Live: Is Samsara (IOT) Ready to Jump Post-Earnings Tonight?
Key Points
- Guidance implies steady 20%+ growth; watch if elongated sales cycles normalize after Q1 timing effects.
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Enterprise attach broadens: $100k+ ARR customers +35% YoY; DBNR ~115% highlights durable expansion.
- OEM integrations (Hyundai Translead, Stellantis, Rivian) and software-only SKUs could lift margins over time.
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Final Reactions
| Metric | Prior Street | New Company Guide | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY26 Revenue | $1.55B | $1.574–1.578B | ▲ |
| FY26 EPS | $0.41 | $0.45–0.47 | ▲ |
Sentiment Signals:
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Bullish: 30% ARR growth, big customer expansion, raised guide.
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Neutral: Still posting GAAP net losses.
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Bearish: Heavy stock-based comp ($81M in Q2) remains a drag.
What Changed This Quarter
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Revenue growth held at 30% YoY, while most SaaS peers are decelerating.
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Operating leverage jumped 9 pts YoY as sales & marketing efficiency improved.
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Cash flow conversion strengthened — now generating double-digit free cash flow margins.
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International and vertical expansions (transportation, logistics, industrials) remain strong growth vectors.
Key Operating Highlights
- ARR: $1.64B, +30% YoY.
- Large customer momentum: 2,771 customers >$100K ARR (up from 2,120 last year).
- Customers >$1M ARR now >20% of total ARR.
- Non-GAAP operating margin 15%, up from 6% a year ago.
- Free cash flow: $44M, margin 11% vs. 4% last year.
Guidance Update
Across-the-board raises show confidence in sustaining 20%+ growth into FY26
| Period | New Guidance | Street Consensus | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Rev | $398–400M | ~$386M | 📈 Raised |
| Q3 EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.11–0.12 | ~$0.10 | 📈 Raised |
| FY26 Rev | $1.574–1.578B | $1.55B | 📈 Raised |
| FY26 EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.45–0.47 | $0.41 | 📈 Raised |
Management Commentary
CEO Sanjit Biswas: “We’re seeing firsthand how the rise of the AI-driven economy is amplifying demand for our platform. We are innovating at an unprecedented pace and are excited to deliver even greater impact for our customers.
Message: AI workflows are driving secular demand tailwinds, strengthening conviction in long-term growth.
Solid Beat By IOT
Samsara (IOT) Q2 FY2026 Post-Earnings Recap — stock up ~7.7% AH as execution stays strong:
First Take
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $391.5M | $372.2M | ✅ Beat |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.12 | $0.07 | ✅ Beat |
| ARR | $1.64B | $1.55B | ✅ Beat |
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Shares rally ~7–8% AH after a broad beat on revenue, EPS, and ARR.
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Street reaction centers on durable 30% growth with margin leverage, proving IOT remains one of SaaS’s cleanest growth stories.
Earnings History & Price Reaction
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +83.33% | −4.55% | −17.21% | −15.94% |
| Q4 2025 | +57.14% | −15.57% | −6.97% | −0.50% |
| Q3 2025 | +75.00% | −5.19% | −14.46% | −17.36% |
| Q2 2025 | +400.00% | +13.60% | +21.14% | +27.43% |
Average 7-day move (last 4): −4.37%
Samsara (Nasdaq:IOT) enters Q2 with momentum — ARR reached $1.54B (+31% YoY), non-GAAP gross margin hit a record 79%, and operating margin rose to 14% last quarter. Management flagged elongated sales cycles tied to tariff-driven customer spending priorities, but noted many deals closed in May and Q1 pipeline hit a record; Q2 guide calls for revenue of $371–$373M and non-GAAP EPS of $0.06–$0.07. Dollar-based net retention ran about 115%, and large-customer count ($100k+ ARR) climbed to 2,638 (+35% YoY).
What to Expect When Samsara Reports
Wall Street’s consensus for Q2 FY26 (July quarter) and beyond:
- Revenue (Q2): $372.22M
- EPS (Q2): $0.07
- FY2026: $1.55B revenue, $0.41 EPS
- FY2027: $1.89B revenue, $0.51 EPS
Key Areas to Watch Tonight
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Deal timing vs. demand. Q1 billings were light on timing as incentives reduced early renewals; the company still expects ~24% FY26 revenue growth and ~13% operating margin. Track Q2 commentary for normalization.
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Multiproduct expansion. 95% of $100k+ customers use two or more products; 66% use three or more. Upsell breadth is the core DBNR driver.
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OEM & software-only mix. New integrations with Hyundai Translead, Stellantis, and Rivian reduce friction and should be margin-accretive as they scale; asset-tags and other software-only SKUs are also GM positive.
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International acceleration. 18% of net-new ACV came from international (record mix), with Europe the standout; look for continued strength.
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Vertical/AI momentum. Transportation growth hit a multi-year high; AI-driven safety and maintenance workflows (e.g., predictive fault insights) underpin larger expansions.
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