Boeing Craters Again, Falling Beyond 20% Year-to-Date: Several Analysts Predict 80% Returns From Here
Boeing just shed over 10% in a single session while its aerospace peers held firm and raised guidance. Now 24 of 28 analysts refuse to walk away, and the gap between their targets and the current price has never been…
Boeing (NYSE:BA | BA Price Prediction) is now priced at $168.14. Wall Street’s average price target is $267.22, pointing to potential gains of roughly 58.9%.
Boeing builds the 737 MAX, 787 and 777X, and it also runs large defense and services businesses. After years of quality problems, investors want proof that the recovery will start producing cash. What justifies patience is a record $745B backlog. The selloff points to how long that patience may need to last.
Slower 737 Ramp Knocks Boeing Down 10.71% in One Session
The biggest problem was the 737 schedule. Boeing’s chief executive said “it is taking us longer than we had expected to demonstrate performance at rate 47,” and he now expects stability to take into next year. The plan for 52 jets per month moved to the back half of 2027, and deliveries will come in shy of the 500 delivery target. The stock fell 10.71% on the day. Reuters linked the drop to the slower production and a weaker free cash flow outlook.
The numbers added to the damage. The core loss came in at $0.34 per share, larger than the $0.20 loss analysts expected. That makes two straight EPS misses. Revenue of $24.19B was below expectations, and Commercial Airplanes posted an operating margin of negative 6.5%. Management guided to free cash flow of about $2 billion in 2026 and $3 billion in 2027.
The selling was specific to Boeing. On the same day, the S&P 500 rose 0.57%.
24 of 28 Analysts Still Back the Recovery
Of the 28 analysts covered, 6 rate Boeing Strong Buy, 18 give it a Buy and 4 assign it a Hold. None rate it Sell. The most recent named move was positive. Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth raised his target from $295 to $305 and repeated Buy. That Street-high target points to potential gains of roughly 81.4%. Barclays is close behind after starting coverage with a $300.00 target.
The bull case has three parts: higher 737 and 787 delivery rates, free cash flow recovery that pays down debt, and a backlog that gives nearly a decade of revenue visibility. Management’s own plan lays out the milestones. It calls for free cash flow of about $6 billion in 2028 and $10 billion in 2029, plus roughly breakeven Commercial Airplanes margins in early 2028.
Defense helps too. Boeing won the Navy’s F/A-XX fighter, a seven-year PAC-3 seeker contract and 22 additional F-15EX aircraft. Management now projects defense revenue growth at middle single digit or higher.
The 2027 cash plan carries risk: it assumes 777X certification by mid-year 2027, and Boeing still lacks full approval for the flight test program. Price targets are estimates, and they could come down as analysts factor in the slower ramp.
Boeing Fell Alone While Engine and Defense Peers Held Up
The rest of the group held up while Boeing sold off. Its peers beat expectations and raised guidance.
GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE) is down 2.96% year to date and 8.86% over the past month. The stock sits at $297.71 versus a $378.43 target, suggesting 27.1% upside. Analysts count 3 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 3 Hold and 1 Strong Sell. GE raised its 2026 guidance across the board.
RTX (NYSE:RTX) is up 7.25% year to date. The stock is priced at $194.56 versus a $229.17 target, pointing to 17.8% upside. Analysts assign 5 Strong Buy ratings, 11 Buy ratings and 7 Hold ratings, and RTX has raised its outlook for the third time.
Boeing’s projected gain from analyst targets is the biggest among these stocks by a wide margin. That shows how far the stock has fallen and the execution risk that comes with it.
Down 22.56% While the S&P 500 Gained 12.87%
At $168.14, Boeing has 58.9% upside to the $267.22 average target set by 28 analysts. The stock has lost 11.72% in a week and 15.11% in a month.
Boeing is down 22.56% so far this year, and the S&P 500 is up 12.87%. Over the past year, Boeing has fallen 24.6% while the index returned 12.33%. On the plus side, Boeing has $20.7 billion in cash and marketable securities. On the minus side, it carries $45.9B of debt.
Boeing’s Discount Hinges on a Multi-Year Recovery
Boeing deserves a closer look here if the 737 holds steady at 47 per month early next year, the 777-9 is certified by mid-2027 and cash flow covered toward $6 billion in 2028. If those three things happen, the backlog and defense wins give analysts a clear path to the average target. But the stock becomes a value trap if wing and fuselage bottlenecks drag on, the 777X slips again and Commercial Airplanes margins stay negative past 2028. With $45.9B of debt, Boeing has little room for another reset.
I lean toward projects the recovery case as intact. Contracted demand looks solid, and this selloff came from a timing problem. Still, the cash flow outlook has slipped once already, so the stock will probably need to show stable rate 47 output before it closes much of the gap.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
