Why This Analyst Sees Over 40% Upside in Tesla

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Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed out the week on a positive note after the firm received an incredibly bullish call. In fact, the target issued is the new street high. Although Tesla has seen some difficulty with its Model 3 recently, that didn’t seem to hold back the longer-term outlook that Nomura Instinet took on the stock.

Romit Shah was the analyst on the call, and he issued a Buy rating for Tesla with a $500 price target, implying upside of about 44% from the prior closing price of $348.14. According to the report, the firm will see unprecedented revenue gains, which are expected to rise from $8 billion in 2016 to as high as $58 billion by 2021. This is a roughly a 625% gain in revenue over five years.

In the report, Shah draws a parallel between Tesla and Intel in the 1990s. He suggests revenues can scale this rapidly, when the firm owns both the manufacturing and much of the supply chain.

Shah points out the limiting factor for Intel’s PCs at that time was processor performance, whereas for EVs it is cost and battery range. Currently the Model 3 costs $140 per mile of range, compared with the competition’s $236 per mile of range, according to the analyst.

Another main assumption in Shah’s report is that Tesla will benefit from largely inferior competition, which could drive the growth he is suggesting. Shah also believes that Tesla will work though its current issues with its Model 3 production, ultimately generating upward of mid-to-high 20% gross margins by 2020.

For every point one analyst seems to make on Tesla there is a counterpoint. And there are other analysts that don’t subscribe to Tesla, and actually believe that other companies such as General Motors (NYSE: GM) will more than overtake Musk’s operation. Deutsche Bank takes a different perspective on Tesla and has a Hold rating on the stock.

Shares of Tesla were closed out the week at $356.88, with a consensus analyst price target of $318.63 and a 52-week range of $178.19 to $389.61.