My takeaway
Live Blog Update #8 Published
← Back to Full Coverage: Live: Will Oracle Pop After Earnings Tonight?
The big takeaway here is the better color on guidance is a much bigger win than quarterly revenue or EPS. The stock is now up 22.36% after-hours.
- Bullish: Massive backlog, AI Database catalyst, multi-cloud momentum.
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Bearish: GAAP/FCF drag from capex and restructuring.
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Neutral: Street will watch how $455B backlog converts into OCI revenue.
All Updates from Live Coverage
Live
Cloud revenue expected to almost double to $18 billion with backlog growing 360% TO $455 billion.
Live
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Backlog regime-shift: RPO vaulted to $455B; management expects >$500B soon.
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Multi-cloud flywheel: DB revenue via AWS/GCP/Azure up 1,529%, aided by 37 more partner datacenters coming online.
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AI product shot: Teasing Oracle AI Database (LLM-on-DB) to tap installed-base data directly—an adoption accelerant.
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P&L mix: Cloud +28% (IaaS +55%); Software license/support flat to down; restructuring expense stepped up.
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Capital intensity: Capex spiked again; TTM FCF negative as Oracle races to provision capacity for booked demand.
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Capital returns: $0.50 quarterly dividend maintained.
Live
Demand is concentrating in OCI + multi-cloud database, while elevated capex (capacity build-out) and restructuring weigh on GAAP optics near-term.
| KPI | Result | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $14.9B | +12% |
| Cloud (IaaS+SaaS) | $7.2B | +28% |
| Cloud Infra (IaaS) | $3.3B | +55% |
| Cloud Apps (SaaS) | $3.8B | +11% |
| Fusion ERP (SaaS) | $1.0B | +17% |
| NetSuite ERP (SaaS) | $1.0B | +16% |
| RPO | $455B | +359% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.47 | +6% |
| GAAP EPS | $1.01 | –2% |
| 12-mo Op Cash Flow | $21.5B | +13% |
| Capex (quarter) | $8.5B | ↑ sharply |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | –$5.9B | down on capex |
Live
Oracle didn’t issue traditional FY revenue/EPS guidance. Instead, it raised the Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) long-term plan and telegraphed more mega-deals.
| Item | Prior Color | New Color | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCI FY26 revenue | — | $18B (~+77%) | 📈 Raised (new) |
| OCI LT outlook (next 4 yrs) | — | $32B → $73B → $114B → $144B | 📈 Raised (new) |
| RPO (backlog) | $99B (FY25 Q4) | $455B (+359% YoY) | 📈 Surged |
| Dividend | $0.50/qtr | $0.50 declared | ⚖️ Flat |
Street models likely lift OCI growth trajectories and long-dated revenue, even if near-term EPS is pressured by capex and restructuring/tax items.
Live
“We signed four multi-billion-dollar contracts…RPO backlog increasing 359% to $455B…We expect to sign several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars.” — Safra Catz, CEO
“MultiCloud database revenue from Amazon, Google and Microsoft grew 1,529%…Next month we’ll introduce the Oracle AI Database, enabling customers to use LLMs (Gemini, ChatGPT, Grok, etc.) directly on top of the Oracle Database.” — Larry Ellison, Chairman & CTO
Backlog scale and multi-cloud distribution are accelerating, while the AI Database pitch is designed to unlock Oracle’s massive installed-base data with LLMs—driving future consumption.
Live
Oracle is up over 7% numbers.
| Metric | Reported | Consensus (prev) | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.9B | ~$15.0B | ❌ |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $1.47 | ~$1.48 | ❌ |
Tiny headline misses, monster demand signals. The RPO explosion to $455B (+359% YoY) plus a bold OCI revenue path ($18B this year → $32B/$73B/$114B/$144B) more than explains the rally. Multi-cloud DB + AI positioning is doing the heavy lifting.
Live
Oracle has beaten in 2 of the last 4 quarters, but stock reaction has been consistently negative to muted, showing high skepticism despite delivery.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | +3.37% | –3.4% | –5.1% | –6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | –1.30% | –1.2% | +2.0% | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | –0.77% | –3.0% | –4.6% | –7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | +4.29% | –1.7% | –0.4% | –2.2% |
Live
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Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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