets are headed next. AJ is drawn to the stories where big-picture economics and individual companies collide.
