XRP Is Down 22% in 30 Days. Will XRP Go Back Up Before the End of November?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has dropped 20.8% over the past 30 days, falling from a high of $1.41 on October 11, 2026, to a low of $1.11 on November 8. Currently, it trades at $1.11, down 4.4% over the past 24 hours and 11.5% for the week, prompting holders to wonder whether XRP will recover before the month’s end.

The decline has intensified in November. XRP has lost 11.2% since closing at $1.25 on October 31 and currently trades 69.6% below its all-time high of $3.65, reached on July 17, 2025. While we previously looked at XRP’s potential recovery by the end of 2026, the urgency has increased as November approaches. So, will XRP go back up before the month concludes, and by how much?

XRP Needs a 12.7% Increase Just to Break Even for November

“Going back up” can mean different things for XRP, and each interpretation sets a different expectation. The simplest recovery would be a rebound off the recent low, requiring XRP to rise 6.3% to close above $1.18, which Bitrue Research Institute identifies as a sign of recovery. A larger 12.7% climb would help XRP surpass its October 31 close, reversing November’s losses.

Moving averages provide a higher benchmark. A moving average is calculated by averaging closing prices over a set number of days, and traders use it to identify trends. Currently, XRP’s 20-day moving average is $1.27, which is 14.4% above the current price, and the 50-day average is $1.37, requiring a 23.4% rally. Since XRP is trading below both averages, sellers appear to have the upper hand in both timeframes.

XRP’s market cap, calculated by multiplying the number of tokens in circulation by the price, stands at about $70.2 billion, making it the fifth-largest cryptocurrency. This is only about $60 million more than USD Coin’s market cap of $70.1 billion. At its closing price on October 31, XRP was valued at $79.4 billion, meaning it needs to recover about $9.2 billion to get back to that level.

XRP Has Finished Lower in 3 of the Last 5 Novembers

Historically, XRP has struggled to recover quickly in November. A review of the past five Novembers shows that the token closed the month lower three times. It posted a 10.6% loss in 2021, fell 13.9% in November 2025, and only gained 1% in November 2023.

The standout year was 2024, when XRP skyrocketed by 281.3%, spurred by the U.S. presidential election and Gary Gensler’s announcement on November 21, 2024, about stepping down as SEC Chair. Now that the November 3 midterms have passed, XRP has continued its downward trend.

ETF Activity, Oversold Signals, and RLUSD Offer Hopes for a Rebound

XRP ETF Inflows Have Stalled

U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold XRP let investors own the token through regular brokerage accounts. According to SoSoValue, these funds recorded zero net inflows from November 3 to November 6, following an outflow of about $530,000 on November 2.

While cumulative net inflows amount to $1.81 billion, the funds’ total net assets declined from $1.57 billion on October 21 to $1.34 billion on November 6 as falling prices reduced the value of the XRP they held. The largest daily inflow since mid-October was just $8.4 million on October 29, which wasn’t enough to lift the price.

XRP Appears Oversold, But Recovery Could Take Time

Traders often label a coin as oversold when its price has fallen sharply compared with recent trading patterns. The Bitrue Research Institute found that, historically, XRP traded higher three months after 12 out of 17 oversold signals, with a median gain of 9.1%. This suggests potential recovery may extend into early 2027, rather than materializing by the end of November. In the short term, a close above $1.18 remains a crucial marker.

RLUSD Is Growing While XRP Ledger Credit Shrinks

RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin pegged to $1, has seen its market cap grow by $228.8 million over the past month. In contrast, tokenized credit on the XRP Ledger, meaning loans issued as tokens on XRP’s blockchain, fell $207.4 million. With network activity moving in both directions, traders may be hesitant to pursue XRP before the end of the month, and the longer-term demand drivers play out over a longer stretch.

Will XRP Go Back Up Before November Ends?

We believe XRP has a fair chance of bouncing back from its recent low, but only a slim chance of finishing November above the October 31 close of $1.25. First, XRP needs a daily close above $1.18. After that, daily ETF inflows need to beat the $8.4 million of October 29. Only then can XRP hope to recover to $1.25 and eventually reach the $1.27 20-day average, which we’ve analyzed previously.

If XRP fails to close above $1.18 and ETF flows remain flat or negative, another disappointing November seems probable. In that case, sellers may target the 90-day low of $0.99 reached on August 16, which is 10.8% below the current price. So yes, XRP may rebound off its low before the end of the month, but a full recovery of November’s 11.2% loss seems unlikely unless it surpasses $1.27 before November 30.

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