Prediction: The Next Big Aviation Revolution Could Start With Joby

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) is $11.37 over the next 12 months. With shares at $6.13 this morning, that points to about 85% upside. The model rates Joby a buy with moderate confidence.

Joby is getting close to its first commercial passenger flights, and the stock trades near its 52-week low. That gap between progress and price is the opportunity. Over the next year, I’m following certification milestones and how fast the fleet grows.

Texas Air Taxi Flights Take Off While Shares Sit Near Lows

The stock is down 4.81% over the past week, 12.18% over the past month and 53.56% year to date. Shares trade about 69% below their $19.98 52-week high and just 3% above the $5.93 low. The drop came even as the business moved forward.

Joby flew a five-day demonstration campaign across Dallas-Fort Worth from Sep 10-14. The flights ran under the federal eIPP program, a White House-backed effort that lets companies start early operations before full FAA certification.

In Q2, revenue came in at $38.64 million, well ahead of the $30.38 million estimate. EPS of -$0.25 missed expectations of -$0.2345. Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $115 million to $125 million.

Why Bulls See $14.55 Within Reach

Our bull case lands at $14.55. Management says eIPP creates the opportunity to “monetize every single aircraft that comes off our production for the foreseeable future.” Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM)’s $250 million direct investment is expected to close later in 2026 or early next year.

Blade Air Mobility (NASDAQ:BLDE) seats sold rose more than 50% year over year, and management said aircraft availability, rather than demand, now limits many routes.

Liquidity of about $2.3 billion pays for the push to double output from 2 to 4 aircraft per month in 2027. On the Street, one strong buy and two buy ratings back that view.

Cash Burn and Dilution Could Stall the Rebound

The bear case stands at $8.52. Joby expects to use $385 million to $415 million in cash in the second half of 2026. Certification testing is only 20% Joby / 10% FAA complete in Stage 4, and repeated capital raises keep diluting shareholders.

Analysts include two sell and one strong sell ratings. For context, the Q2 net loss of $245 million included a $108 million non-cash warrant revaluation, so the headline loss overstates the underlying operating decline.

Is Joby Cheaper Than Archer and EHang?

Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) is Joby’s closest US eVTOL rival. It trades at 564.69 times trailing sales, compared with about 53 times for Joby, since Blade gives Joby real revenue.

EHang (NASDAQ:EH) already sells autonomous aircraft. It trades at 0.863 times sales, but quarterly revenue fell 47.1% year over year. Both peers carry analyst targets far above where they trade, which makes our target look reasonable next to the group.

A 52-Week Low Price for a Company Near Commercial Launch

Joby’s 24/7 Wall St. price target of $11.37 comes with a buy rating and 50% confidence. What tips the scale for me is that even the bear scenario stands above today’s price.

I’d lean in if eIPP passenger flights and Stage 4 progress keep moving on schedule. I’d wait for more evidence if cash burn runs past guidance before certification.

Joby Price Prediction 2026-2030

These projections assume Joby keeps executing on its current plan. Faster certification or delays in scaling production could drive results well above or below these levels.

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