As Wall Street Cuts Tesla, Morgan Stanley Raises Its Apple Target
Tesla just delivered one of its ugliest earnings prints in years while Apple quietly shattered revenue records, and the gap between these two titans is widening fast enough to reshape how analysts are pricing both stocks right now.
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Wall Street is cutting Tesla after a bruising earnings miss, while Apple’s analyst community quietly nudges targets higher on a surging iPhone 17 cycle. Our proprietary model reflects that divergence.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) closed at $325.89 on July 22, and the 24/7 Wall St. price target for Apple is $361.72, implying 11% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is a buy at a 90% confidence level.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $325.89 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $361.72 |
| Upside | 11.0% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
An iPhone 17 Cycle That Keeps Surprising to the Upside
Apple shares are up 20.1% year to date, 9.72% in the last month, and 52.61% over the trailing year.
Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue climbed 16.6% year over year to $111.18 billion, EPS came in at $2.01 versus $1.94 expected, and iPhone revenue surged to $56.99 billion on what Tim Cook called “extraordinary demand for iPhone 17 lineup.”
Services set an all-time record at $30.98 billion. Bloomberg reports Apple is preparing a major Mac refresh this fall including its first OLED touchscreen MacBook Pro, and prediction markets price a 96.6% probability that an iPhone 18 launches in 2026.
The Case for $380 and Higher
Apple’s installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices becomes the launchpad for a Services business compounding at double-digit rates, a paid Apple Intelligence tier, and a rumored foldable iPhone (prediction markets assign 88.5% odds of a foldable arriving before 2027).
Layer on a fresh $100 billion buyback authorization and expanding operating margins, and our internal bull case lands at $378.01, a 16% one-year return. That aligns with the AI-driven Mac refresh narrative.
What Could Go Wrong
Apple lost a $634 million Masimo patent verdict appeal, Greater China revenue remains lumpy, and tariff escalation would hit component supply. The consensus analyst target of $318.25 sits below the current price.
Our bear case pegs Apple at $307.39, a 5.68% pullback. Insider activity has been net selling. The P/E ratio of 43 looks stretched only if you ignore that quarterly earnings just grew 21.8%, which arguably justifies the multiple.
How Apple Stacks Up Against Tesla and Microsoft
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) just missed Q2 EPS at $0.33 versus $0.54 expected, printed negative $1.09 billion in free cash flow, and trades at a forward P/E of 161 versus Apple’s 34. Tesla is down 16.83% year to date while Apple is up 20%. That valuation gap makes our Apple target look conservative on a growth-adjusted basis.
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is the truer valuation peer, a scaled valuation peer with a diversified AI-driven software portfolio. Apple carries the richer multiple, but its 46.9% gross margin and Services flywheel support the premium. Against this peer set, our $361.72 target reads as reasonable.
| Company | Forward P/E | YTD Return |
|---|---|---|
| Apple | 34 | 20.1% |
| Tesla | 161 | -16.83% |
The Bull Case Framework for Apple
The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Apple is $361.72, a buy at 90% confidence. Earnings acceleration of 21.8% YoY growth into an installed base of 2.5 billion devices is rare at this market cap.
I would buy if iPhone 17 momentum carries into a strong holiday quarter and Services stays above $30 billion. I would stay on the sidelines if China revenue weakens materially or tariffs hit margins.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $361.72 |
These projections assume Apple executes on Services growth and the iPhone upgrade cycle. Significant upside or downside could result from a foldable iPhone launch, Apple Intelligence monetization, or a China revenue reset.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial copywriter who loves to read and write about stocks. She believes in buying and holding for long term gains. Her knowledge of words and numbers helps her write clear stock analysis. She has contributed to several publications, including the Joy Wallet, Benzinga, The Motley Fool and InvestorPlace.
