Live update #6

HIMS Options Are Pricing In Chaos Ahead of Tonight’s Earnings

From live coverage: Live: Will HIMS Q3 Earnings Tonight Spark a Rebound After Today's 10% Selloff?
HIMS
Hims & Hers

Options positioning


Put/call 0.72Balanced
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
143.9%
Expiry
Fri, Nov 13chain as of Fri, Nov 6

At 143.9% implied volatility on the 26.5 strike, the Nov. 13 options are priced for a violent reaction to tonight's Q3 report. The 0.72 put/call ratio reads as call-leaning positioning into the Eli Lilly deal, though the heaviest open interest sits in puts at 26 and 25, so the downside hedges are stacked right where the stock is trading. Call open interest piles up at 27, giving the upside a wall to clear.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $25

    815 / 230

  • $25.5

    317 / 340

  • $26

    915 / 351

  • $26.5

    220 / 133

  • $27

    416 / 1k

  • $27.5

    267 / 515

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Hims & Hers Q3 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of HIMS’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!

HIMS Bull vs Bear Case After Tonight's Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
HIMS
Hims & Hers

Thesis check

4:20pm ET

weakening$22.94 -11.8% today
“Hims & Hers can scale beyond GLP-1s into a global subscription health platform without breaking margins”

Bull case
  • Revenue up 49% YoY, a second straight quarter of acceleration
  • International revenue up more than 300% YoY, with Rest of World +321%
  • Domestic revenue still growing 21% YoY off a much larger base
  • Q4 guidance of $875M to $895M keeps the top line near record levels
Bear case
  • Gross margin at 57% versus 74% a year ago
  • GAAP net loss of $33.0 million against year-ago net income
  • Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance cut to $257M to $277M
  • Restructuring charges tied to the U.S. weight loss strategic shift

The 17-point gross margin drop is what tips it: growth is accelerating, but each new dollar now arrives at nearly half the old profitability, and management lowered full-year EBITDA rather than defend it. The pre-report setup we flagged this afternoon asked whether the Lilly deal could be paired with margin discipline, and tonight the answer is no. A Q4 report holding the 8% to 10% EBITDA margin with international still compounding would pull this back to intact.

Hims & Hers Q3 Earnings at a Glance

Thomas Richmond
HIMS
Hims & Hers

Q3 2026

4:11pm ET

EPS
-$0.14
est $0.06
-348.7%

Revenue
$890M
est $893M
-0.3%

Gross margin collapsed to 57% from 74% a year ago, turning 49% revenue growth into a loss where analysts modeled a profit. Management also trimmed full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $257 million to $277 million, so the international land grab is costing more than the top line implies.

HIMS Q3 Earnings Are Out - Stock Plunges 10% on Misses Across the Board

Thomas Richmond

Hims & Hers Health just reported Q3 2026 earnings, with shares initially down 10% following the report. Revenue, earnings, and guidance all fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.

  • Revenue: $890.4 million vs. $893 million expected 🔴
  • EPS: -$0.14 vs. $0.06 expected 🔴
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $82.4 million vs. $85.1 million expected 🔴
  • Gross Margin: 57%, down 17 percentage points year over year
  • Free Cash Flow: $26 million

Guidance:

  • Q4 Revenue: $875M–$895M vs. $953M expected 🔴
  • Q4 Adjusted EBITDA: $70M–$90M vs. $107M expected 🔴
  • FY26 Revenue: $3.13B–$3.15B vs. $3.21B expected 🔴
  • FY26 Adjusted EBITDA: $257M–$277M vs. $295M expected 🔴

Quick Read:

Revenue soared 49% year over year, driven by strong international growth of 321%, but earnings missed expectations and gross margins contracted sharply.

Weak guidance is the biggest concern, with Q4 revenue projected well below Wall Street estimates and adjusted EBITDA also falling short, raising questions about profitability heading into 2027.

HIMS's Technical Setup Ahead of Tonight's Q3 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
HIMS
Hims & Hers

Technical setup

3:20pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Mon, Nov 9
  • R2$31.80+36.4%
  • R1$29.85+28.1%
  • Now$23.31
  • S1$21.53-7.6%
50-day avg
$28.32-17.7% below
200-day avg
$26.88-13.3% below
52-week range
$13.74 – $48.34

Today's slide leaves Hims & Hers at $23.31, below both the 50-day ($28.32) and 200-day ($26.88), so the only thing standing between the earnings reaction and open air is support at $21.53. Reclaiming the averages would take a move through $26.88 first, with resistance stacked at $29.85 and $31.80 beyond that. The 52-week range of $13.74 to $48.34 shows how wide the swings have been.

