Live update #1

Palo Alto Networks Reports Q4 Earnings Tonight: NGS ARR Is the Number to Watch

Palo Alto Networks reports Q4 FY26 earnings after the bell, with Wall Street focused on $3.35 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS guidance of $0.96-$0.98.

The bigger number may be Next-Generation Security ARR. Management guided for $8.90 billion to $8.95 billion, representing 59-60% growth, with investors watching closely for CyberArk’s contribution.

Expectations are high. Palo Alto shares have roughly doubled year to date as investors bet on platformization, AI security demand, and a longer-term path toward 40% free cash flow margins. Yet each of the company’s last three earnings beats was followed by a negative day-of stock reaction.

A clean beat and strong FY27 outlook could validate the rally. Any softness in NGS ARR or cautious forward guidance could quickly put the stock’s premium valuation under pressure.

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Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Palo Alto’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Thomas Richmond

Palo Alto Networks just reported earnings with shares initially up 6% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $3.41 billion vs. $3.35 billion expected
  • Adjusted EPS: $1.02 vs. $0.98 expected
  • NGS ARR: $9.10 billion, up 63% year over year
  • Free Cash Flow: $1.3 billion

Guidance:

  • Q1 Revenue: $3.30 billion to $3.31 billion vs. $3.22 billion expected
  • Q1 EPS: $0.96 to $0.98
  • FY27 Revenue: $14.10 billion to $14.20 billion vs. $13.83 billion expected
  • FY27 EPS: $4.16 to $4.19

Quick Read:

  • Beat-and-raise across the board: Palo Alto topped Q4 revenue and EPS estimates while both Q1 and full-year revenue guidance came in ahead of Wall Street expectations.
  • NGS growth is the standout: NGS ARR surged 63% to $9.10 billion, with nearly $1 billion of net new ARR added during Q4, reinforcing the company’s AI and platformization growth story.
Thomas Richmond

Consensus for Q4 sits at $0.9777 EPS on $3.35 billion in revenue, essentially matching management’s own range. The real event is the first FY27 outlook.

Wall Street currently models $13.84 billion in FY27 revenue, with EPS estimates trimmed to $1.9418 from $2.3309 ninety days ago on 7 downward revisions.

CEO Nikesh Arora has beaten and raised for five straight quarters, so a conservative guide is baked in.

Bullish scenario: FY27 revenue above $14B, NGS ARR growth above 40%, and FCF margin tracking toward the 40% fiscal 2028 target early.

Bearish scenario: revenue below $13.5B, Q1 EPS under $0.4375 consensus, or FCF margin stalling at 37.5%. With shares already off 5.79% intraday, the guide dictates the next leg.

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