There is a line that traces from people who lost jobs due to COVID-19 to those who received government aid, to those who did not get new jobs, to the expiration of aid, to the end of a moratorium on evictions from their homes. That line of events has reached its conclusion. The Centers for Disease Control eviction control ends at the close of the year. Soon, millions of people can be legally evicted from where they live. In some states, the situation is much worse than in others.
The National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) has just published a study, “Cost of COVID-19 EVICTIONS”. One of the points of the study is to look at a range of academic data to determine how many people, in this case who are renters, could lose their homes in the next few months. Its researchers looked at information from consultancy Stout Risius Ross, data from the Federal Reserve, and from the Census Household Pulse Survey. With information from each, the NLIHC came up with a national eviction total which showed “6.7 million renter households will be unable to pay their rent and at risk of eviction if rent payments remain consistent among renters with no or slight confidence in their ability to pay rent.” Granted, the number could be called into question because of the number of qualifications in the calculations.
One conclusion from the study is correct. People who are evicted likely have poor enough financial circumstances that they will need government aid. The figure could be well above $100 billion, and perhaps much more. The problems eviction can cause include “emergency shelter, inpatient medical care, emergency medical care, foster care, and juvenile delinquency.”
And, those evicted will cease to be consumers, almost certainly. This, in turn, is a drag on the American economy.
The NLIHC had to make a decision as to which information to use from a number of sources. Their figures could be wrong, although they are likely to be directionally correct.
On top of their national estimates, they presented a range of evictions based on both cost and eviction numbers. Three measurements were presented. The first was based on a Federal Reserve model. The other two were based on models from Stout.
24/7 Wall St. took the lowest numbers which were from the Federal Reserve model. These are the number of households at risk for eviction, based on that data:
District of Columbia