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Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Just Produced a Monster Quarter. Here’s the Bigger Question.

Strategy Inc. just posted one of the most jaw-dropping earnings beats in recent memory, yet the stock is falling and bitcoin keeps sliding further from its peak. Whether the company's capital-raising machine can survive rising preferred dividends and dilution is…

By Vandita Jadeja
Published November 3, 2026, 10:33am ET · 3 min read

Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.

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Strategy's Bitcoin Bet Just Produced a Monster Quarter. Here's the Bigger Question.
© 24/7 Wall St.

The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction) is $272.05. That means 92.1% upside from the $141.62 close. Our model gives the stock a buy rating at moderate confidence of 50%.

An infographic titled 'Strategy Inc. (MSTR) 12-Month Price Prediction' on a dark background with green accents. The top section, 'THE CALL', shows the Current Price of $141.62 leading to a Target Price of $272.05, indicating a +92.1% Upside with a 'BUY' recommendation and Moderate Confidence: 50%. The 'METHODOLOGY: HOW WE GOT THERE' section illustrates a flow from Trailing P/E $0 and Forward P/E $0 to Analyst Consensus $239.27, then Weighted Base $239.27. 'OUR ADJUSTMENTS (247FACTOR: 1.137)' details factors like positive Sector Momentum (Tech), positive Analyst Consensus (94% Bullish), negative Earnings Growth (Decline), negative Volatility (Beta 3.57), and negative Large-Cap Dampener, leading to a Final Target of $272.05. The 'BULL CASE ($301.96) - What Could Go Right' lists points: Bitcoin Holdings: 848,517 BTC, USD Assets: $5.07B (3.4 Years Coverage), Digital Credit Market Share: 84% of ~$16B, Strong Analyst Coverage (13 Buy, 2 Strong Buy). The 'BEAR CASE ($212.52) - What Could Go Wrong' lists points: Negative BTC Yield: -3.7%, Rising Preferred Dividends: $419.6M, Bitcoin Sales: $431.8M YTD, CFO Transition Risk. The 'THE BOTTOM LINE' reiterates 'BUY · Target $272.05 (+92.1%)' and a concluding statement. The 24/7 Wall St. logo appears at the top and bottom.
24/7 Wall St.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Metric Value
Current Price $141.62
Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $272.05
Upside/Downside 92.1%
Recommendation BUY
Confidence Level 50%

MSTR price target

Shares were indicated at $132.67 premarket, down 6.32%, after a record quarter. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) trades at $77,669, which is 38.4% below its all-time high. Per-share bitcoin growth now has to keep pace with dilution and rising preferred dividends.

A $44.75 EPS Quarter Arrives as Bitcoin Cools

Strategy Inc. posted GAAP diluted EPS of $44.75, beating the $17.98 consensus, on a $20.91B digital asset gain as bitcoin rose 43% in the quarter. Revenue of $125.43M missed the $129.36M estimate. The stock rose 51.64% from July 1 through October 29.

It is now down 14.22% over one month and 12.69% year to date, and it trades between a 52-week low of $81.81 and a high of $276.32. Bloomberg described the company’s move to daily preferred payments as a push to jumpstart its funding machine.

MSTR earnings explorer

Why Bulls See $300 and Beyond

The bull scenario reaches $301.96. Holdings stand at 848,517 BTC. USD Assets of $5.07B cover 3.4 years of obligations, and Strategy Inc. controls 84% of a $16B Digital Credit market. Interest income rose to $47.1M from $0.1M.

The CEO called daily dividends “a natural step toward the tokenized, 24/7/365 financial system.” Of the analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy, 2 Strong Buy and 1 Hold.

MSTR analyst ratings

Dilution and Dividends Will Decide the Next Leg

The bear case is $212.52. BTC Yield is -3.7% year to date, a BTC Gain of -24,947 BTC. Preferred dividends rose to $419.6 million from $139.9 million, and Strategy Inc. sold about $431.8M of bitcoin.

A CFO transition adds risk. Bulls would counter that much of that capital went to $2.04B of STRC buybacks at an average of $97.39. Those repurchases were a deliberate move to repair the credit position.

How Strategy Inc. Compares to Coinbase and MARA

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) goes here because its GAAP results also inflate in crypto rallies. Its Q3 EPS of $2.51 included $715 million of crypto gains, and adjusted net income was only $77.7 million. At a $35.78B market cap, Coinbase is smaller than Strategy Inc.’s $57.2B.

MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) is a direct bitcoin-holder contrast. It holds 35,577 BTC and trades at 0.80x book, versus 1.94x for Strategy Inc. The market pays a premium for Strategy Inc.’s capital-raising machine. Even so, a 2x book multiple keeps our target reasonable relative to peers.

Our Verdict: A Higher-Beta Way to Own Bitcoin

The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $272.05, with a buy rating at 50% confidence. The ability to raise capital is the key factor.

The upside case strengthens if bitcoin stabilizes and BTC Yield turns positive. The downside risk increases if dividends keep driving bitcoin sales. At current levels, our model projects upside that outweighs the volatility.

MSTR price scenario

Assuming current trends hold, here is where the 24/7 Wall St. price target model projects the stock could trade.

Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St.
2026 $149.42
2027 $272.05
2028 $360.62
2029 $478.02
2030 $633.64

These projections assume Strategy Inc. keeps executing its plan. A prolonged bitcoin downturn or a shutdown of preferred funding markets could drove results well below this path.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

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