Upstart Drops 5% to Near 52-Week Low Ahead of Earnings; Affirm Advances 5%, SoFi Gains 4%
Upstart slides toward a 52-week low the day before its earnings report while rivals Affirm and SoFi surge, and its history of post-earnings selloffs raises the question of whether tomorrow's results can finally break the pattern.
A day before its third-quarter report, Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) is slipping toward the bottom of its 52-week range while two of its closest fintech rivals rally. Upstart stock is at $21.88, down 5% in morning trading. The decline leaves the stock down 50% year to date (YTD), with a 52-week range running from $21.66 to $52.10.
Pre-earnings anxiety looks like the most likely reason for the selling, with Upstart expected to report Q3 2026 results on November 3. History explains the nerves, since Upstart stock fell on the release day after each of its last seven listed earnings reports, whether results beat or missed estimates.
Affirm and SoFi Rally While Upstart Slides
The contrast with its peers makes Upstart’s weakness look stock-specific. Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM | AFRM Price Prediction) stock is at $77.35, up 5%. Meanwhile, SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock is at $17.44, up 4%.
SoFi’s gains build on its October 27 report, when the company’s revenue of $1.39 billion beat estimates and its loan originations hit a record $16.93 billion. Management raised SoFi’s full-year 2026 guidance to $0.61 in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and introduced a 2027 outlook of $0.90, which it described as well ahead of analyst estimates.
Cheaper long-term borrowing costs tend to favor rate-sensitive lenders such as Affirm and SoFi. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.98% on October 29 from 5.05% a session earlier, which suggests Upstart’s upcoming report may be the main source of its weakness.
How Upstart’s Business Model Differs From Its Peers
Upstart runs an AI-powered lending marketplace that matches consumers with partner banks and credit unions, which fund the loans its models approve. The company leans on those partners and on capital markets, including securitizations and warehouse facilities, and it still holds some loans on its own balance sheet. CEO Paul Gu said in Upstart’s Q1 2026 report that the company had applied for a national bank charter, and a charter could have implications for its funding costs.
SoFi operates differently, with a bank charter that lets it gather deposits and originate loans directly. Affirm centers on buy now, pay later (BNPL) payments at merchant checkout, through wallet partners and with its own Affirm Card, earning merchant fees alongside interest income and gains on loan sales. Funding for Affirm comes through warehouse lines, asset-backed securities and forward flow agreements, while SoFi’s deposit base gives it a steadier source of capital.
Upstart’s Bull and Bear Cases Ahead of Its Report
Upstart’s Q2 2026 report from August 4 gives bulls something to point to. The company’s revenue rose 41.8% year over year (YoY) to $364.71 million, and its loan originations climbed 50% to $4.23 billion. On the funding side, Upstart announced a $4 billion loan purchase agreement with Castlelake-managed funds, and it returned to profitability under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
Bears focus on costs and leverage. Upstart’s GAAP diluted EPS of $0.16 missed the $0.55 estimate as operating expenses swelled, and the company’s contribution margin contracted to 55% from 58% YoY. Loans on Upstart’s balance sheet carried a fair value of $1.06 billion, its debt rose to $2 billion, and its secured auto and home equity products still ran at a contribution margin of negative 35%. A pending securities class action tied to an earlier AI model controversy adds another concern.
What Upstart’s Third-Quarter Report Has to Prove
Upstart’s full-year 2026 outlook calls for $1.4 billion in total revenue and $294 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). Investors will now watch whether management confirms both targets, since a cut could push the stock to fresh lows.
A confirmation paired with steady credit trends could fell the funding worries that have weighed on Upstart this year. Investors may want to stay cautious until Upstart’s guidance update resolves.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
