Live update #4

Prediction Markets Are Betting on Western Digital’s Exabyte Shipment Volume

From live coverage: Live: Will Western Digital's Q1 Earnings Tonight Reverse a Brutal 24% Selloff?
WDC
Western Digital

Prediction markets


Will Western Digital (WDC) Q1 exabytes shipped be above __?
Polymarket · $3k traded · resolves Thu, Oct 22

Traders on Polymarket are pricing exabytes shipped as tonight's swing factor, with the lowest volume threshold favored at 70% and the top rungs of the ladder priced near even odds. That ladder tells you the crowd expects shipment growth, but is far less certain it clears the high bar implied by the AI storage narrative.

Outcome odds
  • Western Digital (WDC) Q1 exabytes shippe

    70%

  • Western Digital (WDC) Q1 exabytes shippe

    63%

  • Western Digital (WDC) Q1 exabytes shippe

    51%

  • Western Digital (WDC) Q1 exabytes shippe

    43%

  • Western Digital (WDC) Q1 exabytes shippe

    43%

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Western Digital Q1 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Western Digital’s Q1 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Western Digital Q1 Earnings Call Preview

Thomas Richmond
WDC
Western Digital

Call preview · Q1 2027

4:20pm ET

Thu, Oct 22
Earnings call · after close

With gross margin already guided to 60%-61% for the January quarter, the recurring margin-durability thread analysts raised on each of the last three calls now shifts to how long that pricing holds. Expect the questions to center on LTA contract terms and the HAMR transition, since that is what tells investors whether the 58.1% margin is a new baseline or a cycle peak.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q2 26Q3 26Q4 26Q1 27
  • Pricing dynamics and LTA contracts
  • HAMR and ePMR technology transitions
  • Gross margin expansion and durability
  • Cost per exabyte reduction trends
  • Capital structure and SanDisk monetization
  • Agentic AI and HDD workloads

Western Digital's Full Q1 Key Numbers

Thomas Richmond
WDC
Western Digital

Q1 FY2027 reported

4:24pm ET

  • Revenue$4.38B+55.5%
  • Gross profit$2.53B+107%
  • Operating income$2.05B+158%
  • Net income$1.78B+50.5%
  • Operating cash flow$1.60B+139%
  • Free cash flow$1.38B+130%
  • Capex$227M+211%
  • Cash$1.31B-35.8%

Operating income of $2.05 billion on $4.38 billion of revenue means nearly half of every dollar sold dropped to operating profit, the payoff from locked long-term agreement pricing the analyst questions kept circling this afternoon. Free cash flow of $1.38 billion more than doubled, funding the ramp without straining the balance sheet.

Western Digital's Q1 Double-Beat Delivery

Thomas Richmond
WDC
Western Digital

Q1 2027

4:04pm ET

EPS
$4.64
est $4.08
+13.8%

Revenue
$4.38B
est $4.14B
+5.9%

AI storage demand pushed non-GAAP gross margin to 58.1% from 43.9% a year ago, the kind of expansion that resets what this business can earn. Management's guidance and a dividend raised to $0.175 a share also instill confidence in investors.

Western Digital Q1 Earnings Are Out - Stock Pops 4% After Crushing Wall Street Expectations

Thomas Richmond

Western Digital just reported fiscal Q1 earnings, with shares initially jumping 4% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $4.381 billion vs. $4.15 billion expected (Beat by 6%)
  • EPS: $4.64 vs. $4.10 expected (Beat by 13%)

Quick Read:

  • Massive earnings growth: Western Digital crushed Wall Street’s expectations, with EPS surging 161% year over year and 30% quarter over quarter.
  • Revenue growth accelerates: Sales jumped 55% year over year and 17% sequentially, highlighting continued momentum in the company’s data storage business.

Western Digital’s initial 4% after-hours rally comes after a brutal selloff leading into earnings, suggesting the strong results could help restore investor confidence.

Western Digital Plummeted 7%. Can Tonight's Earnings Spark a Recovery?

