| Prior FY25 Est. | Post-Q2 Guide/Implied | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.86B | >$2.87B+ |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $1.78 | Likely unchanged |
Severe selloff despite headline beats points to guidance disappointment or margin skepticism.
Kokai innovation strong, but not enough to offset operating leverage concerns.
EBITDA guide too light vs. whisper expectations.
Margins falling, despite rising platform adoption.
Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 39% (vs. 41% YoY)
CFO transition: Alex Kayyal named incoming CFO (effective Aug 21)
New AI creative partnerships with Rembrand, Nova, Bunny Studio
Expanded OpenPath and retail integrations (Instacart, Visa, NIQ)
$261M in stock buybacks, but share count remains steady
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $694M | $585M | +18.6% |
| GAAP EPS | $0.18 | $0.17 | +5.9% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.41 | $0.39 | +5.1% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $271M | $242M | +12.0% |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 39% | 41% | –200 bps |
| Customer Retention | >95% | >95% | Unchanged |
Slower margin expansion and light sequential EBITDA growth signal limited operating leverage, despite top-line strength.
The revenue guide implies 3.3% QoQ growth and solid execution into H2, which supports analyst confidence in Kokai’s AI leverage and continued CTV/retail media tailwinds.
| Metric | Q3 2025 Guide | Q2 Implied / Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ≥ $717M | $694M | 📈 Raised |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$277M | $271M | 📈 Raised |
“Kokai is helping advertisers drive better results by integrating more data into every decision, using AI as a co-pilot, and unlocking the full potential of first-party data… we’re delivering exceptional value to our clients and helping to strengthen the open internet.”
-Jeff Green CEO
Jeff Green’s tone was confident and focused on long-term AI differentiation. However, the market’s severe reaction suggests near-term investor priorities are shifting toward profit scalability, not just innovation.
Despite a revenue beat and in-line EPS, TTD shares plunged 25% AH, likely due to concerns about margin compression, modest EBITDA growth, and a light Q3 guide vs. whisper expectations. With adjusted EBITDA margins falling to 39% and macro headwinds weighing on ad budgets, investors may be reassessing the pace of operating leverage and AI monetization through Kokai.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $694M | $686.03M | ✅ Beat |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.41 | $0.41 | ✅ In Line |
TTD’s post-earnings performance has been highly polarized. Q1 and Q2 2024 triggered strong multi-day rallies, while the Q4 print resulted in a massive drawdown despite an EPS beat — likely due to soft guidance. With a mean 14-day swing of ±23.74%, the stock consistently exhibits major price volatility around earnings events.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | +24.2% | +25.82% | +37.27% | +31.65% |
| Q4 2024 | +9.8% | –31.85% | –36.15% | –39.75% |
| Q3 2024 | +6.7% | +0.26% | +0.86% | +2.04% |
| Q2 2024 | +17.6% | +16.95% | +18.36% | +21.51% |
Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.
Trade Desk (Nasdaq: TTD | TTD Price Prediction) is set to report Q2 2025 earnings after the close today, with the call scheduled for 5:00 PM ET. With the digital advertising market stabilizing, investors are looking for signals that TTD can sustain double-digit growth and continue to take share amid growing CTV and retail media adoption.
We’ll be updating this live blog with news and analysis right after TTD’s earnings hit the newswires. To receive updates, all you have to do is leave this page open, and updates will post automatically.
Revenue: $686.03 million
EPS (Normalized): $0.41
Full-Year 2025:
Revenue: $2.86 billion
EPS: $1.78
Full-Year 2026:
Revenue: $3.39 billion
EPS: $2.14
Q2 revenue is projected to rise +17.4% YoY (vs. $584.55M last year), while EPS is up just +5.1% YoY — suggesting limited operating leverage despite scale
Kokai rollout and AI performance gains
Management noted that roughly two-thirds of clients have now adopted Kokai, and those using it are seeing material improvements in campaign performance — including 24% lower cost per conversion and 20% lower cost per acquisition. Analysts will watch for further adoption progress and how the platform’s AI tooling (via Koa) unlocks share in lower-funnel budgets.
Retail media and Walmart DSP traction
Retail media remains a top strategic vertical for TTD, and the company highlighted continued momentum with its Walmart partnership. Investors will look for updated commentary on spend volumes and differentiation versus Amazon and traditional retail media networks.
OpenPath and Sincera integration
OpenPath adoption is yielding meaningful lift in fill rates and revenue for publishers, while the integration of Sincera metadata across the platform is improving transparency in the supply chain. Watch for usage metrics or KPIs that indicate these tools are scaling across verticals and contributing to spend efficiency.
CTV demand and competitive positioning vs. Amazon
CEO Jeff Green reaffirmed that CTV is “the kingpin of the open Internet,” and asserted that TTD is gaining share in a competitive environment that includes Amazon’s DSP. Commentary on share gains, content owner partnerships, and ad supply dynamics in CTV will be critical.
Macro pressure and brand sentiment into H2
Management noted increased volatility among large brand advertisers due to macro uncertainty, but reaffirmed their ability to “grab land” even in downturns. Investors will be focused on any updated outlook for Q3 and whether the current guide embeds conservatism.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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