Live Live update #7

Robinhood’s 44% Operating Margin Faces a Major Test Tonight

From live coverage: Live: Will Robinhood Smash Q3 Earnings Tonight After a 3% Intraday Climb?
HOOD
Robinhood

Margin story · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026


Gross
82.0%+0.2pp YoY
Operating
43.9%-0.5pp YoY
Net
42.9%+3.9pp YoY

Robinhood's operating margin has swung between 38.5% and 50.7% over the past six quarters, tracking the revenue mix: the softest readings (Q1 2026 at 38.5%) came in the quarters with the lightest revenue. With crypto revenue expected to drop sharply this quarter, operating margin is the cleanest indicator of whether prediction markets and Gold are carrying the load tonight.

Operating margin by quarter

57.5%39.3%21.2%

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Robinhood Q3 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Robinhood’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Robinhood Q3 Earnings Are Out - Stock Drops 5% on Double Miss

Thomas Richmond

Robinhood just reported Q3 earnings, with shares initially down 5% following the report. Both revenue and earnings missed Wall Street expectations.

  • Revenue: $1.424 billion vs. $1.43 billion expected
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.51 vs. $0.55 expected

Quick Read:

  • Double Miss: Revenue missed estimates slightly, while EPS fell approximately 7% short of expectations.
  • Growth vs. Profitability: Revenue increased 12% year over year and 9% sequentially, but EPS declined 16% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter.

Balance Sheet Check: Robinhood Heads Into Q3 With $17B of Net Debt

Thomas Richmond
HOOD
Robinhood

Balance sheet · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026

3:15pm ET

$17.34BNet debt
Cash $5.36B · Debt $22.71B · Equity $9.48B · Current ratio 1.22×

Robinhood's debt load climbed to $22.7 billion in Q2 2026 from $12.6 billion a year earlier, much of it the funding that supports margin books and customer balances, while equity inched up to $9.5 billion and the current ratio held near 1.22. That makes tonight's earnings report as much about whether balance sheet growth is translating into net interest revenue as it is about crypto softness.

Net cash by quarter

$-1.5B$-10B$-19B

Robinhood's Technical Setup Heading Into Q3 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
HOOD
Robinhood

Technical setup

2:35pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Tue, Oct 27
  • R2$124.37+29.6%
  • R1$112.31+17.0%
  • Now$95.98
  • S1$92.12-4.0%
  • S2$73.72-23.2%
50-day avg
$108.80-11.8% below
200-day avg
$93.04+3.2% above
52-week range
$63.52 – $150.47

Robinhood goes into tonight's report sitting right on its 200-day average at $93.04, with first support at $92.12 just below. That cluster is the line that matters: hold it and the $112.31 resistance, roughly where the 50-day sits at $108.80, becomes the upside target. Lose it and the next shelf is all the way down at $73.72.

The Top Hedge Funds Betting Big on Robinhood Today

Thomas Richmond
HOOD
Robinhood

Tracked 13F positioning

3:05pm ET

$1.3Bacross 11 tracked filers
3 added · 5 trimmed · 1 new

  • ARK Investment Management LLC

    $525M-0.1%

  • Marshall Wace LLP

    $344M—

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC

    $220M-0.6%

  • Altimeter Capital Management

    $90M—

  • Brevan Howard

    $27M—

  • Millennium Management LLC

    $14M-0.9%

  • Two Sigma Investments LLC

    $13M-1.0%

  • Balyasny Asset Management LP

    $12M+2.0%

+ 3 more tracked holders

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Among 11 institutional filers, five trimmed Robinhood and only three added as of the June 30 disclosures, with Renaissance Technologies, Millennium and Two Sigma all cutting sharply while ARK Invest stayed the anchor holder. Those filings are roughly 45 days stale and predate the quarter being reported tonight, so they say nothing about where these funds sit now, but the group went into the back half leaning lighter rather than heavier.

Polymarket Sees 87% Odds Robinhood Beats Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
HOOD
Robinhood

Prediction markets

2:30pm ET

Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?
87%Yes
Polymarket · $2k traded · resolves Tue, Oct 27

Traders on Polymarket are pricing a Robinhood earnings beat at 87% ahead of tonight's earnings report, even with consensus EPS set at $0.55 and crypto revenue expected to fall sharply. Volume on the contract is thin, so the 87% reads as a sentiment gauge on the quarter.

Robinhood Option Traders Are Strongly Bullish Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
HOOD
Robinhood

Options positioning

2:25pm ET

Put/call 0.43Calls dominant
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
114.7%
Expiry
Fri, Oct 30chain as of Mon, Oct 26

A 0.43 put/call ratio into tonight's earnings says traders are leaning heavily toward calls, which reads as confidence, though extremes like this just as often mark the point where positioning gets caught offside. At-the-money implied volatility of 114.7% on the $94 strike expiring October 30 shows how wide the options market is drawing the range around this report.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $91

    1.5k / 206

  • $92

    2.7k / 299

  • $93

    885 / 532

  • $94

    1.9k / 563

  • $95

    2.7k / 1.2k

  • $96

    1k / 667

Robinhood's Key Takeaways From Last Quarter

Thomas Richmond
HOOD
Robinhood

Last quarter — Q2 2026

2:20pm ET

EPS
$0.62vs $0.43 est +43.7%
Revenue
$1.31Bvs $1.28B est +2.1%
Earnings-day move -3.6%Since report +6.7%

In Q2, Robinhood's revenue met expectations while profit exceeded them, a margin story built on scale. Crypto revenue is expected to shrink sharply this quarter, leaving the Gold, deposits and prediction-markets engine to carry it.

Price since the report

$128$106$84

Reported Wed, Jul 29 · next print Tue, Oct 27

What Robinhood's Q3 Earnings Have to Show After 19% Decline

Thomas Richmond

Robinhood reports Q3 earnings tonight, with analysts expecting $1.43 billion in revenue and $0.55 in EPS.

Shares have fallen 19.22% over the past month, despite record customer deposits, Gold subscribers, and platform assets.

Investors will be watching whether prediction markets, Agentic Trading, and Trump Accounts can offset an expected 38% decline in crypto revenue.

Strong results could reinforce management’s ambition to grow the business tenfold over the next decade.

View the full live blog (10 updates) →