Rocket Lab Imploded, Falling 45% in 6 Months: Here’s Why One Analyst Predicts 160% Returns From Today
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Shares of Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) trade at $58.86. Wall Street’s average price target is $102.15, which works out to 73.5% implied upside.
Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company. It flies the Electron small-lift rocket and the HASTE suborbital version for hypersonic testing, and it makes satellites and spacecraft components. It is also developing Neutron, a reusable medium-lift rocket. Analysts are focused on a record $3.57 billion backlog and the pending Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) acquisition. The most bullish target, $150.00 from Citizens JMP analyst Trevor Walsh, means about 155% upside from here.
Neutron Slips to 2027 and Rocket Lab Loses Half Its Value
The Neutron delay did the most damage. Neutron’s first launch is now no earlier than 2027. As recently as the second-quarter call, management still targeted getting the rocket to the pad in Q4 2026. The stock has fallen 49.84% over six months, from $117.35. That puts the stock deep in selloff territory.
Dilution added to the pain. Rocket Lab raised $1.08 billion through its at-the-market equity program in a single quarter, and it is funding Iridium through an ATM equity offering. Margins also slipped, with non-GAAP gross margin falling to 38.4% from 41.9%. Third-quarter GAAP EPS of -$0.12 missed the -$0.0665 estimate. One-time items caused most of the miss: a $27.259 million debt extinguishment loss and $21.340 million in Iridium transaction costs. Jim Cramer summed it up on Mad Money: “Some delays, some dilution. Lower margins can even bring down rocket stocks.”
Analysts Are Looking Past the Delay to a Record Backlog
Third-quarter revenue hit $267.834 million, up 72.71% and beating the $257.18 million consensus. Backlog rose 52% from Q2. That includes about $1.00 billion in new launch contracts and $470M in Space Systems awards signed in the quarter.
Neutron demand looks strong despite the delay. The rocket has a 16-mission backlog worth more than $515M, and the base price has been raised to $70M for several missions. CEO Peter Beck has said “I’ve never seen launch so constrained.” Walsh’s thesis rests on Electron’s dominance outside SpaceX, the Neutron catalyst and higher-margin Space Systems growth.
The CFO said “The first successful flight will drive adjusted EBITDA positivity in the following quarter,” with cash flow turning positive 18 to 24 months later. With $4.448B in cash, Rocket Lab can afford to wait.
Ratings remain skewed: five Strong Buy, 13 Buy and four Hold, with no Sells. Estimates tell a more conservative story. The 2027 EPS consensus has declined to -0.0912 from -0.0273 90 days ago, and four revisions have gone down in the past month.
Space Peers Fell Just as Hard and Carry Bigger Targets
Rocket Lab is part of a group selloff. Its peers have fallen alongside it.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trades at $36.89, down 49.21% year to date. Its $74.68 target means 102.4% upside. Analysts are split, with one Strong Buy, four Buy, six Hold, one Sell and one Strong Sell. The potential upside beats Rocket Lab’s, but analysts are far less confident.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) trades at $12.04, down 25.82% this year. Its $27.11 target means 125.2% upside from nine Buy ratings and one Strong Sell, though its shareholders’ equity is negative at -$290.1 million.
Intuitive Machines has the largest implied upside among them. Rocket Lab has the smallest but the deepest support among analysts. Targets for all three are estimates, and none of them is guaranteed.
Rocket Lab Trails the S&P 500 by a Wide Margin This Year
Rocket Lab is down 15.63% year to date. The S&P 500 is up 10.38%. Over the past month, the stock lost 13.71% and the index fell 3.32%. The stock gained 10.91% in the latest session.
At $58.86, shares sit well below the $102.15 consensus from 22 analysts. The 52-week range runs from $37.57 to $151, and a beta of 3.176 means the stock tends to move far more than the market in either direction.
Neutron’s 2027 Flight Will Decide Rocket Lab’s Next Move
Things look more bullish if Neutron reaches orbit in 2027 and the backlog keeps converting at the pace means by $270M-$290M in fourth-quarter revenue guidance. The thesis weakens if Neutron slips again, Iridium integration stumbles, or dilution keeps going. Basic share count guidance has already rose to 681M.
The setup for Rocket Lab leans positive, with clear risks. The backlog and the cash on hand give real support to the thesis. Still, the consensus target only makes sense if Neutron flies, so the stock’s path depends on a single test flight.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
