Hims & Hers Health is expected to report Q3 earnings tonight at 4:05 PM ET, and shares plunged 10.54% today, even after the company announced a deal involving Lilly’s GLP-1 weight-loss treatments just days before earnings.
Wall Street expects $892.77 million in revenue, near the top of management’s $880 million to $900 million guidance range.
However, profitability remains a major concern. Gross margins recently fell to 64% from 76%, reflecting a changing revenue mix toward branded GLP-1 medications and the Eucalyptus business.
Looking further ahead, management is targeting $6.5 billion in annual revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030.
The big question tonight is whether Hims & Hers can prove its rapidly expanding weight-loss business can deliver sustainable profits, or if the company will face continued margin pressure.
“Hims & Hers can scale beyond GLP-1s into a global subscription health platform without breaking margins”
Bull case
Revenue up 49% YoY, a second straight quarter of acceleration
International revenue up more than 300% YoY, with Rest of World +321%
Domestic revenue still growing 21% YoY off a much larger base
Q4 guidance of $875M to $895M keeps the top line near record levels
Bear case
Gross margin at 57% versus 74% a year ago
GAAP net loss of $33.0 million against year-ago net income
Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance cut to $257M to $277M
Restructuring charges tied to the U.S. weight loss strategic shift
The 17-point gross margin drop is what tips it: growth is accelerating, but each new dollar now arrives at nearly half the old profitability, and management lowered full-year EBITDA rather than defend it. The pre-report setup we flagged this afternoon asked whether the Lilly deal could be paired with margin discipline, and tonight the answer is no. A Q4 report holding the 8% to 10% EBITDA margin with international still compounding would pull this back to intact.
Gross margin collapsed to 57% from 74% a year ago, turning 49% revenue growth into a loss where analysts modeled a profit. Management also trimmed full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $257 million to $277 million, so the international land grab is costing more than the top line implies.
Hims & Hers Health just reported Q3 2026 earnings, with shares initially down 10% following the report. Revenue, earnings, and guidance all fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
Revenue: $890.4 million vs. $893 million expected 🔴
EPS: -$0.14 vs. $0.06 expected 🔴
Adjusted EBITDA: $82.4 million vs. $85.1 million expected 🔴
Gross Margin: 57%, down 17 percentage points year over year
Free Cash Flow: $26 million
Guidance:
Q4 Revenue: $875M–$895M vs. $953M expected 🔴
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA: $70M–$90M vs. $107M expected 🔴
FY26 Revenue: $3.13B–$3.15B vs. $3.21B expected 🔴
FY26 Adjusted EBITDA: $257M–$277M vs. $295M expected 🔴
Quick Read:
Revenue soared 49% year over year, driven by strong international growth of 321%, but earnings missed expectations and gross margins contracted sharply.
Weak guidance is the biggest concern, with Q4 revenue projected well below Wall Street estimates and adjusted EBITDA also falling short, raising questions about profitability heading into 2027.
Today's slide leaves Hims & Hers at $23.31, below both the 50-day ($28.32) and 200-day ($26.88), so the only thing standing between the earnings reaction and open air is support at $21.53. Reclaiming the averages would take a move through $26.88 first, with resistance stacked at $29.85 and $31.80 beyond that. The 52-week range of $13.74 to $48.34 shows how wide the swings have been.
At 143.9% implied volatility on the 26.5 strike, the Nov. 13 options are priced for a violent reaction to tonight's Q3 report. The 0.72 put/call ratio reads as call-leaning positioning into the Eli Lilly deal, though the heaviest open interest sits in puts at 26 and 25, so the downside hedges are stacked right where the stock is trading. Call open interest piles up at 27, giving the upside a wall to clear.
Traders on Polymarket price Hims & Hers at under 50% odds to beat on GAAP EPS tonight, pricing the same skepticism the 10% selloff showed. Volume is thin, so the signal is soft, but it lines up with a track record of only one beat in seven tries.
GLP-1 strategy has come up on all four of the last calls, and this time analysts get to ask about it with the Eli Lilly deal only days old. Margin trajectory and EBITDA guidance have been just as persistent a thread, so the answer that likely decides the after-hours move is whether management can pair the new branded supply with a credible profitability path. Regulatory questions on peptides, live in each of the last three calls, are the wildcard.
One beat in seven tries, and the last two quarters missed by orders of magnitude, so tonight is about whether Hims & Hers can finally land a bottom line anywhere near where Wall Street has it. The stock has fallen on each of the last four reports, and after this afternoon's 10% slide the Eli Lilly partnership announced days ago now has to carry the story.
What to watch
Gross margin trajectory as branded GLP-1 supply replaces compounded doses
Any revenue or economics detail tied to the new Eli Lilly arrangement
Q4 guidance and whether management reaffirms the full-year outlook
Subscriber growth and retention in the weight-loss category
Hims & Hers gave back nearly 10% from a $26 open on the day its Eli Lilly deal press release landed. Eli Lilly is up 3.08%, with the partnership not translating into credit for the telehealth side.
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