Thomas Richmond
WDC
Western Digital

Regular session

2:55pm ET

$351.70
-7.08%
open $378.51

$367$357$348

A 7.1% slide to $351.70 took roughly $9 billion off the market cap of the $131.6 billion storage company in a single session. Moves this size rarely settle in a day, so keep an eye on whether the stock stabilizes near these levels.

$WDC's Key Takeaways From Last Quarter

Thomas Richmond
WDC
Western Digital

Last quarter — Q4 FY2026

3:05pm ET

EPS
$3.56vs $3.29 est +8.1%
Revenue
$3.75Bvs $3.70B est +1.3%

Q4 FY2026 showed pricing power doing the heavy lifting: the EPS upside ran far ahead of the revenue upside, which is what happens when hard drive and NAND contract prices climb faster than volumes. That makes tonight's gross margin guidance the number that decides whether the AI storage trade still has room to run.

next print Thu, Oct 22

Western Digital Stock Has Fallen After 3 of Its Most Recent Earnings Reports

Thomas Richmond
WDC
Western Digital

Earnings preview · Q1 FY2027

2:55pm ET

Reports
Thu, Oct 22After close
Consensus EPS
$4.08
Consensus revenue
$4.14B

Western Digital has beaten on every one of its last six reports, yet the stock fell after three of the most recent ones, so the setup tonight is about whether a beat is finally enough. With a 22% drawdown over the past month already pricing in caution, the margin and pricing commentary will carry more weight than the headline.

What to watch
  • Gross margin guidance against the 55% to 56% range flagged earlier today
  • Hard drive pricing and whether AI data center demand is locked into long-term agreements
  • Commentary on NAND and HDD supply tightness heading into 2027
  • Capacity expansion plans and capex for the coming year
EPS surprise vs consensus Beat 6 of last 6
  • Q3 FY2025

    +22.5%

  • Q4 FY2025

    +12.1%

  • Q1 FY2026

    +12.7%

  • Q2 FY2026

    +10.4%

  • Q3 FY2026

    +13.8%

  • Q4 FY2026

    +8.1%

Earnings-day stock move · last 3 reports
  • Q1 FY2026

    -2.3%

  • Q2 FY2026

    -10.1%

  • Q3 FY2026

    -0.7%

Analysts' Top Questions for Western Digital Ahead of Q1 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
WDC
Western Digital

Call preview · Q1 FY2027

3:00pm ET

Thu, Oct 22
Earnings call · after close

Analysts have pressed management on gross margin expansion and its durability on all four of the last calls, and that thread decides tonight's reaction: with long-term agreement pricing locked and the HAMR ramp still early, the margin commentary is what tells investors whether AI storage demand is translating into profit or just volume. Cost per exabyte and yield progress are the supporting evidence to listen for.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26
  • HAMR & UltraSMR technology ramp
  • LTA structure & pricing dynamics
  • Gross margin expansion & durability
  • AI workloads & Agentic AI demand
  • Cost per exabyte & yield improvements
  • Capital structure & SanDisk monetization

Western Digital Crashed 22% in a Month. Can Q3 Earnings Tonight Spark a Recovery?

Thomas Richmond

Western Digital is expected to report earnings at 4:00 PM ET tonight, with Wall Street watching whether booming AI storage demand can justify the stock’s enormous gains over the past year.

Analysts expect roughly $4.14 billion in revenue, slightly above management’s $4.10 billion forecast. Investors will also be watching gross margin guidance of 55% to 56% for evidence that stronger hard drive pricing and demand for 40TB drives are translating into higher profits.

Despite beating earnings expectations for five consecutive quarters, Western Digital shares have plunged 21.93% over the past month. However, the stock remains up an incredible 188.73% over the past year, giving the company a market capitalization of approximately $131 billion.

The big question tonight is whether Western Digital can demonstrate that AI-driven storage demand and stronger pricing are sustainable.

Another strong quarter could help reverse the recent selloff, while signs of slowing demand could raise concerns that the AI storage boom is approaching its peak.

View the full live blog (11 updates) →