Polymarket: 45% Odds HIMS Beats Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
HIMS
Hims & Hers

Prediction markets

3:15pm ET

Will Hims & Hers (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?
45%Yes
Polymarket · $4k traded · resolves Mon, Nov 9

Traders on Polymarket price Hims & Hers at under 50% odds to beat on GAAP EPS tonight, pricing the same skepticism the 10% selloff showed. Volume is thin, so the signal is soft, but it lines up with a track record of only one beat in seven tries.

Analysts' Top Questions for HIMS Ahead of Q3 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
HIMS
Hims & Hers

Call preview · Q3 2026

3:00pm ET

Mon, Nov 9
Earnings call · after close

GLP-1 strategy has come up on all four of the last calls, and this time analysts get to ask about it with the Eli Lilly deal only days old. Margin trajectory and EBITDA guidance have been just as persistent a thread, so the answer that likely decides the after-hours move is whether management can pair the new branded supply with a credible profitability path. Regulatory questions on peptides, live in each of the last three calls, are the wildcard.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
  • GLP-1 strategy & Novo partnership
  • Margin trajectory & EBITDA guidance
  • International expansion & Eucalyptus
  • Personalization and specialty expansion
  • AI, labs, and wearables strategy
  • Regulatory environment & peptides

Hims & Hers Q3 Earnings Preview: What Investors Should Know

Thomas Richmond
HIMS
Hims & Hers

Earnings preview · Q3 2026

2:55pm ET

Reports
Mon, Nov 9After close
Consensus EPS
$0.06
Consensus revenue
$893M

One beat in seven tries, and the last two quarters missed by orders of magnitude, so tonight is about whether Hims & Hers can finally land a bottom line anywhere near where Wall Street has it. The stock has fallen on each of the last four reports, and after this afternoon's 10% slide the Eli Lilly partnership announced days ago now has to carry the story.

What to watch
  • Gross margin trajectory as branded GLP-1 supply replaces compounded doses
  • Any revenue or economics detail tied to the new Eli Lilly arrangement
  • Q4 guidance and whether management reaffirms the full-year outlook
  • Subscriber growth and retention in the weight-loss category
EPS surprise vs consensus Beat 1 of last 7
  • Q2 2022

    -11.1%

  • Q1 2025

    -12.3%

  • Q2 2025

    -25.8%

  • Q3 2025

    -41.0%

  • Q4 2025

    +92.3%

  • Q1 2026

    -1266.2%

  • Q2 2026

    -640.0%

Earnings-day stock move · last 4 reports
  • Q3 2025

    -3.6%

  • Q4 2025

    -0.3%

  • Q1 2026

    -14.1%

  • Q2 2026

    -4.0%

HIMS Fell 10% Today While the Market Rallied - What That Means for Q3 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
HIMS
Hims & Hers

Regular session

2:55pm ET

$23.41
-9.98%
off the open $26.00

$25$24$23

Hims & Hers gave back nearly 10% from a $26 open on the day its Eli Lilly deal press release landed. Eli Lilly is up 3.08%, with the partnership not translating into credit for the telehealth side.

Before the move last 24 hours
  1. Nov 9, 11:08 AM ETPress release

    Hims & Hers Lilly deal press release

    PR Newswire
Related stocks today

Moves: Nov 9, 2:40 PM ET · Alpha Vantage quote

Hims & Hers Crashes 10% Ahead of Q3 Earnings Despite Major Eli Lilly Deal

Thomas Richmond

Hims & Hers Health is expected to report Q3 earnings tonight at 4:05 PM ET, and shares plunged 10.54% today, even after the company announced a deal involving Lilly’s GLP-1 weight-loss treatments just days before earnings.

Wall Street expects $892.77 million in revenue, near the top of management’s $880 million to $900 million guidance range.

However, profitability remains a major concern. Gross margins recently fell to 64% from 76%, reflecting a changing revenue mix toward branded GLP-1 medications and the Eucalyptus business.

Looking further ahead, management is targeting $6.5 billion in annual revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030.

The big question tonight is whether Hims & Hers can prove its rapidly expanding weight-loss business can deliver sustainable profits, or if the company will face continued margin pressure.

View the full live blog (11 updates) →