Intel heads into Q3 earnings tonight under pressure, with shares down 20.55% over the past month despite an extraordinary 149.84% year-to-date rally.
Wall Street expects $0.3953 in adjusted EPS, slightly above management’s $0.38 guidance, following 30 upward analyst revisions.
The biggest question is whether Intel can overcome its server CPU supply constraints. Management has been shifting wafer production toward data center chips, but tight Intel 3 capacity continues to limit output.
Meanwhile, Intel plans to spend more than $20 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, with spending expected to climb significantly in 2027.
Analysts have an average price target of $117.71, compared with the stock’s recent $92.19 price. Stronger supply improvements could reignite Intel’s rally, while another disappointing quarter could extend its recent selloff.
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That wraps up our initial coverage of Intel’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!
Q3 2026
4:08pm ET
Data Center and AI revenue jumped 78% to $7.32 billion, carrying the quarter past expectations. The catch is Q4 guidance of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, a sequential step down, with management warning the PC slowdown runs at least through the first half of 2027.
Thesis check
4:15pm ET
The Q4 margin guide of 38.0% is what tipped the report negative: the growth engines are real, and Intel is guiding investors to lower profitability next quarter than it just posted. Capacity remains the swing factor, and supply still cannot meet Xeon demand. A Q4 that lands at the high end with margins holding above the guide would put the thesis back on track.
Intel just reported Q3 earnings, and shares initially plummeted 20% after the report. Here are the key numbers:
Q4 Guidance:
Quick Read:
Despite impressive AI-driven data center demand, investors appear concerned about Intel’s weaker near-term outlook, sending shares plunging 20% after hours.
Last quarter — Q2 2026
3:20pm ET
Intel's July quarter showed the foundry-era cost cuts and stronger-than-expected demand flowing straight to the bottom line, yet the stock declined after the report and stayed there. For tonight, server CPU supply constraints and any read on 2026 PC demand are the key variables.
$131$105$78
Reported Thu, Jul 23 · next print Thu, Oct 29
Options positioning
3:25pm ET
Friday expiry options are priced for chaos, with at-the-money implied volatility at 154.7% on the $96 strike. A 0.79 put/call ratio says traders are leaning call-heavy into the earnings report, and call open interest at $95 and $96 dwarfs the puts there, though crowded one-sided positioning has just as often marked the point where the opposite move begins.
3k / 4.2k
1.7k / 3.3k
5.7k / 11.5k
1.1k / 9.1k
719 / 4.1k
999 / 3.4k
Earnings preview · Q3 2026
3:10pm ET
Intel's last four reports moved the stock 17% to 24% in one direction or the other, so tonight's numbers land on a $482.4 billion company. Foundry progress and the server CPU supply crunch are what decide whether the year-to-date gain holds.
Regular session
3:15pm ET
$94$92$91
A 4.43% drop to $91.30 takes roughly $21 billion off Intel's $481.9 billion market cap in a single session. Keep an eye on whether the $91 handle holds into the close.
Call preview · Q3 2026
3:15pm ET
Six topics have come up on every one of Intel's last four calls, and the one that decides tonight's reaction is capacity: analysts have pressed on supply constraints and capacity expansion in each quarter, and the server CPU shortage flagged earlier this afternoon is where management's answer lands first. Foundry node progress and the capex needed to fund it run a close second, since both feed the gross margin drop-through question that keeps resurfacing.
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