Amazon reports Q3 earnings tonight, and investors will be watching whether its massive AI investments are finally translating into stronger growth.
AWS grew 36.7% last quarter, and another acceleration would mark six consecutive quarters of improving growth. That’s especially important as Amazon’s cash capital expenditures reached $53.1 billion in Q2, while trailing free cash flow fell to negative $7.6 billion.
Management guided for $197 billion to $202 billion in revenue, representing 9% to 12% growth, with Prime Day shifting into Q2.
With Amazon valued at approximately $2.66 trillion, tonight’s results could determine whether investors continue rewarding its aggressive AI spending or start questioning when those investments will generate meaningful free cash flow.
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Q3 2026
4:05pm ET
AWS revenue grew 39% to $45.98 billion, its fastest in nearly five years, with Jassy projecting over 40% growth in both 2027 and 2028. Amazon is holding 2026 capital spending at roughly $220 billion to feed it, while EPS and revenue came in narrowly missing expectations.
Thesis check
4:10pm ET
The AWS acceleration analysts pressed for on every recent call showed up, and the over-40% growth projection for 2027 and 2028 is what tips this today, even with a double miss and the stock down 4.2%. The thesis breaks if the $220 billion capex year arrives without AWS holding that growth rate.
Amazon just reported Q3 earnings, with shares initially down 8% following the report. Here are the key numbers:
Quick Read:
Amazon shares are falling sharply as investors digest the disappointing results.
Technical setup
3:25pm ET
At $244.99, Amazon sits right on its 200-day average of $243.39 and below the 50-day at $254.70, so tonight's reaction has a clean line in the sand. A drop through $243.39 puts the $233.59 support shelf in play, while a positive response needs to reclaim $254.70 before $259.56 resistance comes into view.
Options positioning
3:15pm ET
A 0.59 put/call ratio into tonight's report says traders are leaning call-heavy, with 12,075 calls stacked at the 255 strike against 3,328 puts, and 136.1% ATM implied volatility on Friday-expiry contracts shows how wide the expected swing is. Read directly, that is optimism ahead of the AWS numbers. Read the other way, lopsided call positioning leaves little cushion if the quarter disappoints.
1.2k / 2.3k
7.1k / 7.9k
1.3k / 6k
3.3k / 12.1k
549 / 2.5k
2.2k / 9k
Prediction markets
3:20pm ET
Traders on Polymarket are pricing less than a one-in-three chance that Amazon beats on GAAP EPS tonight, a sharply skeptical read for a company sitting on a $2.6 trillion market cap. Volume is thin, so treat it as a sentiment gauge, but the crowd clearly expects the AI spending load to show up in the bottom line.
Regular session
3:00pm ET
$249$246$243
A 3.70% slide to $245.19 takes roughly $100 billion off a $2.6 trillion market cap, and Q3 results land tonight after the bell. Rare size for a mega-cap this liquid, so keep an eye on the stock into the report.
Call preview · Q3 2026
3:05pm ET
Analysts have pressed management on the AWS capacity and CapEx cycle on all four of the last four calls, and it is the thread most likely to set tonight's reaction after the close. Bedrock and model partnerships have been just as persistent, so the answer on whether capacity is arriving fast enough to keep AWS growth climbing will matter more than the headline numbers.
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