Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) is graduating from a flight-test story to a revenue story. The Blade acquisition pushed Q4 2025 revenue to $30.84 million, management is guiding $105 million to $115 million for full-year 2026, and a JFK-to-Manhattan eVTOL flight put the brand in front of every commuter in the country.
Yet shares sit at $10, down 24.24% year to date. Can JOBY trade at $20 by 2028?
What’s Holding Joby Back
Shares are stuck because of what investors are paying for unprofitable growth. Joby trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 122x with a beta of 2.67, punished whenever rate expectations shift. Shares are flat over the last month at 0%, with a recent 20% drop in June tied to a strong jobs report and renewed Fed tightening concerns.
Insider selling has weighed on sentiment. Director Paul Sciarra sold 416,666 shares at $12.02, and CFO Rodrigo Brumana followed with a $897,000 sale via a 10b5-1 plan. Both were pre-scheduled, but the optics hurt a stock already 47% below its 52-week high.
Wall Street Sees 11% Upside. Our Model Says 16%.
Consensus target is $11.12, with 1 strong buy, 2 buys, 5 holds, 2 sells, and 1 strong sell. Our base-case model lands at $11.62 for a 16.2% upside, with a moderate 0.5 confidence score mirroring the analyst split of 27% bullish, 27% bearish, 45% neutral.
Consensus is too anchored on Joby being pre-revenue. The bull case points to $15.05 within twelve months and $25.75 over five years. Wall Street has not repriced for FAA certification, and that is the asymmetry worth watching.
The Path to $20 Per Share
Reaching $20 from $10 requires a gain of 100%. With forward EPS of -$1.20, a price of $20 implies a forward P/E of -17x. The negative figure shows why our model excludes EPS and leans on analyst target weighting and the 247Factor of 1.045. For JOBY, price-to-sales is where the bull case has room.
If Joby hits a credible 2028 revenue ramp toward the $458 million projection being modeled post-FAA approval, the current 122x sales multiple compresses sharply at $20.
Three catalysts are in motion: the first point-to-point electric air taxi flight from JFK to Manhattan, selection for commercial operations in 11 states, and a Dubai launch with vertiports at the airport, Palm Jumeirah, and Dubai Mall.
CEO JoeBen Bevirt told investors, “2026 will mark a key inflection point for Joby”, and ARK Invest backed that view with a 119,000-share purchase after the FAA milestone. The primary risk is simple: any FAA Type Certification slip beyond 2026 resets the bull thesis.
Is $20 Realistic?
Joby has no earnings power yet, which is the entire problem and opportunity. The stock sits at $10, against a 52-week range of $7.75 to $20.95, and a 50-day moving average of $9.79. Five-year total return is essentially flat at 0.4%.
The market has paid Joby for the option rather than the operating business. If Dubai service launches and the Dayton plant ramps to 4 aircraft per month in 2027, the option converts into cash flow.
Hitting $20 by 2028 requires a 100% gain, and on a beta of 2.67 that is achievable.
Three things must go right: FAA Type Certification by 2026, passenger revenue from Dubai and U.S. eIPP sites in 2027, and Dayton production hitting 4 aircraft per month on schedule. A certification delay forcing another dilutive capital raise derails it.
I view $20 as a stretch target with real catalysts behind it. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but the blueprint for Joby reaching $20 in 2028 is clear.
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