Prediction markets
Traders on Polymarket are pricing a Robinhood earnings beat at 87% ahead of tonight's earnings report, even with consensus EPS set at $0.55 and crypto revenue expected to fall sharply. Volume on the contract is thin, so the 87% reads as a sentiment gauge on the quarter.
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That wraps up our initial coverage of Robinhood’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!
Robinhood just reported Q3 earnings, with shares initially down 5% following the report. Both revenue and earnings missed Wall Street expectations.
Quick Read:
Balance sheet · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026
3:15pm ET
Robinhood's debt load climbed to $22.7 billion in Q2 2026 from $12.6 billion a year earlier, much of it the funding that supports margin books and customer balances, while equity inched up to $9.5 billion and the current ratio held near 1.22. That makes tonight's earnings report as much about whether balance sheet growth is translating into net interest revenue as it is about crypto softness.
$-1.5B$-10B$-19B
Margin story · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026
3:10pm ET
Robinhood's operating margin has swung between 38.5% and 50.7% over the past six quarters, tracking the revenue mix: the softest readings (Q1 2026 at 38.5%) came in the quarters with the lightest revenue. With crypto revenue expected to drop sharply this quarter, operating margin is the cleanest indicator of whether prediction markets and Gold are carrying the load tonight.
57.5%39.3%21.2%
Technical setup
2:35pm ET
Robinhood goes into tonight's report sitting right on its 200-day average at $93.04, with first support at $92.12 just below. That cluster is the line that matters: hold it and the $112.31 resistance, roughly where the 50-day sits at $108.80, becomes the upside target. Lose it and the next shelf is all the way down at $73.72.
Tracked 13F positioning
3:05pm ET
$525M-0.1%
$344M—
$220M-0.6%
$90M—
$27M—
$14M-0.9%
$13M-1.0%
$12M+2.0%
+ 3 more tracked holders
As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.
Among 11 institutional filers, five trimmed Robinhood and only three added as of the June 30 disclosures, with Renaissance Technologies, Millennium and Two Sigma all cutting sharply while ARK Invest stayed the anchor holder. Those filings are roughly 45 days stale and predate the quarter being reported tonight, so they say nothing about where these funds sit now, but the group went into the back half leaning lighter rather than heavier.
Options positioning
2:25pm ET
A 0.43 put/call ratio into tonight's earnings says traders are leaning heavily toward calls, which reads as confidence, though extremes like this just as often mark the point where positioning gets caught offside. At-the-money implied volatility of 114.7% on the $94 strike expiring October 30 shows how wide the options market is drawing the range around this report.
1.5k / 206
2.7k / 299
885 / 532
1.9k / 563
2.7k / 1.2k
1k / 667
Last quarter — Q2 2026
2:20pm ET
In Q2, Robinhood's revenue met expectations while profit exceeded them, a margin story built on scale. Crypto revenue is expected to shrink sharply this quarter, leaving the Gold, deposits and prediction-markets engine to carry it.
$128$106$84
Reported Wed, Jul 29 · next print Tue, Oct 27
Robinhood reports Q3 earnings tonight, with analysts expecting $1.43 billion in revenue and $0.55 in EPS.
Shares have fallen 19.22% over the past month, despite record customer deposits, Gold subscribers, and platform assets.
Investors will be watching whether prediction markets, Agentic Trading, and Trump Accounts can offset an expected 38% decline in crypto revenue.
Strong results could reinforce management’s ambition to grow the business tenfold over the next decade.
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