Live Live update #8

Intel Stock’s Bull vs Bear Case After a 17% Plunge

From live coverage: Live: Will Intel's Q3 Earnings Tonight Spark a Recovery After 20% Selloff?
INTC
Intel

Thesis check


weakening$92.07 -3.6% today
“Intel's turnaround compounds as foundry and data center scale faster than the PC business fades”

Bull case
  • Data Center and AI revenue up 78% YoY to $7.32 billion, the fastest in 15 years
  • Intel Foundry revenue up 58% YoY to $6.7 billion
  • GAAP gross margin expanded to 43.0% from 38.2%, non-GAAP at 44.1%
  • Adjusted EPS of 0.52 against 0.3953 expected
Bear case
  • Q4 revenue guided to $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, below the quarter just reported
  • Q4 non-GAAP gross margin guided to 38.0%, a step down from 44.1%
  • PC slowdown expected to run at least through the first half of 2027
  • Supply constraints still capping Xeon shipments amid substrate and memory shortages

The Q4 margin guide of 38.0% is what tipped the report negative: the growth engines are real, and Intel is guiding investors to lower profitability next quarter than it just posted. Capacity remains the swing factor, and supply still cannot meet Xeon demand. A Q4 that lands at the high end with margins holding above the guide would put the thesis back on track.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Intel Q3 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Intel’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Intel's Q3 Earnings at a Glance: 31% EPS Surprise

Thomas Richmond
INTC
Intel

Q3 2026

4:08pm ET

EPS
$0.52
est $0.40
+31.6%

Revenue
$16.51B
est $16.47B
+0.2%

Data Center and AI revenue jumped 78% to $7.32 billion, carrying the quarter past expectations. The catch is Q4 guidance of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, a sequential step down, with management warning the PC slowdown runs at least through the first half of 2027.

Intel Q3 Earnings Are Out - Stock Plunges 20% Despite 78% Data Center Growth

Thomas Richmond

Intel just reported Q3 earnings, and shares initially plummeted 20% after the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $16.5B, up 21% year over year
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.52 vs. $0.3953 expected
  • GAAP EPS: $0.60
  • Adjusted Gross Margin: 44.1%

Q4 Guidance:

  • Revenue: $15.0B–$16.0B
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.25
  • Adjusted Gross Margin: 38.0%

Quick Read:

  • Strong Quarter, Weak Outlook: Intel beat its revenue guidance and topped EPS expectations, but its Q4 outlook calls for a sharp sequential decline in profitability, with adjusted EPS falling to $0.25.
  • Data Center Demand Explodes: Intel’s data center revenue surged 78% to $7.3 billion, its fastest growth in 15 years. However, management warned that supply constraints remain a major bottleneck, while the PC slowdown could continue through the first half of 2027.

Despite impressive AI-driven data center demand, investors appear concerned about Intel’s weaker near-term outlook, sending shares plunging 20% after hours.

Intel's Key Takeaways From Last Quarter

Thomas Richmond
INTC
Intel

Last quarter — Q2 2026

3:20pm ET

EPS
$0.42vs $0.22 est +93.1%
Revenue
$16.13Bvs $14.45B est +11.6%
Earnings-day move -7.9%Since report -8.9%

Intel's July quarter showed the foundry-era cost cuts and stronger-than-expected demand flowing straight to the bottom line, yet the stock declined after the report and stayed there. For tonight, server CPU supply constraints and any read on 2026 PC demand are the key variables.

Price since the report

$131$105$78

Reported Thu, Jul 23 · next print Thu, Oct 29

Intel Options Traders Lean Bullish Ahead of Earnings

Thomas Richmond
INTC
Intel

Options positioning

3:25pm ET

Put/call 0.79Balanced
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
154.7%
Expiry
Fri, Oct 30chain as of Wed, Oct 28

Friday expiry options are priced for chaos, with at-the-money implied volatility at 154.7% on the $96 strike. A 0.79 put/call ratio says traders are leaning call-heavy into the earnings report, and call open interest at $95 and $96 dwarfs the puts there, though crowded one-sided positioning has just as often marked the point where the opposite move begins.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $93

    3k / 4.2k

  • $94

    1.7k / 3.3k

  • $95

    5.7k / 11.5k

  • $96

    1.1k / 9.1k

  • $97

    719 / 4.1k

  • $98

    999 / 3.4k

Intel Q3 Earnings Preview: What to Expect After Earnings

Thomas Richmond
INTC
Intel

Earnings preview · Q3 2026

3:10pm ET

Reports
Thu, Oct 29After close
Consensus EPS
$0.40
Consensus revenue
$16.47B

Intel's last four reports moved the stock 17% to 24% in one direction or the other, so tonight's numbers land on a $482.4 billion company. Foundry progress and the server CPU supply crunch are what decide whether the year-to-date gain holds.

What to watch
  • Whether server CPU supply constraints eased or capped data center revenue
  • Foundry operating losses and any update on external customer commitments
  • Gross margin trajectory as 18A wafers ramp
  • Capex plans and the pace of CHIPS-related funding milestones
EPS surprise vs consensus Beat 5 of last 6
  • Q1 2025

    +2788.9%

  • Q2 2025

    -1175.3%

  • Q3 2025

    +3050.7%

  • Q4 2025

    +80.7%

  • Q1 2026

    +2183.5%

  • Q2 2026

    +93.1%

Earnings-day stock move · last 4 reports
  • Q3 2025

    +0.3%

  • Q4 2025

    -17.0%

  • Q1 2026

    +23.6%

  • Q2 2026

    -7.9%

Intel Dumps 4% Today: Will the Stock Rally on Earnings?

Thomas Richmond
INTC
Intel

Regular session

3:15pm ET

$91.30
-4.43%
open $95.53

$94$92$91

A 4.43% drop to $91.30 takes roughly $21 billion off Intel's $481.9 billion market cap in a single session. Keep an eye on whether the $91 handle holds into the close.

Analysts' Top Questions Ahead of Intel's Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
INTC
Intel

Call preview · Q3 2026

3:15pm ET

Thu, Oct 29
Earnings call · after close

Six topics have come up on every one of Intel's last four calls, and the one that decides tonight's reaction is capacity: analysts have pressed on supply constraints and capacity expansion in each quarter, and the server CPU shortage flagged earlier this afternoon is where management's answer lands first. Foundry node progress and the capex needed to fund it run a close second, since both feed the gross margin drop-through question that keeps resurfacing.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
  • Supply constraints & capacity expansion
  • Foundry momentum & node progress
  • Server competition & TAM growth
  • CapEx strategy & foundry investment
  • Client demand & PC inventory
  • Gross margin & incremental drop-through

Intel Crashes 20% in a Month Ahead of Tonight's Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond

Intel heads into Q3 earnings tonight under pressure, with shares down 20.55% over the past month despite an extraordinary 149.84% year-to-date rally.

Wall Street expects $0.3953 in adjusted EPS, slightly above management’s $0.38 guidance, following 30 upward analyst revisions.

The biggest question is whether Intel can overcome its server CPU supply constraints. Management has been shifting wafer production toward data center chips, but tight Intel 3 capacity continues to limit output.

Meanwhile, Intel plans to spend more than $20 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, with spending expected to climb significantly in 2027.

Analysts have an average price target of $117.71, compared with the stock’s recent $92.19 price. Stronger supply improvements could reignite Intel’s rally, while another disappointing quarter could extend its recent selloff.

View the full live blog (10 updates) →