Live Live update #2

Analysts’ Top Questions for Amazon Ahead of Q3 Earnings Tonight

From live coverage: Live: Will Amazon Crush Q3 Earnings Tonight After the Bell?
AMZN
Amazon

Call preview · Q3 2026


Thu, Oct 29
Earnings call · after close

Analysts have pressed management on the AWS capacity and CapEx cycle on all four of the last four calls, and it is the thread most likely to set tonight's reaction after the close. Bedrock and model partnerships have been just as persistent, so the answer on whether capacity is arriving fast enough to keep AWS growth climbing will matter more than the headline numbers.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
  • AWS capacity & CapEx cycle
  • Bedrock & model partnerships
  • Custom silicon & Trainium adoption
  • Agentic commerce & Rufus
  • Grocery strategy & retail efficiency

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Amazon Q3 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Amazon’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Amazon's Q3 Earnings at a Glance

Thomas Richmond
AMZN
Amazon

Q3 2026

4:05pm ET

EPS
$1.89
est $1.96
-3.5%

Revenue
$201.94B
est $202.20B
-0.1%

AWS revenue grew 39% to $45.98 billion, its fastest in nearly five years, with Jassy projecting over 40% growth in both 2027 and 2028. Amazon is holding 2026 capital spending at roughly $220 billion to feed it, while EPS and revenue came in narrowly missing expectations.

Amazon's Bull vs Bear Case After Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
AMZN
Amazon

Thesis check

4:10pm ET

strengthening$243.79 -4.2% today
“Amazon's AI capex spree pays off through AWS reacceleration”

Bull case
  • AWS revenue up 39% to $45.98 billion with $17.77 billion in segment operating income
  • Jassy guiding AWS growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028 off a $184 billion run rate
  • Company-wide operating margin of 13.9%, its highest ever
  • North America operating income nearly doubled to $8.72 billion from $4.79 billion
Bear case
  • EPS of 1.89 and revenue of $201.94 billion both missed estimates
  • Trailing twelve-month free cash outflow of $42.4 billion with 2026 capex near $220 billion
  • Rising debt and interest expense as the build-out scales
  • Memory chip supply volatility threatens capacity timing

The AWS acceleration analysts pressed for on every recent call showed up, and the over-40% growth projection for 2027 and 2028 is what tips this today, even with a double miss and the stock down 4.2%. The thesis breaks if the $220 billion capex year arrives without AWS holding that growth rate.

Amazon Q3 Earnings Are Out - Stock Plunges 11% on Double Miss

Thomas Richmond

Amazon just reported Q3 earnings, with shares initially down 8% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $201.94B vs. $202.26B expected
  • EPS: $1.89 vs. $1.96 expected

Quick Read:

  • Double Miss: Amazon missed revenue expectations slightly, while EPS fell approximately 4% short of Wall Street estimates.
  • Growth Continues, But Profits Slip: Revenue increased 12% year over year, while EPS declined 3%, raising questions about profitability as Amazon continues investing heavily in AI infrastructure.

Amazon shares are falling sharply as investors digest the disappointing results.

Amazon's Technical Setup Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
AMZN
Amazon

Technical setup

3:25pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Thu, Oct 29
  • R2$265.75+8.5%
  • R1$259.56+5.9%
  • Now$244.99
  • S1$233.59-4.7%
  • S2$225.86-7.8%
50-day avg
$254.70-3.8% below
200-day avg
$243.39+0.7% above
52-week range
$196.00 – $287.20

At $244.99, Amazon sits right on its 200-day average of $243.39 and below the 50-day at $254.70, so tonight's reaction has a clean line in the sand. A drop through $243.39 puts the $233.59 support shelf in play, while a positive response needs to reclaim $254.70 before $259.56 resistance comes into view.

Amazon Traders Are Bullish With 0.59 Put/Call Ratio

Thomas Richmond
AMZN
Amazon

Options positioning

3:15pm ET

Put/call 0.59Calls dominant
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
136.1%
Expiry
Fri, Oct 30chain as of Wed, Oct 28

A 0.59 put/call ratio into tonight's report says traders are leaning call-heavy, with 12,075 calls stacked at the 255 strike against 3,328 puts, and 136.1% ATM implied volatility on Friday-expiry contracts shows how wide the expected swing is. Read directly, that is optimism ahead of the AWS numbers. Read the other way, lopsided call positioning leaves little cushion if the quarter disappoints.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $247.5

    1.2k / 2.3k

  • $250

    7.1k / 7.9k

  • $252.5

    1.3k / 6k

  • $255

    3.3k / 12.1k

  • $257.5

    549 / 2.5k

  • $260

    2.2k / 9k

Polymarket: 33% Odds Amazon Beats Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
AMZN
Amazon

Prediction markets

3:20pm ET

Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?
33%Yes
Polymarket · $7k traded · resolves Thu, Oct 29

Traders on Polymarket are pricing less than a one-in-three chance that Amazon beats on GAAP EPS tonight, a sharply skeptical read for a company sitting on a $2.6 trillion market cap. Volume is thin, so treat it as a sentiment gauge, but the crowd clearly expects the AI spending load to show up in the bottom line.

Amazon Falls 3.7% Today: Will Tonight's Earnings Disappoint?

Thomas Richmond
AMZN
Amazon

Regular session

3:00pm ET

$245.19
-3.70%
open $254.60

$249$246$243

A 3.70% slide to $245.19 takes roughly $100 billion off a $2.6 trillion market cap, and Q3 results land tonight after the bell. Rare size for a mega-cap this liquid, so keep an eye on the stock into the report.

Amazon's $53 Billion AI Spending Spree Faces a Massive Test Tonight

Thomas Richmond

Amazon reports Q3 earnings tonight, and investors will be watching whether its massive AI investments are finally translating into stronger growth.

AWS grew 36.7% last quarter, and another acceleration would mark six consecutive quarters of improving growth. That’s especially important as Amazon’s cash capital expenditures reached $53.1 billion in Q2, while trailing free cash flow fell to negative $7.6 billion.

Management guided for $197 billion to $202 billion in revenue, representing 9% to 12% growth, with Prime Day shifting into Q2.

With Amazon valued at approximately $2.66 trillion, tonight’s results could determine whether investors continue rewarding its aggressive AI spending or start questioning when those investments will generate meaningful free cash flow.

View the full live blog (10 updates) →